{"id":4386,"date":"2023-04-23T06:19:06","date_gmt":"2023-04-23T03:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4386"},"modified":"2025-08-12T19:20:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T16:20:15","slug":"arz-soklari-nedir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/arz-soklari-nedir\/","title":{"rendered":"Arz \u015eoklar\u0131 Nedir?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Arz \u015foklar\u0131<\/strong> nedir? Piyasa aksakl\u0131klar\u0131na dayal\u0131 analizlerde k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem toplam <a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/arz-esnekligi-nedir\/\">arz e\u011frisinin<\/a> t\u00fcretilmesinde, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde has\u0131la d\u00fczeyinin emek miktar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u2013 eme\u011fin tek de\u011fi\u015fken girdi oldu\u011fu ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da \u00fcretim maliyetinin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pwc.com.tr\/asgari-ucret-ve-asgari-ucretin-isverene-maliyeti\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00fccret d\u00fczeyine<\/a> ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi kabul edilir. Oysa ger\u00e7ek hayatta \u00fcretim s\u00fcrecinde emek yan\u0131nda ba\u015fka girdiler de kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Ara mallar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fin y\u00fckselince, \u00fcretim fonksiyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru kayar ve b\u00f6ylece eme\u011fin marjinal \u00fcr\u00fcn de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015fer bu durumda emek talep e\u011frisi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru kayar. Emek talep e\u011frisinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru kaymas\u0131 k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem toplam arz e\u011frisinin yukar\u0131 do\u011fru kaymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bu durum a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir;<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4387\" src=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari.jpg\" alt=\"Arz \u015eoklar\u0131 ve Emek Talep E\u011frisi\" width=\"606\" height=\"358\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari.jpg 606w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-300x177.jpg 300w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-150x89.jpg 150w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-450x266.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafikte ekonomi ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta P(0), Y(n) noktas\u0131ndad\u0131r. Burada emek d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki girdilerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn fiyat\u0131n\u0131n P(1) artmas\u0131 sonucu k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem toplam <a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/arz-nedir\/\">arz e\u011frisi<\/a> yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru kayarak <strong>SRAS(P(e) = P(0), P(I,1) <\/strong>konumuna gelmi\u015ftir.P(I,1) &gt; P(I,0) K\u0131saca ters arz \u015foku veyahut olumsuz arz \u015foku denilen b\u00f6yle bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik, ekonominin k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde P(O), Y(n) noktas\u0131ndan, fiyat d\u00fczeyinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve has\u0131lan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc P(1), Y(1) noktas\u0131na gelmesine yol a\u00e7ar. E\u011fer k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyat\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselme ge\u00e7ici ise, k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131 eski d\u00fczeyine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce ekonomi P(0), Y(n) noktas\u0131na geri d\u00f6ner. Ancak arz \u015fokunun ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen iktisat politikas\u0131 y\u00f6neticileri, olumsuz arz \u015fokunun has\u0131la \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli olumsuz etkilerini geni\u015fletici politikalarla giderme imkan\u0131na sahiptirler. Bu durum grafikte h\u00fck\u00fcmetin geni\u015fletici para ve \/ veya maliye politikas\u0131 izlemesi sonucu toplam talep e\u011frisinin d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru kayarak AD(1) konumuna gelmesi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da mal &#8211; para ve emek piyasalar\u0131nda dengenin AD &#8211; SRAS -LRAS e\u011frilerinin kesi\u015ftikleri P(2), Y(2) noktas\u0131nda sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Grafikte ters arz \u015fokunun has\u0131la &#8211; istihdam \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisini bertaraf etmenin maliyeti, fiyat d\u00fczeyinin P(1)&#8217;den, P(2) d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselmesi olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p>Pratikte arz \u015foklar\u0131 \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 sebeplerden kaynaklanabilir ve arz do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi talepten farkl\u0131 olarak esnek ya da likit de\u011fildir. \u015eokla y\u0131k\u0131lan bir i\u015fletmenin yerine konmas\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n durumu ne olursa olsun belli bir sabit zamana ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Arz\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131nda da ayn\u0131 esneklik sorunu s\u00f6z konusudur. Zannedildi\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck tesisler ve a\u011f\u0131r altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 istendi\u011fi anda durdurulamaz. Bu unsurlar arz\u0131n iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak hem k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r hem de \u015fok sonras\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcrelerini uzatarak art\u00e7\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131 destekler.