{"id":4242,"date":"2023-04-01T05:47:26","date_gmt":"2023-04-01T02:47:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4242"},"modified":"2025-07-28T00:22:49","modified_gmt":"2025-07-27T21:22:49","slug":"rezerv-para-tartismalari-uzerine-renminbi-dolarin-yerini-alabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/rezerv-para-tartismalari-uzerine-renminbi-dolarin-yerini-alabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Rezerv Para Tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00dczerine : Renminbi Dolar\u0131n Yerini Alabilir Mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Rezerv para tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131<\/strong> BRICS \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin alternatif \u00f6deme sistemleri ve i\u015fbirliklerine odaklanmas\u0131yla yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi peki Rezerv para nedir? Rezerv para \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerinde tuttu\u011fu parad\u0131r. \u00dclkeler, ihtiya\u00e7 duyacaklar\u0131 bir para birimini bulamama ihtimaline binaen, bu paradan rezerv tutarlar. Su kesilme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k suyun binalar\u0131n depolar\u0131nda biriktirilmesi gibi bir uygulamadan bahsediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclkeler yabanc\u0131 bir para birimine temelde iki sebepten ihtiya\u00e7 duyarlar.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>1) O para biriminden ithalatlar\u0131 ihracatlar\u0131ndan fazlad\u0131r.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>2) O para biriminden bor\u00e7lu olabilirler.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Su kesilmesi gibi, yabanc\u0131 paran\u0131n \u00fclkeye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da kesilmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, varken merkez bankalar\u0131nda ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 paralardan depolarlar. Rezerv para i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 zamanda bireylerin ya da kurumlar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m saikiyle tuttu\u011fu para anlam\u0131 da \u00e7\u0131kar ancak bunu mikro d\u00fczeye indirgersek konu i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz hale gelir ve neticede bahsedilen bu talepleri yine Merkez Bankalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak zorundad\u0131r. O y\u00fczden analiz yukar\u0131daki tan\u0131ma k\u0131s\u0131tlanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada temel rezerv para ikinci d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131d\u0131r. ABD dolar\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerindeki ticarette ge\u00e7er ve d\u00fcnyada kendi \u00fclkesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lan\u0131lan para birimidir. ABD dolar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da, ticarette ge\u00e7en ve bor\u00e7lan\u0131lan para birimleri olmakla beraber, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 di\u011ferlerinden ay\u0131ran bir \u00f6zellik daha var: Sadece ABD dolar\u0131 onu \u00e7\u0131karan \u00fclkenin taraf\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticarette kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in RMB\u2019yi kendi ticaretinde kullan\u0131r ancak \u00c7in\u2019in taraf\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticarette RMB kullan\u0131lmaz. Avrupa euroyu kendi ticaretinde kullan\u0131r ama Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n taraf\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticarette euro kullan\u0131lmaz. Dolar\u0131 ise sadece ABD ile ihracat ve ithalat\u0131m\u0131zda de\u011fil, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeyle ticaretimizde de kullan\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticarette sadece dolar\u0131n kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sekt\u00f6r var ki rezerv para dedi\u011fimizde akla bu sekt\u00f6r gelir. Petrol ihracat ve ithalat\u0131nda sadece dolar kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Bunun arkas\u0131nda sadece iktisadi sebepler aramak yetersiz kal\u0131r. B\u0130r \u00fclkenin taraf\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticarette paras\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 o \u00fclkenin askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcne de ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bunu ayr\u0131ca ele alaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Rezerv para nas\u0131l olunur?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para olma hikayesini takip etti\u011fimizde, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta y\u00fcksek cari fazla g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda sava\u015fan \u00fclkelere satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 mallar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n kazand\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde, uluslararas\u0131 ticarette alt\u0131n kullan\u0131l\u0131yor, alt\u0131n\u0131n temel uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme arac\u0131 oldu\u011fu bu d\u00f6neme de alt\u0131n standard\u0131 d\u00f6nemi deniyordu. Sava\u015f bitti\u011finde, ABD d\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm alt\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019inin sahibi olmu\u015ftu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde ABD \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini alabilecek alt\u0131n \u00e7ok azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sava\u015f sonras\u0131nda \u00fclkeler Bretton Woods\u2019ta bir araya geldiler ve bir kazan-kazan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc geli\u015ftirdiler. Buna g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na sabitlendi ve alt\u0131n yerine ABD dolar\u0131 ticarette kullan\u0131l\u0131r oldu. Sabitleme prati\u011fi 1970\u2019lerde sona erdikten sonra da ABD dolar\u0131 ticaretin ana para birimi olmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n<p>Bretton Woods Anla\u015fmas\u0131 olmasa da 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir durum ya\u015fanmazd\u0131. Ya d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 ABD\u2019den ithalat yapmay\u0131 b\u0131rakacakt\u0131, ya da ABD onlar\u0131 bor\u00e7land\u0131rarak mal satmaya devam edecekti. Borcun para birimi alt\u0131n veya ABD dolar\u0131 olabilirdi. Buna da mal\u0131 satan ABD karar verecekti.