{"id":4090,"date":"2023-03-15T16:29:16","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T13:29:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4090"},"modified":"2025-08-01T17:51:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T14:51:12","slug":"turkiye-2019-daralmasindan-nasil-kurtuldu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/turkiye-2019-daralmasindan-nasil-kurtuldu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye 2019 Daralmas\u0131ndan Nas\u0131l Kurtuldu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye 2019 daralmas\u0131<\/strong> nas\u0131l atlat\u0131ld\u0131? T\u00fcrkiye cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l finanse edecek \u015feklindeki sorular\u0131 s\u0131k\u00e7a duyar\u0131z. Bu t\u00fcr bir soru bizatihi yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Finanse edilmeyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k yoktur. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z<\/a> varsa finanse etmi\u015fsinizdir, finanse edemeyecekseniz cari fazlan\u0131z olu\u015fur. Bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi T\u00fcrkiye 2019\u2019da tecr\u00fcbe etti. T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan nette bor\u00e7lanmad\u0131, aksine borcunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6dedi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kaynak bulamad\u0131. Buradan bir \u00fclkenin kaynak bulamay\u0131nca cari a\u00e7\u0131k veremedi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda paran\u0131n bolla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde artar. Yani cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 veya azalmas\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla inisiyatifimizde de\u011fildir. \u00dclkeye yabanc\u0131 kaynak gelece\u011fi varsa cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z artar, yoksa azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kabaca \u015f\u00f6yle de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bor\u00e7 bulabiliyorsak artar, bulam\u0131yorsak azal\u0131r. Covid d\u00f6neminde de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekonomiye etkilerine de\u011finelim. Covid etkisiyle sermaye geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere ka\u00e7t\u0131. Ancak T\u00fcrkiye bu konuda \u015fansl\u0131yd\u0131. Covid geldi diye T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00e7ok fazla sermaye ka\u00e7mad\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yoktu. 2018, 2019\u2019da yabanc\u0131lar ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2019\u2019da ekonomi cari fazla vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu ortamda pandemi etkisiyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olmad\u0131, kur di\u011fer \u00fclkeler kadar artt\u0131. Banka ve i\u015fletmeler terste yakalanmad\u0131. TCMB k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 rezerviyle kurdaki dalgalanmalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebildi. Makro dengeler beklendi\u011fi gibi sars\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinden \u00e7ok daha \u015fansl\u0131. 2008 \u00f6ncesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yo\u011fun yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fi olmu\u015f, cari a\u00e7\u0131k hayli y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. 2008 \u015fokuyla beraber sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ekonomiyi daha fazla zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ek olarak ekonomi y\u00f6netimi \u00f6nceki tecr\u00fcbelerinden bu krize daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131.<\/p>\n

Pandemi \u015foku 2018 A\u011fustos sonras\u0131 \u015foka \u00e7ok benziyor. 2018 A\u011fustos sonras\u0131nda i\u015fletmelerimiz batma riski ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015f, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar artm\u0131\u015f, talep d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eimdi de ayn\u0131 risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.<\/p>\n

2019\u2019da kredi politikas\u0131yla i\u015fletmelerin batmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ildi, daralan talep canland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ve durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. 2018 A\u011fustos sonras\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar genel olarak IMF\u2019yi adres g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130lgin\u00e7 olan \u015fu ki T\u00fcrkiye 2019\u2019daki daralmadan IMF<\/a>\u2019siz \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Burada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u00e7 politika enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 ve merkezi kaynak yaratma potansiyeli hafife al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer taraftan i\u00e7 politika enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 ile olu\u015fturulan kaynaklar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131nda herhangi bir s\u0131n\u0131rlama bulunmuyor. IMF\u2019ten yap\u0131lacak bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n politika \u00fczerinde \u00f6nko\u015fullar\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenir ve kaynaklar istenen iktisadi politika ama\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak kullan\u0131lamayabilir. \u0130\u00e7 politikaya dayal\u0131 kaynak yarat\u0131m\u0131nda ya da transferinde b\u00f6yle bir k\u0131s\u0131tlama yoktur.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00f6nemin en ay\u0131rt edici \u00f6zelliklerinden biri, T\u00fcrkiye’nin kamu maliyesi disiplininin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde korunmu\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Maliye politikalar\u0131 nispeten esnek tutulmu\u015f, kamu bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uygulanan kredi geni\u015flemesiyle reel sekt\u00f6re likidite aktar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak k\u0131sa vadeli destek mekanizmalar\u0131 devreye sokulmu\u015ftur. Reel sekt\u00f6re verilen bu destekler, istihdam\u0131n korunmas\u0131nda ve \u00fcretim zincirinin kopmamas\u0131nda belirleyici oldu. Bu esnek m\u00fcdahaleler sayesinde daralma d\u00f6nemi ge\u00e7ici hale getirilebildi.