{"id":4068,"date":"2023-03-14T15:41:52","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T12:41:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4068"},"modified":"2025-08-03T11:08:39","modified_gmt":"2025-08-03T08:08:39","slug":"covid-dolari-tahtindan-indirir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/covid-dolari-tahtindan-indirir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid Dolar\u0131 Taht\u0131ndan \u0130ndirir Mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n <strong>rezerv paras\u0131 dolar<\/strong> hakk\u0131nda bitti, bitecek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini bolca duymu\u015f, sonunda da hi\u00e7bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u00fczd\u00fcr. Dolar rezerv para \u00f6zelli\u011fini nas\u0131l kaybeder, Korona b\u00f6yle bir sonuca yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131, bunlar\u0131 ele alaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Rezerv para da olsa temel dinamikler pek de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Bir para arkas\u0131ndaki \u00fclkenin ekonomisi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen, verimli ekonomilere sahip \u00fclkelerin paras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, aksi durumda zay\u0131flar. ABD ekonomisini bu a\u00e7\u0131dan ele alal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>ABD tarihte kal\u0131c\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme krizi ya\u015famad\u0131. <a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/2007-2008-finansal-krizi\/\">2008 k\u00fcresel krizini<\/a> dahi h\u0131zl\u0131 atlatt\u0131 ve yoluna devam etti. Bu nedenle, \u015fimdiye kadar dolar\u0131n rezerv para \u00f6zelli\u011finin tehlikeye girdi\u011fine dair hi\u00e7bir emare g\u00f6rmedik.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/kredi-genislemesi-enflasyona-yol-acar-mi\/\">Korona ABD ekonomisinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hasara yol a\u00e7abilir mi<\/a>? Evet, a\u00e7abilir. Korona krizini 2008\u2019le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131nca ABD\u2019yi nas\u0131l bir tehlikenin bekledi\u011fini daha iyi anlayabiliriz. En \u00f6nemli fark para politikas\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<p>2008 krizinde FED\u2019in olduk\u00e7a geni\u015f bir etki alan\u0131 vard\u0131. Politika faizini s\u0131f\u0131rlamak o d\u00f6nemde tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon %2 iken %0 nominal faizle reel faizi en fazla -%2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilirsiniz. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 -%2 yetmez.<\/p>\n<p>2008\u2019de uzun vadeli faizler y\u00fcksekti. Fed uzun vadeli ABD hazine tahvilleri sat\u0131n alarak, faizini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve ekonomiyi canland\u0131rd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise bu imkan \u00e7ok k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc halihaz\u0131rda on y\u0131ll\u0131k hazine tahvili faizleri %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n<p>FED elinin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in korona tehdidi yakla\u015f\u0131rken b\u00fct\u00fcn silahlar\u0131n\u0131 devreye soktu. Bunun sebebi pek anla\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m: ama\u00e7 beklenen enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fmeden reel faizi olabildi\u011fince d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilmekti. ABD\u2019de beklenen enflasyon hedefe yak\u0131n seyrediyordu. Talep darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda beklenen enflasyon da d\u00fc\u015fecekti. FED faizi s\u0131f\u0131rlamada ne kadar ge\u00e7 kal\u0131rsa reel faizi de o kadar az d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilecekti.<\/p>\n<p>Nominal faiz %0 iken beklenen enflasyon %2\u2019den %1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferse reel faiz de -%2\u2019den -%1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fer. FED bu nedenle hen\u00fcz enflasyon beklentileri d\u00fc\u015fmeden faizi s\u0131f\u0131rlad\u0131. Ama -%2\u2019nin de sert bir talep \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bundan sonra ne olacak? ABD\u2019nin kaderini maliye politikas\u0131 belirleyecek. Para politikas\u0131 likidite tuza\u011f\u0131ndayken bir ekonomi ancak geni\u015flemeci maliye politikas\u0131yla durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kabilir. ABD\u2019nin mali geni\u015flemeye gitmesi teknik anlamda \u00e7ok kolay. ABD Hazinesi s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n bir faizle rahatl\u0131kla bor\u00e7lanabilir. Ancak ABD rejiminde bor\u00e7lanma Kongrenin onay\u0131na tabi. Kongre Korona\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 2.5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir mali paketi onaylad\u0131 bile. Bu ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok do\u011fru bir ad\u0131md\u0131. Ancak yeterli olmayabilir. Korona etkisi s\u00fcrerse ikinci hatta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir mali pakete ihtiya\u00e7 do\u011fabilir. Kas\u0131m 2020\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri varken demokrat Kongre yeni mali paketler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r m\u0131? Yoksa Trump\u2019\u0131n gitmesini mi bekler? Temel soru bu.<\/p>\n<p>ABD ekonomisinin gelece\u011fini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kongre belirleyecek. Kongre se\u00e7imleri beklemeden yeni mali te\u015fvikleri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa ABD ekonomisi salg\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz etkilerini \u00e7abuk atlat\u0131r. Aksi takdirde ge\u00e7 kal\u0131nan mali te\u015fvikler dahi yetersiz kalabilir. Olumsuz senaryoda sonu\u00e7 ABD\u2019nin derin bir resesyona girmesi ve uzun y\u0131llar resesyonda kalmas\u0131 olur. B\u00fcy\u00fck resesyonlar ekonomide kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye yol a\u00e7ar. \u015eirketler batt\u0131k\u00e7a \u00fcretim kapasitesi kaybolur. Resesyon girdab\u0131 giderek i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz bir hal al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>ABD bu t\u00fcr bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme girdab\u0131na girerse dolar rezerv para taht\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015fer. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen ABD ekonomisi bir yerden sonra dolar\u0131n da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Bu zay\u0131flama \u015fimdiye kadarkilerden farkl\u0131 olacak. ABD resesyondan \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n diye para arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da dolar\u0131n de\u011ferinde d\u00fc\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bunu 2008-2013 aras\u0131nda g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Ancak bahsetti\u011fimiz b\u00f6yle bir zay\u0131flama de\u011fil. A\u011f\u0131r resesyon ortam\u0131nda para arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lamaz.