<\/p>\n<p>ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para olma hikayesi bize rezerv para olman\u0131n yollar\u0131ndan birini de tarif ediyor. Cari fazla vereceksiniz, cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkelere mal\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 onlar\u0131 kendi para biriminizden bor\u00e7land\u0131rarak satacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Yaln\u0131z bunu yaparken 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sava\u015f olmazsa, bir \u00a0sorun ortaya\u00a0 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: <strong><em>Cari fazlan\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi<\/em><\/strong>. D\u00f6viz kuru serbest iken, cari fazla veren bir ekonomide \u00fclkeye giren d\u00f6vizin bolla\u015fmas\u0131, yerli paray\u0131 de\u011ferlendirir ve cari fazla erimeye ba\u015flar. 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda ABD dolar\u0131 de\u011ferlense dahi, sava\u015fan \u00fclkeler ABD\u2019ye\u00a0 kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131klar vermeye devam ettiler. Sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 kurun ABD cari fazlas\u0131n\u0131 dengelemesine izin vermedi. Sava\u015f\u0131n\u00a0 y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD\u2019yi yegane mal \u00fcretim merkezi haline getirdi. Sava\u015f\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda, yerli paran\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesi halinde cari dengeye gidilmesi nas\u0131l engellenebilir?<\/p>\n<p>2 farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ntem uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Birincisi b\u00f6lgesel para birli\u011fi. Almanya tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir para birimine sahip olsa o para\u00a0 birimi \u00e7ok daha fazla de\u011ferlenir ve Alman cari fazlas\u0131n\u0131 eritebilirdi. Ama euro onun\u00a0 sahibi t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin ortalama verimlili\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n verimlili\u011fi euro alan\u0131 verimlili\u011finin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in euronun de\u011feri Almanya\u2019ya g\u00f6re daima d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta, Almanya cari fazla vermeye devam ediyor. Ayn\u0131 mekanizma, Almanya gibi y\u00fcksek verimli Finlandiya i\u00e7in i\u015fleyemiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Finlandiya\u2019da \u00fccretler verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. Almanya \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutarak da rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci bir y\u00f6ntem ise kuru do\u011frudan kontrol etmek. Bunu yapan da \u00c7in. \u00c7in, RMB\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyerek, cari fazlas\u0131n\u0131 muhafaza ediyor. Tabi bu stratejinin bir gere\u011fi olarak i\u00e7 talebi de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak zorunda. \u0130\u00e7 talep y\u00fckselirse ithalat artar ve \u00c7in cari fazla veremez olur. \u00c7in Devleti cari fazla verme \u00f6nceli\u011finden vazge\u00e7ecekmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bunun da arkas\u0131nda RMB\u2019yi rezerv para yapma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi yat\u0131yor olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ndeki emarelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in RMB\u2019yi d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde kulland\u0131rmas\u0131 yat\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi.<\/p>\n<p>RMB dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131 serbest olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131yla swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131 yap\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye de \u00c7in ile 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir swap anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ithalat\u00e7\u0131 RMB bor\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 zaman TCMB RMB\u2019yi \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131ndan temin ederek T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki ithalat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n hesab\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00c7inli ihracat\u00e7\u0131ya RMB cinsinden \u00f6deme yap\u0131yor. Kredi vadesi geldi\u011finde, T\u00fcrk ithalat\u00e7\u0131 TCMB\u2019ye TCMB \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131na borcunu \u00f6d\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in y\u00fcksek cari fazlalar verdi\u011fi s\u00fcrece cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan \u00fclkeleri kendi paras\u0131 cinsinden bor\u00e7land\u0131rmaya devam eder. Her sene bu bor\u00e7lar b\u00fcy\u00fcr. Sonra bu \u00fclkeler, RMB muslu\u011funun \u00a0kesilmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k RMB cinsi rezerv biriktirmeye ba\u015flar. \u00c7in\u2019in hesab\u0131 bu. Bu hesap \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flayal\u0131 20 y\u0131l oldu. \u00c7in \u00f6nce b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00fclkelerden ba\u015flad\u0131. B\u00f6lgesinde RMB ticaretini yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131na en son Brezilya eklendi. Art\u0131k RMB \u00c7in\u2019in hemen\u00a0 t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerle olan ticaretinde kullan\u0131labilecek bir para birimi.