{"id":4380,"date":"2023-04-22T15:52:54","date_gmt":"2023-04-22T12:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4380"},"modified":"2025-08-13T16:58:05","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T13:58:05","slug":"statik-bir-safsata-uzerine-friedman-tanstaafl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/statik-bir-safsata-uzerine-friedman-tanstaafl\/","title":{"rendered":"Statik Bir Safsata \u00dczerine : Friedman TANSTAAFL"},"content":{"rendered":"

“TANSTAAFL<\/strong>” k\u0131saltmas\u0131 (There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch) prensibi, Robert A. Heinlein taraf\u0131ndan 1966 y\u0131l\u0131nda yaz\u0131lan The Moon is a Harsh Mistress<\/a> adl\u0131 bilim kurgu roman\u0131nda ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. Kolonide ge\u00e7en bu romanda ele al\u0131nan prensip kaynaklar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olu\u015funa ve bedava hizmetlerin asl\u0131nda bedava olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.\u00a0 Ard\u0131ndan Freidman bedava hizmetlere ayn\u0131 vurguyu yapmak i\u00e7in bu kavram\u0131 iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fcne sokmu\u015ftur. Peki ger\u00e7ekten bedava yemek yok mu?<\/p>\n

Bedava yemek olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. E\u011fer ekonomi hali haz\u0131rda kapasite alt\u0131nda \u00fcretiyorsa para bas\u0131p da\u011f\u0131tarak (Free Lunch) asl\u0131nda at\u0131l kapasitenin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 sa\u011flanabilir. At\u0131l kapasite varl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da bedava yemek yenir. Para basmasan\u0131z ya da kamu borcunu art\u0131rmasan\u0131z bu yemek hi\u00e7 \u00fcretilmeyecek ve yenmeyecekti. Kamu borcunun has\u0131laya oran\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f ihtiyac\u0131 da kronik talep yetmezli\u011finden kaynaklan\u0131r. Modern ekonomiler para bas\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z olarak halka da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131 yasaklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in talep yetmezli\u011fine kamu borcunu art\u0131rmaktan ba\u015fka \u00e7are yoktur. Has\u0131laya oranla devaml\u0131 artmak zorunda olan bir kamu borcu gelecek nesillerin borcu da de\u011fildir. Bir g\u00fcn birileri taraf\u0131ndan t\u00fcm\u00fcyle \u00f6denmesi de gerekmez. Pek g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f bir \u015fey de de\u011fildir. Talep yetmezli\u011fi oldu\u011fu gibi talep fazlas\u0131 varsa kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp nette bir s\u00fcre bor\u00e7 \u00f6der. Talep fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 eriyince tekrar eskiye d\u00f6n\u00fcl\u00fcr. Esasen talebi para bas\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z da\u011f\u0131tarak canland\u0131rmak yasak oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in kamu borcu diye bir kavram var. Yoksa itibari para varken kamunun borca girmesine ihtiya\u00e7 yok. Ekonomiye ihtiyac\u0131 kadar para bas\u0131p hibe eder, mesele hallolur. Para da bir kamu y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kabul edilse de bir vadesi ve faizi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in borcun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 hi\u00e7bir probleme yol a\u00e7maz. Bor\u00e7lanmak yerine para basan bir h\u00fckumet bor\u00e7 krizine girmez mesela. Hatta devaml\u0131 nette bor\u00e7 \u00f6der. Bu durumun enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmesi ise ancak talep fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 halinde do\u011frudur. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler 2000’lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri talep yetmezli\u011fi \u00e7ekiyorlar. Bu d\u00f6nemde kamu borcunu da art\u0131rmay\u0131p \u00f6zel borcu art\u0131rd\u0131lar. T\u00fcketimi \u00f6zel bor\u00e7la desteklemenin sonu ise krizdir. \u00d6zel bor\u00e7 yerine para bas\u0131p da\u011f\u0131tsalar bu \u00fclkeler y\u0131llarca bedava yemek yiyebilirdi. \u00dcstelik finansal sistemleri de daha az t\u00fcketim fonlayan bor\u00e7la \u00e7ok da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada bor\u00e7suz devlet hemen hi\u00e7 yok. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin devletleri bir y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fclke has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde veya alt\u0131nda bor\u00e7lu. Kamu borcu gelecek nesillere ipotek koymak gibi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir \u015feyse demek ki b\u00fct\u00fcn geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke ekonomileri k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netiliyor. Tabi ki \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Hatta kamu borcu kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmasa geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde olurdu. Enflasyon %2’nin alt\u0131ndayken kamu bor\u00e7lan\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131na da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131. Talep yetmezli\u011fi ortadan kalk\u0131nca mal\u0131n\u0131 satabilen i\u015fletmeler daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar, \u00fcretim daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artard\u0131. