{"id":4071,"date":"2023-03-14T16:06:47","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T13:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4071"},"modified":"2025-08-03T11:03:42","modified_gmt":"2025-08-03T08:03:42","slug":"pandemiden-cikis-ve-kredi-mekanizmasi-uzerine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/pandemiden-cikis-ve-kredi-mekanizmasi-uzerine\/","title":{"rendered":"Pandemiden \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ve Kredi Mekanizmas\u0131 \u00dczerine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pandemiden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de <a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/kredi-genislemesi-enflasyona-yol-acar-mi\/\">finans sistemini<\/a> bankalar domine etti\u011fi i\u00e7in kredi mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 bankalar \u00fczerinden a\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m. Banka kredi ile mevduat faizi aras\u0131ndaki marj\u0131 kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sermayesiz bir bankan\u0131n kredi ile mevduat faizi fark\u0131ndan kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 marj bat\u0131k kredi tutar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa banka iflas eder. \u0130\u015fte bunun olmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in bankalardan kulland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 kredilere oranlara sermaye tutmalar\u0131 istenir.<\/p>\n<p>Sermaye rasyosu bankalar\u0131n kredi \u00fcretimini k\u0131s\u0131tlar. Diyelim ki sermaye oran\u0131 %20 olsun. Bankalar\u0131n 100 TL kredi kulland\u0131rabilmesi i\u00e7in 20 TL sermaye tutmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bankalarda koyacak 10 TL sermaye varsa ancak 50 TL kredi kulland\u0131rabilir. Bir anda kredi hacmi 100\u2019den 50\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ve bu daha ilk a\u015famada ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Banka bir 50 TL daha kredi kulland\u0131racaksa 10 TL daha sermaye koyacak.<\/p>\n<p>Sermaye yoksa kredi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc de olmuyor, para arz\u0131 daral\u0131yor. Talebin \u00fcretim kapasitesini ge\u00e7ti\u011fi zamanlarda, d\u00fczenleyici otorite sermaye rasyosunu y\u00fckselterek ekonomiyi so\u011futur.<\/p>\n<p>Peki tersi olursa? Kritik k\u0131s\u0131m burada. Diyelim ki Korona krizi uzad\u0131, i\u015fletmeleri hayatta tutmak i\u00e7in daha fazla krediye ihtiya\u00e7 var. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi bu durumda sermaye rasyolar\u0131n\u0131 indirebilir. Bu yolla, ayn\u0131 tutarda sermaye ile daha fazla kredi verilir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki ya bat\u0131k kredi oran\u0131 sermaye rasyosunu ge\u00e7erse ne olacak? Krediler yeterince geni\u015fledi\u011finde \u00f6deme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7eken t\u00fcm i\u015fletmelerin kredilerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yeni kredi verilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bat\u0131klar artmaz. Teorik olarak sermaye rasyosunu 0\u2019a \u00e7ekti\u011finizde kredi arz\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcnde hi\u00e7bir engel kalmaz. Pratikte bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne g\u00fcveni sarsaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in sermaye rasyosunu \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekemezsiniz. Bunun yerine bankalara sermaye koyars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/2007-2008-finansal-krizi\/\">2008 krizinde ABD Hazinesi<\/a> t\u00fcm bankalara istisnas\u0131z sermaye koydu. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar da paylar\u0131n\u0131 karl\u0131 satt\u0131. Bankalara sermaye koymak krizden \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok iyi bir yoldur. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kamu bankalar\u0131na sermaye koyarak bu yola ba\u015fvurdu. Sermaye rasyosu %10 iken koydu\u011funuz 10 TL\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 100 TL kredi yarat\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 mali kaynaklarla 10 kat\u0131 etki sa\u011flayabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Kredi kanal\u0131n\u0131n kriz zaman\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fczenleyici otoritenin bankalar\u0131 zorlamas\u0131 \u015fartt\u0131r. Aksi takdirde, bireysel hareket etti\u011finde her banka k\u00f6t\u00fcye giden ekonomide bat\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek sermayesini koruma tela\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fer. Bu ama\u00e7la kredileri k\u0131sar. Halbuki i\u015fletmelerin ayakta kalmas\u0131 ve mallar\u0131na talebin olu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha fazla krediye ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131r. Krediler daral\u0131nca daha fazla i\u015fletme batar, i\u015fsizlik artar ve bat\u0131k oran\u0131 artar. Asl\u0131nda bankalar t\u00fcm sistemin bataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Her banka son batan olmaya oynar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hi\u00e7bir ekonomi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yok olmas\u0131na seyirci kalamaz. Sonunda ekonomi y\u00f6netimi halk\u0131n vergileri ile bankalar\u0131 kurtar\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale \u015fartt\u0131r. Alternatif senaryoda ise t\u00fcm bankalar el birli\u011fi ile kredileri geni\u015fletirse korona etkileri bitti\u011finde talep yerine gelecek, i\u015fletmeler sat\u0131\u015f yapacak ve herkes bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyecektir. Bat\u0131k oran\u0131 da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda bu \u015fartlarda karar vermek \u00e7ok kolay. Birinci senaryoda herkes kaybediyor, ikinci senaryoda herkes kazan\u0131yor. Bu durumda bankalar\u0131 ekonomi k\u00f6t\u00fcye giderken kredi geni\u015fletmeye zorlamak do\u011fru tercihtir.