{"id":4400,"date":"2023-04-24T06:30:44","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T03:30:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4400"},"modified":"2025-07-22T00:15:52","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T21:15:52","slug":"turkiyede-faiz-tasarruf-iliskisi-zayiftir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/turkiyede-faiz-tasarruf-iliskisi-zayiftir\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye’de Faiz Tasarruf \u0130li\u015fkisi Zay\u0131ft\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye’de faiz tasarruf ili\u015fkisi<\/strong> \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan bir konu. Peki literat\u00fcrde iddia edildi\u011fi gibi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar T\u00fcrkiye’de faize duyarl\u0131 m\u0131? Tabloda derledi\u011fimiz ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar faizlerin tasarruflar \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin b\u00f6lge ve y\u0131llar baz\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Reel faizin tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda, \u00f6rneklem benzer \u00f6zellikteki \u00fclkelerden se\u00e7ilmi\u015ftir. Farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrlerden farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015flik d\u00fczeyindeki \u00fclkelerden se\u00e7ilen \u00f6rneklemlerde ise reel faizin tasarruflar \u00fczerinde etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015ftir. \u00d6rneklem, geli\u015fmi\u015flik veya co\u011frafya baz\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da faiz bir \u00fclke grubunda tasarruflar\u0131 etkilerken di\u011ferinde etkilemeyebilmi\u015ftir. Gupta\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, reel faizin tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 Asya \u00fclkerinde olumlu y\u00f6nde etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, b\u00f6yle bir ili\u015fki Latin Amerika \u00fclkelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmememi\u015ftir. Masson ve di\u011ferleri de \u00f6rneklemi geli\u015fmi\u015flik ekseninde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, reel faizin tasarruflar\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde olumlu etkiledi\u011fini, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde ise etkilemedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Faizin tasarruf etkisi zaman i\u00e7inde de de\u011fi\u015febilmektedir. Benzer Asya \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan 2 ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, reel faizin tasarruf oran\u0131na etkisi, 1962-1972 d\u00f6neminde pozitif, 1970-2000 d\u00f6neminde negatif bulunmu\u015ftur. 1960\u2019lardan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar t\u00fcketim kredilerinin krediler i\u00e7indeki b\u00fcy\u00fcyen pay\u0131 faiz-tasarruf ili\u015fkisini Asya \u00fclkelerinde de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f olabilir. T\u00fcketim kredilerinin yayg\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1960\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda faizin mevduat\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi bask\u0131n iken, 2000\u2019lere do\u011fru faizdeki y\u00fckselmeler, t\u00fcketim kredilerinin kredi kompozisyonu i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcterek tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemi\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde yap\u0131lan 7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmadan, 2\u2019si faizin tasarruflar\u0131 etkilemedi\u011fi, 5\u2019i ise art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 5 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmadan 1\u2019i reel faizlerdeki %10 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 %7 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 4 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ise %0,8-1,7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bulmu\u015ftur. Faizin tasarruflar \u00fczerinde olumlu etkisini g\u00f6steren di\u011fer \u00fclke ve \u00fclke gruplar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar da reel faizlerdeki %10 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 %2,1 ve alt\u0131nda art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla, reel faizin tasarruflar\u0131 olumlu etkiledi\u011fi durumlarda da bu etkinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna varmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00dclke gruplar\u0131 \u00f6zelinde yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Referans<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00d6rneklem<\/strong><\/td>\nBulgu<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fry (1978)<\/td>\nBurma (1962-1969, Hindistan (1962-1972), Kore (1962-1972), Malezya (1963-1972), Filipinler (1962-1972), Singapur (1965-1972), Tayvan (1962-1972)<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 %1,4-2,1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thanoon & Baharumshah (2005)<\/td>\n1970-2000 Malezya, Singapur, Tayland, G\u00fcney Kore ve Filipinler<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 1970-1995 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in %4, 1995-2000 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in %6 azaltmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Edwards (1995)<\/td>\n1970-1992 36 geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke<\/td>\nFaizin tasarruf oran\u0131 \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015ftir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gupta (1987)<\/td>\n1967-1976 22 Asya ve Latin Amerika \u00fclkesi<\/td>\nReel faiz \u00f6zel tasarruflar\u0131 Asya \u00fclkelerinde olumlu etkilerken, Latin Amerika \u00fclkelerinde etkilememektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Horioka, Hagiwara (2012)<\/td>\n1966-2007, Hong Kong, Hindistan, Endonezya, G\u00fcney Kore, Malezya, \u00c7in, Pakistan, Filipinler, Singapur, Tayvan, Tayland, Vietnam<\/td>\nReel faizin tasarruf oran\u0131 \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015ftir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Masson, Bayoumi, Samiei (1998)<\/td>\n1971-1993 y\u0131llar\u0131 21 sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke, 1982-1993 y\u0131llar\u0131 40 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke.<\/td>\nReel faiz \u00f6zel tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde olumlu etkilerken, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde anlaml\u0131 d\u00fczeyde etkilememektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00dclke \u00f6zelinde yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harris, Loundes, Webster (2002)<\/td>\n1994-1999 y\u0131llar\u0131, Avusturalya\u2019da yap\u0131lan Melbourne Institute Anketi<\/td>\nReel faiz, hanehalk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131f da olsa olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilemektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jongwanich (2010)<\/td>\n1960-2004 Tayland<\/td>\nFaiz hane halk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 d\u00fczeyde etkilememektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beznoska (2013)<\/td>\n2002-2007 Almanya Federal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu Hanehalk\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7e Anketi<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131 \u00f6zel tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 d\u00fczeyde etkilememektedir<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cardenas, Escobar (1998)<\/td>\n1970-1994 Kolombiya<\/td>\nReel faizin tasarruf oran\u0131 \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015ftir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Athukorala, Sen (2004)<\/td>\n1955-1998 Hindistan<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 %2 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
El Seoud (2014)<\/td>\n1990-2013 Bahreyn<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131 %0,18 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Matur, Sabuncu, Bah\u00e7eci (2012)<\/td>\n1977-2008<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 %1,2-1,7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
G\u00f6k (2014)<\/td>\n1985-2010<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 %7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00d6zcan, G\u00fcnay, Erta\u00e7 (2003)<\/td>\n1968-1994<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131 tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 d\u00fczeyde etkilememektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00d6zcan, G\u00fcnay, Erta\u00e7 (2012)<\/td>\n1975-2008<\/td>\nReel faizin tasarruf oran\u0131 etkisi 1975-2008 d\u00f6neminde anlaml\u0131 de\u011filken, 1988-2008 d\u00f6neminde\u00a0 reel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 %7 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u015eahin (2016)<\/td>\n1975-2014<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131ndaki %10 art\u0131\u015f yurti\u00e7i tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 %1,8 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00d6zlale<\/td>\n1987-2010<\/td>\nTasarruf mevduat faizlerindeki %10 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel tasarruflar\u0131 %1,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tun\u00e7, Yava\u015f (2015)<\/td>\n1999-2013<\/td>\nReel faiz oran\u0131 tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 d\u00fczeyde etkilememektedir.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Konut d\u0131\u015f\u0131 hane halk\u0131 kredileri tasarruflar\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Kredilerin tasarruflara etkisinin anla\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131m t\u00fcketim ekseninde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas<\/a>\u0131 gerekir. Hanehalk\u0131 kredilerinde, konut kredisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ta\u015f\u0131t, ihtiya\u00e7 kredileri ve kredi kartlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde t\u00fcketime harcanmaktad\u0131r. Konut kredilerinin t\u00fcketim-tasarruf etkisinin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Demirezen (2015)\u2019in 2002-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, konut kredilerinin ihtiya\u00e7 ve ta\u015f\u0131t kredilerine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketim etkisinin \u00e7ok zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Konut, ta\u015f\u0131t, ihtiya\u00e7 kredileri ve kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki %1 art\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketimi s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,005, 0,048, 0,049, 0,105 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Bu sonu\u00e7lar, konut kredilerinin t\u00fcketim yoluyla tasarruflar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etkisinin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n