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>ABD dolar\u0131 rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc kaybedebilir mi?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Rezerv para iddian\u0131z olabilmesi i\u00e7in cari dengesizlik olmal\u0131. Cari dengede ticaret i\u00e7in\u00a0 yine bir paraya\u00a0 ihtiya\u00e7 olacak ama ticaret neticesinde ortaya bor\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmayacak. Denge halindeki ticarette, taraflar\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para birimine ihtiyac\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Ortada bor\u00e7 olmay\u0131nca rezerv biriktirmek i\u00e7in sebep de olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>Cari dengesizlik b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde rezerv paraya alan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dclkenin d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc nispetinde de paras\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para potansiyeli artar. Alman mark\u0131na, Frans\u0131z frank\u0131na g\u00f6re Euronun rezerv para potansiyeli daha y\u00fcksektir. \u00c7in ise kendi ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ekonomi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bir para birli\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7 duymadan paras\u0131n\u0131 rezerv para yapabilecek bir konumda.<\/p>\n<p>ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerin rezerv para olmalar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir soru i\u015fareti var. Son 40 y\u0131lda, rezerv paraya bir i\u015flev daha\u00a0 y\u00fcklendi. ABD cari a\u00e7\u0131k vererek, cari fazla veren \u00fclkelerin varl\u0131k talebini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunu ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden bor\u00e7 ihra\u00e7 ederek yap\u0131yor. Cari fazla veren \u00fclkelerin bu misyonu cari fazla vermeye devam ederek yerine getiremeyece\u011fini iddia eden bir kesim var. Bu kesime kat\u0131lm\u0131yoruz. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, rezerv para hikayesinin ba\u015f\u0131nda, ABD de cari fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 cinsi bor\u00e7 vererek veriyordu. Biraz abs\u00fcrd gelse de bu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bug\u00fcn \u00c7in de bunu yap\u0131yor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkeleri RMB cinsi bor\u00e7land\u0131rarak cari fazlas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in uluslararas\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7inde ABD dolar\u0131 cinsi olanlar azal\u0131rken, RMB cinsi olanlar art\u0131yor.\u00a0 B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar bir anda olmuyor. 20 y\u0131ld\u0131r bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek devam ediyor. Ama hala \u00e7ok ba\u015flarda. RMB dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n serbest olmamas\u0131, RMB cinsi ticaret ve bor\u00e7 ili\u015fkilerini \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirerek s\u00fcreci yava\u015flat\u0131yor. Ama akl\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00e7\u0131karmayal\u0131m, RMB dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n serbest oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fczen de cari fazla vermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u00c7in rezerv para iddias\u0131n\u0131 kaybeder. Yani s\u00fcre\u00e7 b\u00f6yle a\u011f\u0131r aksak i\u015flemek zorunda.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Peki RMB&#8217;nin rezerv para olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia edenlerin cari denge \u00fczerinden arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 neler?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Bu konuda s\u0131k s\u0131k yazan\u00a0 M.Pettis isimli ekonomistin Twitter hesab\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini ele alal\u0131m. Pettis 14 Nisan 2021 tarihinde Michael Hasenstab&#8217;\u0131n ft.com&#8217;da yay\u0131nlanan makalesini al\u0131nt\u0131layarak konuyu \u015fu \u015fekilde ele alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Bu \u00e7ok uzun konu i\u00e7in \u015fimdiden \u00f6z\u00fcr dilerim, ancak d\u00fczenli okuyucular\u0131n bildi\u011fi gibi, rezerv para birimlerinin rol\u00fcne ili\u015fkin yayg\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lmalar beni \u00e7ok endi\u015felendiriyor. Burada yazar, bir para birimini bask\u0131n bir rezerv para birimi yapan \u015feyin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeli ticaret maliyetleri<\/em><a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>oldu\u011funa ve bu nedenle, \u00c7in&#8217;in liderli\u011finde dijital para birimlerinin uluslararas\u0131 ticarete hakim olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor. Ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeli ticaret maliyeti gerekli bir ko\u015ful olsa da yeterli de\u011fildir.