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2851\" data-end=\"2947\"><strong data-start=\"2851\" data-end=\"2890\">1. Arz \u015eoklar\u0131n\u0131n S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong><br data-start=\"2890\" data-end=\"2893\" \/>Arz \u015foklar\u0131 genel olarak iki ana kategoriye ayr\u0131l\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2948\" data-end=\"3564\">\n<li data-start=\"2948\" data-end=\"3245\">\n<p data-start=\"2950\" data-end=\"3245\"><strong data-start=\"2950\" data-end=\"2978\">Olumsuz (Ters) Arz \u015eoku:<\/strong> \u00dcretim maliyetlerini art\u0131ran ve arz kapasitesini azaltan olaylard\u0131r. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani art\u0131\u015f, do\u011fal afetler, sava\u015f, tedarik zinciri k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131, tar\u0131msal \u00fcretimde verim kay\u0131plar\u0131 bu kategoriye girer. Sonu\u00e7 olarak fiyatlar y\u00fckselir, \u00fcretim ve istihdam azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3246\" data-end=\"3564\">\n<p data-start=\"3248\" data-end=\"3564\"><strong data-start=\"3248\" data-end=\"3268\">Olumlu Arz \u015eoku:<\/strong> \u00dcretim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, verimlili\u011fi art\u0131ran veya arz kapasitesini geni\u015fleten geli\u015fmelerdir. Teknolojik yenilikler, yeni do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n bulunmas\u0131, lojistik altyap\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmesi gibi durumlar bu kapsamdad\u0131r. Olumlu arz \u015foklar\u0131 genellikle fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken \u00fcretim ve istihdam\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3566\" data-end=\"4053\"><strong data-start=\"3566\" data-end=\"3605\">2. Arz \u015eoklar\u0131n\u0131n Politika Etkileri<\/strong><br data-start=\"3605\" data-end=\"3608\" \/>Olumsuz arz \u015foklar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar zor bir ikilemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131r. Has\u0131lay\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in geni\u015fletici para veya maliye politikalar\u0131 uygulanabilir; ancak bu, fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha da k\u00f6r\u00fckleyerek enflasyonu y\u00fckseltebilir. Tersi durumda, enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in daralt\u0131c\u0131 politikalar uygulan\u0131rsa, \u00fcretim ve istihdam daha da d\u00fc\u015febilir. Bu ikilem, \u00f6zellikle 1970\u2019lerde ya\u015fanan stagflasyon d\u00f6neminde belirginle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4055\" data-end=\"4285\">Olumlu arz \u015foklar\u0131nda ise fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00fcretim artt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, geni\u015flemeci politikalarla birlikte enflasyonsuz b\u00fcy\u00fcme f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011fabilir. Ancak bu durumun kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131, \u015fokun yap\u0131sal m\u0131 yoksa ge\u00e7ici mi oldu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4287\" data-end=\"4313\"><strong data-start=\"4287\" data-end=\"4311\">3. Tarihsel \u00d6rnekler<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4314\" data-end=\"5083\">\n<li data-start=\"4314\" data-end=\"4588\">\n<p data-start=\"4316\" data-end=\"4588\"><strong data-start=\"4316\" data-end=\"4338\">1973 Petrol Krizi:<\/strong> Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC) taraf\u0131ndan uygulanan ambargo, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde d\u00f6rt kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu durum, \u00fcretim maliyetlerini h\u0131zla art\u0131rarak bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme kombinasyonuna neden oldu.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4589\" data-end=\"4868\">\n<p data-start=\"4591\" data-end=\"4868\"><strong data-start=\"4591\" data-end=\"4621\">COVID-19 Pandemisi (2020):<\/strong> K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin bozulmas\u0131, \u00fcretim durmalar\u0131 ve lojistik k\u0131s\u0131tlar, d\u00fcnya genelinde ciddi arz \u015foklar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00d6zellikle mikro\u00e7ip \u00fcretimindeki kesintiler, otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6rlerinde uzun s\u00fcreli \u00fcretim kay\u0131plar\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4869\" data-end=\"5083\">\n<p data-start=\"4871\" data-end=\"5083\"><strong data-start=\"4871\" data-end=\"4899\">Tar\u0131mda Kurakl\u0131k Etkisi:<\/strong> G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olan b\u00fcy\u00fck kurakl\u0131klar, hem do\u011frudan t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hem de g\u0131da girdisi kullanan di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rleri etkileyerek arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu tetikler.