Konut kredisi kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 konut edinme \u00f6ncesinde daha az tasarruf etse de, konut kredisi \u00e7ektiklerinde daha az faiz \u00f6demek i\u00e7in \u00f6deme planlar\u0131nda vadeyi k\u0131saltma taksit tutar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctme yoluna gitmektedir. Kredi kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 bor\u00e7 alt\u0131na girdiklerinde y\u00fcksek kredi taksitlerini \u00f6demek i\u00e7in daha fazla tasarruf etmekte ve kredi taksidi olarak bankaya yat\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Konut kredilerinin toplam krediler i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a bir yandan konut kredisi borcuna girenlerin tasarrufu artarken di\u011fer yandan gelecekte konut kredisi kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin tasarruflar\u0131 azalabilir.<\/p>\n

2002-2006 d\u00f6neminde konut kredilerinin krediler i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 h\u0131zla artarken, in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmi\u015ftir. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda konut kredisi oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na daha sert yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2008 sonras\u0131nda konut kredisi oran\u0131 ile in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar da benze\u015fmektedir. Hanehalk\u0131 kredileri i\u00e7inde konut kredisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndakiler t\u00fcketimi art\u0131rarak \u00f6zel tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, konut kredileri yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 destekledi\u011finden<\/a> benzer bir etkiye sahip de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcketime harcanan ticari krediler tasarruflar\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Kredilerin tasarruflara etkisi sadece hanehalk\u0131 kredileri analiz edilerek anla\u015f\u0131lamaz. Harcamalar yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim olmak \u00fczere ikiye ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan\u00a0 i\u015fletmelerin yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 her kredi t\u00fcketimi destekler, tasarruflar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. T\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 bir arada fonlayan ticari kredilerin tasarruflar\u0131 ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 birarada desteklemesi ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Demirezen (2015)\u2019in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki %10 art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcketimi %1,2 art\u0131r\u0131rken, ticari kredilerdeki %10 art\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketimi %0,5 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ticari krediler i\u00e7inde yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, t\u00fcketimi ve her ikisini de i\u00e7eren t\u00fcrler bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden ticari kredileri yat\u0131r\u0131m t\u00fcketim ekseninde tam ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

BDDK, bilgi ama\u00e7l\u0131 t\u00fcketici kredileri verisini yay\u0131nlamaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcketici kredileri ana ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda bireysel kredi t\u00fcrlerinin yan\u0131s\u0131ra taksitli ticari krediler ve kurumsal kredi kartlar\u0131na da yer verilmektedir. Bu iki kredi t\u00fcr\u00fc, taksitli ve k\u0131sa vadeli yap\u0131lar\u0131 ile i\u015fletmelerin k\u0131sa vadeli nakit ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya y\u00f6neliktir. \u0130\u015fletmelerin maa\u015f \u00f6demesi, sosyal g\u00fcvenlik primi gibi masraflar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak amac\u0131yla kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 krediler t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer ticari kredi t\u00fcrleri incelendi\u011finde, \u00e7o\u011funlukla belli bir ticari faaliyeti fonlamayan iskonto ve i\u015ftira senetlerinden alacaklar ve i\u015fletme kredilerinin, belli bir amaca tahsis edilen ihracat garantili yat\u0131r\u0131m, di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131m, ihtisas, ihracat, maden kredileri ve fon kaynakl\u0131 kredilere g\u00f6re t\u00fcketimi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc desteklemesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

Vade bak\u0131m\u0131ndan krediler ikiye ayr\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. 1 y\u0131l ve daha k\u0131sa vadeli krediler k\u0131sa vadeli, 1 y\u0131ldan uzun vadeli krediler orta ve uzun vadelidir. Ticari kredilerin k\u0131sa vadeli olanlar\u0131nda t\u00fcketimin yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

Ticari krediler yat\u0131r\u0131m t\u00fcketim ekseninde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Hanehalk\u0131 kredilerinin tasarruflara etkisi, 10. Kalk\u0131nma Plan\u0131\u2019n\u0131nda da ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yurti\u00e7i Tasarruflar\u0131n Art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130sraf\u0131n\u00a0 \u00d6nlenmesi Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cKredi D\u00fczenlemeleriyle Tasarruflar\u0131n \u00d6zendirilmesi ve \u00dcretken Yat\u0131r\u0131mlara Y\u00f6nlendirilmesi\u201d<\/em> ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 3. bile\u015feni:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2022 T\u00fcketici kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n makro ihtiyati tedbirlerle kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131 <\/em><\/p>\n