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer yandan sonunda halk kurtaracaksa kurtarmadan da m\u00fcdahale edebilmesi gereklidir. Maalesef d\u00fcnya hen\u00fcz bu noktaya gelmedi. Mevcut makro ihtiyati ara\u00e7lar ekonomiyi \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda so\u011futabiliyor; ancak so\u011fudu\u011funda \u0131s\u0131tam\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya hala bankalar\u0131 hayattayken \u00f6zel m\u00fclk, batt\u0131klar\u0131nda kamu mal\u0131 kabul ediyor. Tahminimizce, bu krizle birlikte d\u00fcnyada bankalar\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesine zorlayan ara\u00e7lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. BDDK bu ak\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu. Aktif rasyosu ile bankalar\u0131n kollektif halde kredileri geni\u015fletmesini hedefledi. Aktif rasyosu belki de d\u00fcnyada kredi geni\u015flemesini zorunlu hale getiren yegane ara\u00e7. \u00dclkemiz bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle korona \u015foku kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck elde etti. Yukar\u0131da tarif etti\u011fimiz mekanizmay\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma imkan\u0131na kavu\u015ftuk.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/pandemi-ve-turizm\/\">Pandemi \u015fokuna<\/a> ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kredilerle i\u015fletmelerin batmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilecek, \u00fcretim potansiyelini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek talep olu\u015fturulacak. Bu iki hedefi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2.8 trilyon TL\u2019lik kredi taban\u0131 yeterli. \u00dcstelik mekanizmadan da anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z \u00fczere 2.8 trilyon TL\u2019yi istedi\u011fimiz gibi art\u0131rma imkanlar\u0131na da sahibiz. Bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sermaye rasyolar\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Kredi yaratma s\u00fcrecinde \u015fu an i\u00e7in bir zorluk yok. Korona kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ekonomideki en etkili ila\u00e7 kredidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede dikkat edilmesi gereken bir di\u011fer nokta da kaynak tahsisinin kalitesidir. Kredi geni\u015flemesiyle sa\u011flanan ge\u00e7ici likidite rahatlamas\u0131n\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6rde \u00fcretken yat\u0131r\u0131mlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi elzemdir. Aksi halde, k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n t\u00fcketim veya verimsiz alanlara y\u00f6nelmesi hem kaynak israf\u0131na hem de ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi sorunlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu ba\u011flamda bankalar\u0131n kredi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sekt\u00f6rel \u00f6nceliklere g\u00f6re \u015fekillendirilmesi ve kaynaklar\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemdeki sekt\u00f6rlere y\u00f6nlendirilmesi gerekir. Ayr\u0131ca kredi geni\u015flemesinin beraberinde getirece\u011fi potansiyel enflasyonist bask\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 otoritesinin koordineli hareket etmesi, finansal istikrar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. Kredi mekanizmas\u0131 do\u011fru \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sadece kriz etkilerini hafifletmekle kalmaz, ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonomik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn de ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olabilir. Burada temel olan, ge\u00e7ici \u00f6nlemlerin uzun vadeli faydaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini sa\u011flayacak kurumsal kapasite ve kararl\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bankac\u0131l\u0131k altyap\u0131s\u0131 ve proaktif d\u00fczenleyici yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, bu ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinde \u00f6nemli bir avantaj sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pandemiden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de finans sistemini bankalar domine etti\u011fi i\u00e7in kredi mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 bankalar \u00fczerinden a\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m. Banka kredi ile mevduat faizi aras\u0131ndaki marj\u0131 kazan\u0131r. Sermayesiz bir bankan\u0131n kredi ile mevduat faizi fark\u0131ndan kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 marj bat\u0131k kredi tutar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa banka iflas eder. \u0130\u015fte bunun olmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in bankalardan kulland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 kredilere oranlara sermaye tutmalar\u0131 istenir. Sermaye rasyosu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,49,48,47],"tags":[210,190,208,209],"class_list":{"0":"post-4071","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-jeopolitik-risk-analizi","9":"category-kuresel-trendler","10":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","11":"tag-bddk","12":"tag-covid","13":"tag-ekonomik-kriz","14":"tag-kredi-sistemi"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4072,"alt_text":"BDDK, Kredi ve Bankac\u0131l\u0131k","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":854,"height":572,"file":"2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi.jpg","filesize":336457,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-300x201.jpg","width":300,"height":201,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":20330,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-300x201.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8419,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-768x514.jpg","width":768,"height":514,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":131187,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-768x514.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-150x100.jpg","width":150,"height":100,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5980,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-150x100.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-450x301.jpg","width":450,"height":301,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":44417,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-450x301.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-768x514.jpg","width":768,"height":514,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":131187,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi-768x514.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":4071,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Kredi-ve-Bankacilik-Sistemi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4071"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4071\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5436,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4071\/revisions\/5436"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}