\u00a0 Bunun r\u00f6l\u00fcne \u015f\u00f6yle k\u0131saca g\u00f6z atal\u0131m;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>ABD Dolar\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n hakim duruma geldi\u011fi son 100 y\u0131l bunu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor: d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re tasarruf s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, o d\u00f6nemin ilk elli y\u0131l\u0131nda (k\u00fcresel ihtiyac\u0131n karakterize etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemdi ve 2 d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ekonomik olarak yeniden in\u015fa edildi) ABD, d\u00fcnyaya kal\u0131c\u0131 bir net tasarruf sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131yd\u0131.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Bununla birlikte, sonraki 50 y\u0131lda, k\u00fcresel ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yeniden in\u015fa edildi\u011finde ve fazla tasarruflar\u0131 ihra\u00e7 etmesi gerekti\u011finde, ABD otomatik olarak yabanc\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir net so\u011furucusu haline geldi. Elbette bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda ABD, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kendisine g\u0131da, sermaye mallar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 tedarik etmesi i\u00e7in ABD&#8217;ye ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funda kal\u0131c\u0131 ticaret fazlalar\u0131ndan, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n acilen fazla t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcretimini bo\u015faltabilece\u011fi bir yer d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 verdi.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Bununla birlikte, sonraki 50 y\u0131lda, k\u00fcresel ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yeniden in\u015fa edildi\u011finde ve fazla tasarruflar\u0131 ihra\u00e7 etmesi gerekti\u011finde, ABD otomatik olarak yabanc\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir net so\u011furucusu haline geldi. Elbette bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda ABD, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kendisine g\u0131da, sermaye mallar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 tedarik etmesi i\u00e7in ABD&#8217;ye ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funda kal\u0131c\u0131 ticaret fazlalar\u0131ndan, d\u00fcnya acilen fazla t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcretimini bo\u015faltabilece\u011fi bir yere gitti\u011finde kal\u0131c\u0131 ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Bu sadece bir tesad\u00fcf de\u011fildi. Bana g\u00f6re \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fey \u00f6neriyor. \u0130lk olarak, bu rezerv para birimi durumu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ticaretten \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131n bir i\u015flevidir. Asl\u0131nda, maliyetin zaten \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ve zaten kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, art\u0131k bunun pek bir \u00f6nemi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcpheleniyorum.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00c7ok daha \u00f6nemli g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u015fey, <strong>rezerv para birimi \u00fclkesinin kendi ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na de\u011fil, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131n\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na yan\u0131t olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck dengesizlikler y\u00fcr\u00fctmeye istekli olmal\u0131d\u0131r<\/strong>. M\u00fckemmel bir \u015fekilde CFR kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, ABD tipik olarak k\u00fcresel dengesizliklerin %40-50&#8217;sini emer ve ABD gibi t\u00fcm\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 rezerv para birimleri olarak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan benzer anglofon ekonomileri ABD ile birlikte k\u00fcresel dengesizliklerin toplamda %65 &#8211; %70&#8217;ini y\u00f6netir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00c7in&#8217;in para biriminin (ve Japonya gibi fazla veren di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin para biriminin) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, herhangi birinin bir para biriminin uluslararas\u0131 stat\u00fcs\u00fc ile k\u00fcresel dengesizlikleri \u00f6z\u00fcmseme iste\u011fi ve yetene\u011fi aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir ili\u015fki olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. .<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0130kinci olarak, bu \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck rezerv para birimi stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc kabul etmeye &#8220;istekli&#8221; olmalar\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, mali sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yerel karar verme \u00fczerindeki orant\u0131s\u0131z g\u00fcc\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilen ve bu g\u00fcc\u00fc peki\u015ftiren ekonomik rasyonaliteden \u00e7ok ideolojiyle ilgilidir. 1920&#8217;lerdeki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k gibi, mali taraf\u0131n ezici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ekonomilerinin \u00fcretici taraf\u0131n\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 feda etmeye belki de \u00e7ok istekliler. Sonu\u00e7, Matthew Klein ve benim kitab\u0131m\u0131zda g\u00f6sterdi\u011fimiz gibi, bu rezerv para birimi \u00fclkeleri s\u00fcrekli olarak i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131na izin vermekle borcun artmas\u0131na izin vermek aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda kal\u0131yor. \u00c7o\u011funlukla ise ikincisini se\u00e7mi\u015flerdir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in yakla\u015f\u0131k yirmi y\u0131ld\u0131r para biriminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bask\u0131n rezerv stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vaat ederken, asl\u0131nda RMB, \u00c7in&#8217;in ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi ve en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi stat\u00fcs\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk on para birimi aras\u0131nda muhtemelen en az \u00f6nemli olan\u0131d\u0131r. d\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcccar ve ilgili standartlara g\u00f6re rol\u00fc son on y\u0131lda neredeyse hi\u00e7 iyile\u015fmedi ve hatta d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olabilir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Neden? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir uluslararas\u0131 stat\u00fc elde etme konusundaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 heyecanl\u0131 konu\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen Pekin, k\u00fcresel dengesizlikleri gidermedeki rol\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in gereken ekonomik ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmay\u0131 her zaman reddetmi\u015ftir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Aksine, <a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/covid-dolari-tahtindan-indirir-mi\/\">Covid-19 zaten a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tasarruf ve yetersiz talepten muzdarip bir d\u00fcnyada<\/a> bir talep \u015foku yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Pekin&#8217;in elinde net i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131rarak RMB&#8217;nin rol\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in inan\u0131lmaz bir f\u0131rsat vard\u0131. Bunun yerine, k\u00fcresel talep dengesizliklerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131y\u0131 fiilen k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftiren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki uygulad\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Sonunda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn eninde sonunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesini bekliyorum, ancak yen&#8217;in (1980&#8217;lerde ve 1990&#8217;larda bize s\u00f6ylendi\u011fine g\u00f6re neredeyse kesindi) ya da RMB&#8217;nin y\u00fckseli\u015fi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden de\u011fil. Ya d\u00fc\u015fecek \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD, azalan jeopolitik faydalar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hakim rezerv para birimi stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcretim sekt\u00f6rlerine ve bilan\u00e7osuna y\u00f6nelik devasa ve artan ekonomik maliyetini art\u0131k emmeye ve stat\u00fc ve hakimiyeti korumaya istekli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar veriyor. (ayn\u0131 \u015fey olabilir) veya dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruman\u0131n maliyeti, her zaman Amerikan g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek kayna\u011f\u0131 olan ABD ekonomisini yeterince baltalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funda d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k&#8217;\u0131n 1920&#8217;lerdeki deneyimi, bunun nas\u0131l olabilece\u011fine dair h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir vizyon sa\u011fl\u0131yor. <a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[2]<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Buradaki en kritik mesele cari dengeye ili\u015fkin verdi\u011fimiz \u00f6rne\u011fin teyit edilmesi. M.pettis bir rezerv para biriminin k\u00fcresel bir iddia oldu\u011funu ve kendi \u00fclkesinden ziyade k\u00fcresel dengesizlikleri y\u00f6netmeye istekli olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini iddia ediyor. Bu iddia k\u0131smen do\u011fru ABD yerel \u00fcreticileri ya da imalat sanayi y\u00fcksek i\u015f\u00e7ilik ya da di\u011fer i\u015fletme \u00e7evresi maliyetleriyle bo\u011fu\u015fmak zorunda kalsa da ABD rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc korumaya istekli. \u0130\u015fte bu k\u00fcresel bir iddia peki ABD bu i\u015ften zarar m\u0131 ediyor? Pek \u00f6yle denemez. Rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fc ve bu para \u00fczerinde politika yapma g\u00fcc\u00fc hala Washington&#8217;da. <strong>&#8220;<\/strong><b>the dollar is our currency, but it is your problem\u201d<\/b> <em><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[3]<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Rezerv paran\u0131n varl\u0131k talebini kar\u015f\u0131lama misyonu var m\u0131?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>ABD cari hesab\u0131 1980 sonras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fcnce rezerv paraya yeni bir i\u015flev y\u00fcklenmi\u015f gibi oldu. ABD, bor\u00e7 \u00fcreterek d\u00fcnyan\u0131n varl\u0131k talebini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 2007\u2019ye kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek devam etti.<a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/2007-2008-finansal-krizi\/\"> 2007\u2019de k\u00fcresel kriz<\/a> patlak verdikten sonra bir daha ABD eskisi gibi bor\u00e7 \u00fcretemez ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k veremez oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Bor\u00e7 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi biraz a\u00e7makta fayda var. Bir \u00fclke, cari a\u00e7\u0131k verebilmesi i\u00e7in ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetler kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bor\u00e7lan\u0131r. \u00dclkenin bor\u00e7 \u00fcretimi i\u00e7 piyasan\u0131n talebine yetmiyorsa, cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermesi zorla\u015f\u0131r. \u0130\u00e7 talep ve d\u0131\u015f talep \u00fcretilen k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 borcu sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in yar\u0131\u015facak ve borcun getirisi de bu arada d\u00fc\u015fecektir. 