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7luluk oran\u0131n\u0131n nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6nceki krizlerden ders alarak d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2019’da g\u00f6zlenen ekonomik toparlanma, asl\u0131nda 2018’deki kur \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan yap\u0131sal uyum s\u00fcrecinin tamamlay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 sadele\u015fmi\u015f, bir\u00e7ok firma d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonunu kapatm\u0131\u015f veya hedge mekanizmalar\u0131 geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Bu da pandemiye girerken T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde parasal geni\u015flemeye dayal\u0131 i\u00e7 talep canland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken, d\u0131\u015f dengede pozitif etkiler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00d6zellikle turizm gelirlerinin toparlanmas\u0131 ve ithalat talebinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131yla cari denge ge\u00e7ici olarak fazla vermeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f finansmana olan ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015f, \u00fclkeyi d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 daha diren\u00e7li k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Cari fazla veren bir ekonominin kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde ayakta kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek olur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2019\u2019daki bu tecr\u00fcbesi, ileride benzer \u015foklar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hangi politika setlerinin daha etkili olabilece\u011fi konusunda da yol g\u00f6sterici olabilir. Krediye dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli, her ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lsa da, kriz anlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir canland\u0131rma arac\u0131 olarak yeniden de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu noktada \u00f6nemli olan, kredi geni\u015flemesinin verimlili\u011fi ve hangi sekt\u00f6rleri destekledi\u011fidir. 2019\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi, ihracata d\u00f6n\u00fck, istihdam yaratan alanlara y\u00f6nelen kredi tahsisi, sadece b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015f denge ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumlu sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 2019 daralmas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, sadece bir para veya maliye politikas\u0131 zaferi de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin davran\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle de ilgilidir. Gerek hanehalk\u0131, gerek \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r, gerekse kamunun bu d\u00f6nemde edindi\u011fi refleksler, T\u00fcrkiye’nin makroekonomik diren\u00e7 kapasitesini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. E\u011fer bu refleksler uzun vadeli yap\u0131sal reformlarla desteklenirse, d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 daha sa\u011flam bir ekonomi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye 2019 daralmas\u0131 nas\u0131l atlat\u0131ld\u0131? T\u00fcrkiye cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l finanse edecek \u015feklindeki sorular\u0131 s\u0131k\u00e7a duyar\u0131z. Bu t\u00fcr bir soru bizatihi yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Finanse edilmeyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k yoktur. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z varsa finanse etmi\u015fsinizdir, finanse edemeyecekseniz cari fazlan\u0131z olu\u015fur. Bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi T\u00fcrkiye 2019\u2019da tecr\u00fcbe etti. T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan nette bor\u00e7lanmad\u0131, aksine borcunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6dedi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kaynak bulamad\u0131. Buradan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[216,190,208,215],"class_list":{"0":"post-4090","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-cari-denge","10":"tag-covid","11":"tag-ekonomik-kriz","12":"tag-imf"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4091,"alt_text":"T\u00fcrkiye cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1294,"height":863,"file":"2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi.jpg","filesize":424507,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-300x200.jpg","width":300,"height":200,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":13517,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-300x200.jpg"},"large":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-1024x683.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":128035,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-1024x683.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":6330,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-768x512.jpg","width":768,"height":512,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":73964,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-768x512.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-150x100.jpg","width":150,"height":100,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":4606,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-150x100.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-450x300.jpg","width":450,"height":300,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":27813,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-450x300.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-1200x800.jpg","width":1200,"height":800,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":170988,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-1200x800.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-768x512.jpg","width":768,"height":512,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":73964,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi-768x512.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":4090,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2019-Daralmasi-ve-Turkiyenin-Cari-Dengesi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4090"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4090\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5433,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4090\/revisions\/5433"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4091"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}