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"5085\" data-end=\"5448\"><strong data-start=\"5085\" data-end=\"5110\">4. Uzun D\u00f6nem Etkiler<\/strong><br data-start=\"5110\" data-end=\"5113\" \/>Arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nem etkileri, ekonominin yap\u0131sal esnekli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Sermaye stoku h\u0131zl\u0131 yenilenebilen, \u00fcretim teknolojileri kolay adapte olabilen ekonomilerde toparlanma s\u00fcresi k\u0131sal\u0131r. Ancak a\u011f\u0131r sanayiye dayal\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcresi uzun sekt\u00f6rlerde (enerji, madencilik, demir-\u00e7elik gibi) arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi y\u0131llarca s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5450\" data-end=\"5726\">Ayr\u0131ca, olumsuz arz \u015foklar\u0131 uzun vadede \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, firmalar\u0131 enerji verimlili\u011fini art\u0131racak yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6nlendirebilir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta maliyetleri y\u00fckseltse de uzun d\u00f6nemde olumlu arz etkisi yaratabilir.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5728\" data-end=\"6187\"><strong data-start=\"5728\" data-end=\"5775\">5. Yap\u0131sal K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar ve \u015eoklara Diren\u00e7<\/strong><br data-start=\"5775\" data-end=\"5778\" \/>Ekonomilerin arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fcretim ve tedarik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi, enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, girdi ithalat oran\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Tek bir kayna\u011fa veya tedarik\u00e7iye a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, \u015foklar\u0131n etkisini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr. Bu nedenle bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, stratejik rezervler olu\u015fturma, kritik sekt\u00f6rlerde yerli \u00fcretim kapasitesi geli\u015ftirme ve tedarik zincirlerini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme politikalar\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6189\" data-end=\"6630\"><strong data-start=\"6189\" data-end=\"6201\">6. Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><br data-start=\"6201\" data-end=\"6204\" \/>Arz \u015foklar\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede fiyat d\u00fczeyini ve \u00fcretimi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyen, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k karar s\u00fcre\u00e7leri do\u011furan olaylard\u0131r. \u015eokun y\u00f6n\u00fc, kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kayna\u011f\u0131 do\u011fru analiz edilmeden uygulanacak politikalar, ya enflasyonu t\u0131rmand\u0131rabilir ya da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi gereksiz yere bask\u0131layabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, arz \u015foklar\u0131na verilecek yan\u0131tlar hem k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem istikrar\u0131 hem de uzun d\u00f6nem yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc dikkate almal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arz \u015foklar\u0131 nedir? Piyasa aksakl\u0131klar\u0131na dayal\u0131 analizlerde k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem toplam arz e\u011frisinin t\u00fcretilmesinde, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde has\u0131la d\u00fczeyinin emek miktar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u2013 eme\u011fin tek de\u011fi\u015fken girdi oldu\u011fu ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da \u00fcretim maliyetinin \u00fccret d\u00fczeyine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi kabul edilir. Oysa ger\u00e7ek hayatta \u00fcretim s\u00fcrecinde emek yan\u0131nda ba\u015fka girdiler de kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Ara mallar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fin y\u00fckselince,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":4387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[288,294],"class_list":["post-4386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-arz","tag-arz-soklari"],"better_featured_image":{"id":4387,"alt_text":"Arz \u015eoklar\u0131 ve Emek Talep E\u011frisi","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":606,"height":358,"file":"2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari.jpg","filesize":26347,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Arz-Soklari-300x177.jpg","width":300,"height":177,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5544,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-300x177.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Arz-Soklari-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":3267,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-150x150.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Arz-Soklari-150x89.jpg","width":150,"height":89,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":1915,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-150x89.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Arz-Soklari-450x266.jpg","width":450,"height":266,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":10054,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari-450x266.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4386,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Arz-Soklari.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4386"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4386\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5527,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4386\/revisions\/5527"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}