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar devletin borcuna ki\u015fisel bor\u00e7 muamelesi yapman\u0131n sonucunda olamad\u0131. Bu yazd\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z arz yetmezli\u011finden<\/a> muzdarip T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil. Her hastal\u0131\u011fa ayn\u0131 ila\u00e7 verilmez. Bizim ilac\u0131m\u0131z ise TL cinsi yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ekonomilerin kronik talep fazlas\u0131 veya eksi\u011fi vermesi g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz bir durum. Talep yetmezli\u011fine sadece para politikas\u0131 \u00e7are olamaz. Mevcut para politikas\u0131 rejimi bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Talep yetmezli\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla bor\u00e7 ihrac\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eder. Ancak \u00f6zel kesim sonsuza kadar bor\u00e7lanamaz. Yeterli talep yokken yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in borcun sermayeye oran\u0131 olan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 y\u00fckselir. Y\u00fcksek \u00f6zel kesim kald\u0131rac\u0131 er ya da ge\u00e7 finans krizi getirir. Kronik talep yetmezli\u011finin sebebi gelir adaletsizli\u011fidir. Gelir fakirden zengine ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e t\u00fcketim talebinin yerini varl\u0131k talebi al\u0131r. Ekonomideki temel varl\u0131k ise yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131d\u0131r. Talep yeterli de\u011filken yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in varl\u0131k talebi de kar\u015f\u0131lanamaz. Sonras\u0131 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 patlay\u0131p patlay\u0131p tekrar \u015fi\u015fen varl\u0131k balonlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Talep yetmezli\u011finden varl\u0131k balonlar\u0131na giden bu mekanizma daha yeni yeni ke\u015ffediliyor. Hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok ba\u015f\u0131nday\u0131z. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar daha yeni yeni neden bu kadar borca ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011funu merak etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6yle m\u00fcthi\u015f bir yat\u0131r\u0131m seferberli\u011fi yok. Aksine yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Talep bu y\u00fczden de zay\u0131f. Ekonomiler ayakta kalmak i\u00e7in her krizde daha fazla bor\u00e7 pompal\u0131yor. Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenin kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak oldu\u011funu bir kesim kabul etse de kamu bor\u00e7 stoku oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi onlar\u0131n sesini de k\u0131s\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sistem para bas\u0131p bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeye izin vermiyor. Sebebi de malum. \u0130pin ucu ka\u00e7arsa enflasyon y\u00fckseliverir.<\/a> Maliye politikas\u0131 b\u00f6ylelikle kitleniyor. Para politikas\u0131 da \u00e7aresiz faiz indirip \u00f6zel borcu te\u015fvik ederek finansal kriz ta\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6\u015f\u00fcyor. Yani hali haz\u0131rda Freidman’\u0131n zannetti\u011finin aksine farkl\u0131 ekonomilerde bir s\u00fcr\u00fc “bedava yemek” bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u201cbedava yemek yok\u201d ifadesi, kaynak k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131nda ve tam kapasite \u00fcretime yak\u0131n ekonomilerde ge\u00e7erlidir. Ancak iktisat tarihi, kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde geni\u015fleyici maliye politikalar\u0131yla, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z para arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ve hatta bor\u00e7 silmeleriyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6rneklerle doludur. 1930\u2019lar\u0131n B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran\u2019\u0131nda Roosevelt\u2019in New Deal program\u0131, 2008 sonras\u0131 ABD ve Japonya\u2019daki niceliksel geni\u015fleme (QE) uygulamalar\u0131 veya COVID-19 d\u00f6neminde bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede hanehalk\u0131na do\u011frudan nakit transferleri, bu duruma somut \u00f6rneklerdir. Bu uygulamalar, k\u0131sa vadede enflasyon yaratmadan ekonomik kapasitenin daha etkin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada bor\u00e7suz devlet hemen hi\u00e7 yok. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin devletleri bir y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fclke has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde veya alt\u0131nda bor\u00e7lu. Kamu borcu gelecek nesillere ipotek koymak gibi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir \u015feyse demek ki b\u00fct\u00fcn geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke ekonomileri k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netiliyor. Tabii ki \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Hatta kamu borcu kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmasa geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde olurdu. Enflasyon %2\u2019nin alt\u0131ndayken kamu bor\u00e7lan\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131na da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131. Talep yetmezli\u011fi ortadan kalk\u0131nca mal\u0131n\u0131 satabilen i\u015fletmeler daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar, \u00fcretim daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artard\u0131. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar devletin borcuna ki\u015fisel bor\u00e7 muamelesi yapman\u0131n sonucunda olamad\u0131. Bu yazd\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z arz yetmezli\u011finden muzdarip T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil. Her hastal\u0131\u011fa ayn\u0131 ila\u00e7 verilmez. Bizim ilac\u0131m\u0131z ise TL cinsi yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ekonomilerin kronik talep fazlas\u0131 veya eksi\u011fi vermesi g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz bir durum. Talep yetmezli\u011fine sadece para politikas\u0131 \u00e7are olamaz. Mevcut para politikas\u0131 rejimi bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Talep yetmezli\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla bor\u00e7 ihrac\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eder. Ancak \u00f6zel kesim sonsuza kadar bor\u00e7lanamaz. Yeterli talep yokken yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in borcun sermayeye oran\u0131 olan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 y\u00fckselir. Y\u00fcksek \u00f6zel kesim kald\u0131rac\u0131 er ya da ge\u00e7 finans krizi getirir. Kronik talep yetmezli\u011finin sebebi gelir adaletsizli\u011fidir. Gelir fakirden zengine ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e t\u00fcketim talebinin yerini varl\u0131k talebi al\u0131r. Ekonomideki temel varl\u0131k ise yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131d\u0131r. Talep yeterli de\u011filken yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in varl\u0131k talebi de kar\u015f\u0131lanamaz. Sonras\u0131 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 patlay\u0131p patlay\u0131p tekrar \u015fi\u015fen varl\u0131k balonlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki bozulma, sadece i\u00e7 talebi k\u0131smakla kalmaz; ayn\u0131 zamanda tasarruf fazlas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretken olmayan alanlara kaymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Finansal sistem bu fazla tasarruflar\u0131 verimli yat\u0131r\u0131mlara kanalize edemedi\u011finde, spek\u00fclatif balonlar ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz h\u00e2le gelir. Bu durum, \u201cbedava yemek\u201din asl\u0131nda kimin i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu sorusunu da g\u00fcndeme getirir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m yapamayan reel sekt\u00f6r ve bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f hanehalk\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011fil, varl\u0131k sahipleri i\u00e7in \u201cbol ve ucuz likidite\u201d \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bir t\u00fcr bedava yemektir.<\/p>\n

Talep yetmezli\u011finden varl\u0131k balonlar\u0131na giden bu mekanizma daha yeni yeni ke\u015ffediliyor. Hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok ba\u015f\u0131nday\u0131z. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar daha yeni yeni neden bu kadar borca ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011funu merak etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6yle m\u00fcthi\u015f bir yat\u0131r\u0131m seferberli\u011fi yok. Aksine yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Talep bu y\u00fczden de zay\u0131f. Ekonomiler ayakta kalmak i\u00e7in her krizde daha fazla bor\u00e7 pompal\u0131yor. Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenin kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak oldu\u011funu bir kesim kabul etse de kamu bor\u00e7 stoku oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi onlar\u0131n sesini de k\u0131s\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sistem para bas\u0131p bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeye izin vermiyor. Sebebi de malum. \u0130pin ucu ka\u00e7arsa enflasyon y\u00fckseliverir. Maliye politikas\u0131 b\u00f6ylelikle kitleniyor. Para politikas\u0131 da \u00e7aresiz faiz indirip \u00f6zel borcu te\u015fvik ederek finansal kriz ta\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6\u015f\u00fcyor. Yani h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Friedman\u2019\u0131n zannetti\u011finin aksine farkl\u0131 ekonomilerde bir s\u00fcr\u00fc \u201cbedava yemek\u201d bulunuyor. As\u0131l mesele, bu bedava yemeklerin ne zaman, hangi ko\u015fullarda ve kimler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funun do\u011fru okunabilmesidir. Aksi h\u00e2lde, kapasite fazlas\u0131 olan ekonomiler bile kendi elleriyle f\u0131rsat pencerelerini kapatabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“TANSTAAFL” k\u0131saltmas\u0131 (There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch) prensibi, Robert A. Heinlein taraf\u0131ndan 1966 y\u0131l\u0131nda yaz\u0131lan The Moon is a Harsh Mistress adl\u0131 bilim kurgu roman\u0131nda ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. Kolonide ge\u00e7en bu romanda ele al\u0131nan prensip kaynaklar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olu\u015funa ve bedava hizmetlerin asl\u0131nda bedava olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.\u00a0 Ard\u0131ndan Freidman bedava hizmetlere ayn\u0131 vurguyu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[288,291,293,292],"class_list":{"0":"post-4380","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-arz","10":"tag-freidman","11":"tag-maliye-politikasi","12":"tag-tanstaalf"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4381,"alt_text":"TANSTAAFL nedir","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":273,"height":364,"file":"2023\/04\/Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949.jpg","filesize":12403,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949-225x300.jpg","width":225,"height":300,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":9208,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949-225x300.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":4118,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949-150x150.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949-150x200.jpg","width":150,"height":200,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":4947,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949-150x200.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4380,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Tanstaafl_-_dos_utt_-_1949.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4380"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5533,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4380\/revisions\/5533"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}