2007 sonras\u0131nda tam da b\u00f6yle oldu. Pandemiye kadar, sadece k\u0131sa vadeli de\u011fil uzun vadeli faizler de s\u0131f\u0131ra yap\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hatta, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada tahvil faizlerinde eksi seviyeler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, ABD cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019sine oran\u0131 1989-2007 aras\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. 2007\u2019den pandemiye kadar cari a\u00e7\u0131k %2 seviyeleri fazla ge\u00e7emedi. (GDP\u2019ye oran\u0131)<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4259\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4259\" style=\"width: 413px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4259 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Cari-Aciginin-GSYIHya-Orani.jpg\" alt=\"ABD Cari A\u00e7\u0131k GSY\u0130H Oran\u0131\" width=\"413\" height=\"250\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Cari-Aciginin-GSYIHya-Orani.jpg 413w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Cari-Aciginin-GSYIHya-Orani-300x182.jpg 300w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Cari-Aciginin-GSYIHya-Orani-150x91.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 413px) 100vw, 413px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4259\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">ABD Cari A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSY\u0130H Oran\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Varl\u0131k talebi devam etti\u011fine g\u00f6re, ABD cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ABD&#8217;lilerin bor\u00e7 \u00fcretememesi. 2007 sonras\u0131nda, hane halk\u0131 kredilerine k\u0131s\u0131tlar geldi. ABD hane halk\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu eskisi gibi artmaz oldu. Grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, 2008\u2019den g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar, hane halk\u0131 borcunun has\u0131laya oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bilin\u00e7li bir politikan\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc. 2008 krizinin mortgage kaynakl\u0131 olmas\u0131, otoriteleri hane halk\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya zorlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4260\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4260\" style=\"width: 602px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4260 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Hane-Halki-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani.jpg\" alt=\"ABD Hane Halk\u0131 Borcu GSY\u0130H Oran\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131\" width=\"602\" height=\"238\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Hane-Halki-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani.jpg 602w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Hane-Halki-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani-300x119.jpg 300w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Hane-Halki-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani-150x59.jpg 150w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Hane-Halki-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani-450x178.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4260\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABD hane halk\u0131 borcunun GSYH\u2019sine oran\u0131<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Hane halk\u0131 borcunun has\u0131laya oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, kamu borcunun has\u0131laya oran\u0131 da yatay seyredince t\u00fcm y\u00fck \u015firketlere bindi. \u015eirketlerin \u00fcretti\u011fi bor\u00e7 da has\u0131lan\u0131n %2&#8217;si kadar bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k fonlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, en iyi bor\u00e7 \u00fcretim performans\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u015firketler kesimi borcunun has\u0131laya oran\u0131 bile 2008 seviyesini g\u00f6rememi\u015f. Bu oran 2008&#8217;de 2003&#8217;teki zirveyi tekrar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yine kriz \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Bu defaki kriz tekrar ayn\u0131 seviyeyi g\u00f6rmeden bile \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4261\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4261\" style=\"width: 602px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4261\" src=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-sirket-borcunun-GSYHsina-Orani.jpg\" alt=\"ABD&#039;de \u015firketlerin borcunun GSYH&#039;ya Oran\u0131\" width=\"602\" height=\"400\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-sirket-borcunun-GSYHsina-Orani.jpg 602w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-sirket-borcunun-GSYHsina-Orani-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-sirket-borcunun-GSYHsina-Orani-150x100.jpg 150w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-sirket-borcunun-GSYHsina-Orani-450x299.