<\/p>\n<p>FED\u2019in parasal geni\u015flemesi kredi geni\u015flemesine yol a\u00e7maz. Bankalar kredilerin geri d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle FED\u2019ten ald\u0131klar\u0131 fonlar\u0131 krediye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmez. Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda dolar arz\u0131 yeterince artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011feri y\u00fcksek kalacakt\u0131r. Ancak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen bir ekonomide bu durum ge\u00e7erli olmaz. ABD ekonomisi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fck\u00e7e dolar cinsinden varl\u0131klar de\u011fer kaybetmeye ba\u015flar. Bir zaman sonra yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar dolar\u0131 eskisi kadar tercih etmez olur. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 dolar talebinin azalmas\u0131na do\u011fru gider.<\/p>\n<p>Talebi azalan dolar\u0131n de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 olarak dolar\u0131 tercih edenler de zarar g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flar. Bu noktadan sonra dolar\u0131n de\u011ferindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131r. Tekrar ba\u015fa d\u00f6nelim. Dolar\u0131n rezerv para olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ne ba\u015flatt\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\u0131n rezerv para \u00f6zelli\u011fini kaybetmesi ABD ekonomisinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir darbe almas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Korona \u015foku ABD\u2019yi bu t\u00fcr bir \u015foka sokabilir. Korona etkileri uzarsa ABD Kongresinin ikinci, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc paketler ilan etmesi gerekecek.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019\u0131n Ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ilmemesi i\u00e7in bu paketler gecikirse ABD ekonomisi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir durgunluk girdab\u0131na girer. \u0130\u015fsizlik y\u00fckselir. Bor\u00e7lu hane halk\u0131 bankalara kredisini \u00f6deyemez. Bankalar sermayelerini kaybeder. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 Kongrenin iznine ba\u011fl\u0131. Bankalar kurtar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra \u00f6zel kesimin kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 da Kongreye ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Kongrenin onaylayaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e ile FED\u2019in bankalar\u0131 aradan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p do\u011frudan \u00f6zel kesim tahvillerini fonlamas\u0131 sa\u011fland\u0131. Bu ama\u00e7la 2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir izin de verildi. Korona s\u00fcreci uzad\u0131k\u00e7a bu tutar yetersiz kalabilir. ABD ekonomisinin gelece\u011fi Korona etkilerinin uzamas\u0131na ve Kongreye ba\u011fl\u0131. \u0130ktisadi anlamda ABD ekonomisini her t\u00fcrl\u00fc durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131karacak mali ara\u00e7lar var. Ancak ABD\u2019deki keskin g\u00fc\u00e7ler ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ara\u00e7lar\u0131n kullan\u0131lamamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n<p>Koronan\u0131n daralt\u0131c\u0131 etkisi uzarsa, kongrenin tak\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 tutum ABD\u2019nin ve dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fini belirleyecek. Siyasi kutupla\u015fma ortam\u0131nda Kongre yeni te\u015fvik paketlerini \u00e7\u0131karmada teredd\u00fct ederse ABD uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek resesyon girdab\u0131na girebilir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n rezerv paras\u0131 dolar hakk\u0131nda bitti, bitecek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini bolca duymu\u015f, sonunda da hi\u00e7bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u00fczd\u00fcr. Dolar rezerv para \u00f6zelli\u011fini nas\u0131l kaybeder, Korona b\u00f6yle bir sonuca yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131, bunlar\u0131 ele alaca\u011f\u0131z. Rezerv para da olsa temel dinamikler pek de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Bir para arkas\u0131ndaki \u00fclkenin ekonomisi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen, verimli ekonomilere sahip \u00fclkelerin paras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, aksi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,48,47],"tags":[188,190,208,207],"class_list":{"0":"post-4068","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-kuresel-trendler","9":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","10":"tag-abd","11":"tag-covid","12":"tag-ekonomik-kriz","13":"tag-rezerv-para"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4069,"alt_text":"Dolar rezerv para olarak kalacak m\u0131?","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1250,"height":835,"file":"2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu.jpg","filesize":438012,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-300x200.jpg","width":300,"height":200,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":16766,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-300x200.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-1024x684.jpg","width":1024,"height":684,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":144922,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-1024x684.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":7453,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-768x513.jpg","width":768,"height":513,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":85790,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-768x513.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-150x100.jpg","width":150,"height":100,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5452,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-150x100.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-450x301.jpg","width":450,"height":301,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":34021,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-450x301.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-1200x802.jpg","width":1200,"height":802,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":194186,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-1200x802.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-768x513.jpg","width":768,"height":513,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":85790,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu-768x513.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":4068,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Covid-dolarin-rezerv-para-statusu.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4068","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4068"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4068\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5438,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4068\/revisions\/5438"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4068"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4068"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4068"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}