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4261\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">ABD \u015firket borcunun GSYH\u2019s\u0131na Oran\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Covid d\u00f6neminde, kamu borcunun has\u0131laya art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile birlikte cari a\u00e7\u0131k %4&#8217;e kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ysa da, bu durum kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Kamu borcu tekrar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde. ABD&#8217;lilerin borcu g\u0131rtla\u011f\u0131na dayanm\u0131\u015fken eskisi gibi ABD d\u00fcnyan\u0131n varl\u0131k talebini kar\u015f\u0131layamaz. ABD varl\u0131k talebini kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yorsa kim kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor? Kimse. O y\u00fczden, 2008 sonras\u0131nda faizler t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nsad\u0131. Ta ki pandemiye kadar. Pandemi neoliberal politikalarda bir gedik a\u00e7t\u0131, kamu borcu y\u0131llar sonra has\u0131laya oranla artt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 verildi. Pandemi ile birlikte bu d\u00f6nem de son buldu. S\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, ABD\u2019de kamu borcunun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir kriz gerekiyor. 2008 krizinde bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olmu\u015f. Ondan sonra pandemiye kadar yatay seyretmi\u015f. Pandemi de bir s\u0131\u00e7rama daha ve tekrar yataya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Yeni bir krize kadar kamu borcu oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4262\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4262\" style=\"width: 602px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4262 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Federal-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani.jpg\" alt=\"ABD&#039;de Federal Bor\u00e7lar\u0131n Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131laya Oran\u0131\" width=\"602\" height=\"238\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Federal-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani.jpg 602w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Federal-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani-300x119.jpg 300w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Federal-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani-150x59.jpg 150w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ABD-Federal-Borcunun-GSYIHya-Orani-450x178.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4262\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">ABD&#8217;de Federal Bor\u00e7lar\u0131n Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131laya Oran\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bundan sonra da ABD cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n has\u0131las\u0131na oran\u0131 %2&#8217;leri ge\u00e7mez. %2&#8217;ler dahi asl\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD borcuna i\u00e7eride de m\u00fcthi\u015f bir talep var. Bilinenin aksine, varl\u0131k talebi sadece ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fcnyadan gelmiyor. Varl\u0131k talebinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck kayna\u011f\u0131 yine ABD&#8217;liler. ABD gelir ve servet da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n en fazla bozuldu\u011fu \u00fclkelerden. Gelir fakirden zengine ge\u00e7tikte, fakirin t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelirle zengin servet biriktirme yoluna gidiyor. Bunun sonucunda t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131na talep d\u00fc\u015ferken, varl\u0131k talebi art\u0131yor. ABD&#8217;nin \u00fcretti\u011fi bor\u00e7 ABD i\u00e7inde fazlas\u0131yla al\u0131c\u0131 buluyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ABD ekonomisi cari dengeye gelirse, bir kesim \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131racak. Rezerv para ile ilgili en b\u00fcy\u00fck arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 da ortadan kalkacak. Art\u0131k dengedeki ABD d\u00fcnyan\u0131n varl\u0131k talebini hi\u00e7 kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor hale gelecek. Asl\u0131nda \u015fu anki durumda da d\u00fcnya varl\u0131k talebinin ABD&#8217;nin \u00fcretti\u011fi bor\u00e7la kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Sadece %2&#8217;lik bir a\u00e7\u0131kla varl\u0131k talebinin kar\u015f\u0131lanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortada. Bu talebi kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek d\u00fcnyada geli\u015fmi\u015f bir \u00fclke yok. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc t\u00fcm geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke vatanda\u015flar\u0131 ve \u015firketleri g\u0131rtla\u011f\u0131na kadar bor\u00e7lu. \u00c7in&#8217;in de cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermek gibi bir niyeti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re varl\u0131k talebini mevcut ko\u015fullarda kar\u015f\u0131layacak bir \u00fclke yok. Varl\u0131k talebinin kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 ancak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irmesine ba\u011fl\u0131. Gerek \u00c7in&#8217;de gerekse geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde talep yetmezli\u011fini kal\u0131c\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131racak gelir art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalar g\u00fcd\u00fcl\u00fcrse, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar tekrar artar ve varl\u0131k talebini kal\u0131c\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla devreye al\u0131nacak yeni \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131 varl\u0131k talebini kal\u0131c\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin ABD ekonomisi b\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irirse tekrar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n varl\u0131k talebini kar\u015f\u0131layacak cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fcretebilir. T\u00fcm bunlar \u015fimdilik hayal. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc neoliberal politikalar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir finansal kriz ekonomileri yerle bir etmeden bir yere gidece\u011fe benzemiyor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada talep yetmezli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 daha fazla bor\u00e7 te\u015fvik ediliyor. Te\u015fvik eden de merkez bankalar\u0131. QE&#8217;de bu ama\u00e7la devreye sokulmu\u015ftu. Ama borcun gidece\u011fi yer kalmam\u0131\u015f. Ne kadar ittirsen olmuyor. Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken gelir pompalay\u0131p yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak. Ama b\u00f6yle pandemideki gibi bir kereli\u011fine aniden de\u011fil. Devaml\u0131 ve gere\u011fi kadar. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 bir gelir politikas\u0131 olsa, i\u015fletmeler kapasitelerini sat\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya ba\u015flar. Yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mla b\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fcr, gelen b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha fazla borca alan a\u00e7ar. Bu da varl\u0131k talebinin yeniden kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak ABD rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc bir s\u00fcre daha koruyabilir. Yine de mevcut geli\u015fmeler uzun vadeye yay\u0131lacak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>[1] &#8220;D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeli ticaret maliyeti&#8221;, s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi mal ve hizmetlerin hareketi ile ilgili olan maliyetleri ve engelleri minimize veya azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir durumu ifade eder. Bu durum, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki ticareti daha verimli ve daha az maliyetli hale getirir. S\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeli ticaret maliyetleri, tarifeler, kotalar, ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetleri, g\u00fcmr\u00fck prosed\u00fcrleri ve di\u011fer idari masraflar gibi fakt\u00f6rleri i\u00e7erebilir.<\/p>\n<p>[2] M.Pettis 14 Nisan 2021, Twitter<\/p>\n<p>[3] John Connally, ABD hazine bakan\u0131 1971<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rezerv para tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 BRICS \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin alternatif \u00f6deme sistemleri ve i\u015fbirliklerine odaklanmas\u0131yla yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi peki Rezerv para nedir? Rezerv para \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerinde tuttu\u011fu parad\u0131r. \u00dclkeler, ihtiya\u00e7 duyacaklar\u0131 bir para birimini bulamama ihtimaline binaen, bu paradan rezerv tutarlar. Su kesilme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k suyun binalar\u0131n depolar\u0131nda biriktirilmesi gibi bir uygulamadan bahsediyoruz. \u00dclkeler yabanc\u0131 bir<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4263,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,49,48,47],"tags":[188,263,261,207,262],"class_list":{"0":"post-4242","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-jeopolitik-risk-analizi","9":"category-kuresel-trendler","10":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","11":"tag-abd","12":"tag-dolar","13":"tag-renminbi","14":"tag-rezerv-para","15":"tag-yuan"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4263,"alt_text":"Rezerv Para Tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Yuan Dolar\u0131n Yerini Alabilir mi?","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1440,"height":960,"file":"2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi.jpg","filesize":244133,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-300x200.jpg","width":300,"height":200,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":10484,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-300x200.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-1024x683.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":58280,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-1024x683.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":7135,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-768x512.jpg","width":768,"height":512,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":37210,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-768x512.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-150x100.jpg","width":150,"height":100,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5769,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-150x100.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-450x300.jpg","width":450,"height":300,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":17351,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-450x300.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-1200x800.jpg","width":1200,"height":800,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":75121,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-1200x800.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-768x512.jpg","width":768,"height":512,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":37210,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi-768x512.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":4242,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Rezerv-Para-Dolar-ve-Renminbi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4242"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4242\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5416,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4242\/revisions\/5416"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}