{"id":4674,"date":"2023-06-27T10:09:57","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T07:09:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4674"},"modified":"2025-07-20T02:49:49","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T23:49:49","slug":"turkiyede-para-arzi-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/turkiyede-para-arzi-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de Para Arz\u0131 Analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-rbd-draggable-context-id=\"2\" data-rbd-draggable-id=\"7f56e\">\n<div class=\"\" data-block=\"true\" data-editor=\"4b83f\" data-offset-key=\"7f56e-0-0\">\n<div class=\"public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr\" data-offset-key=\"7f56e-0-0\">Krediler \u00fczerine konu\u015furken T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki en kritik konu olan <a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/para-ve-kur-politikasinin-turkiye-ekonomisinin-ihtiyaci-olan-stratejiye-gore-konumlandirilmasi\/\">para arz\u0131 meselesini<\/a> ele alal\u0131m. Mx gibi para arz\u0131 analizleri geni\u015flemeyi g\u00f6stermiyor. M*V yanl\u0131\u015f zemin. Bu sadece nominal harcama talebi g\u00f6sterir. Para arz\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani asl\u0131nda para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in bize nominal harcaman\u0131n bor\u00e7tan gelen k\u0131sm\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bor\u00e7 kaynakl\u0131 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nominal harcamadan h\u0131zl\u0131 ise para politikas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z demektir.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-rbd-draggable-context-id=\"2\" data-rbd-draggable-id=\"fff9u\">\n<div class=\"\" data-block=\"true\" data-editor=\"4b83f\" data-offset-key=\"fff9u-0-0\">\n<div class=\"public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr\" data-offset-key=\"fff9u-0-0\">Enflasyona g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltseydik bile <a href=\"https:\/\/evds2.tcmb.gov.tr\/index.php?\/evds\/dashboard\/311\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mx \u00fczerinden para arz\u0131 analizleri<\/a> anlaml\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc M&#8217;nin i\u00e7inde kamu borcu yok, \u00f6zel tahviller yok. Bunlar para politikas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda de\u011fil mi? Kamu borcu ve \u00f6zel tahvil artsa M sabit kal\u0131rken V, yani dola\u015f\u0131m artacak. Ayn\u0131 V \u00fccretler artt\u0131 diye de artm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Bu analizde elmalarla armutlar ayn\u0131 yerdedir. Bu y\u00fczden M*V denklemi para politikas\u0131 analizinde kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaktan ba\u015fka bir i\u015fe yaramaz. Ek olarak para arz\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru ya da yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n cevab\u0131n\u0131 da vermez. Asl\u0131nda ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan cevap para arz\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131p artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde art\u0131p artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, istenen hedeflere ula\u015f\u0131p, ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-rbd-draggable-context-id=\"2\" data-rbd-draggable-id=\"femp3\">\n<div class=\"\" data-block=\"true\" data-editor=\"4b83f\" data-offset-key=\"femp3-0-0\">\n<div class=\"public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr\" data-offset-key=\"femp3-0-0\"><span data-offset-key=\"femp3-0-0\">\u00a0Peki hangi veriyi baz alabiliriz? Bir \u00f6rnek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da;<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-rbd-draggable-context-id=\"2\" data-rbd-draggable-id=\"4efqc\">\n<div data-offset-key=\"4efqc-0-0\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4675\" src=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi.jpg\" alt=\"Para arz\u0131 m2, m3\" width=\"1188\" height=\"517\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi.jpg 1188w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-1024x446.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-768x334.jpg 768w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-150x65.jpg 150w, https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-450x196.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px\" \/><\/div>\n<div data-offset-key=\"4efqc-0-0\">Y\u0131ll\u0131k ticari kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin oran\u0131 ile nominal has\u0131la b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin oran\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki bize para arz\u0131n\u0131n istenen hedefe ula\u015f\u0131p ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile alakal\u0131 bir fikir verebilir. Ticari kredi bakiyeleri, nominal has\u0131ladan h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yorsa para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z, tam tersi durumda ise ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 addedebiliriz. Asl\u0131nda ticari kredi bakiyesi yerine do\u011fru g\u00f6sterge t\u00fcm borcun y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi olmal\u0131yd\u0131. En isabetli sonucu t\u00fcm bor\u00e7lardaki de\u011fi\u015fimin, y\u0131ll\u0131k nominal has\u0131la b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki de\u011fi\u015fime oran\u0131, ili\u015fkisi verecektir.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-offset-key=\"4efqc-0-0\">T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de \u00f6zel tahvil piyasas\u0131 geli\u015fmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in para arz\u0131 \u00f6zel borcu yans\u0131t\u0131r. \u00d6yle bile olsa para arz\u0131 iyi bir g\u00f6sterge de\u011fil. Bir kere stok bir de\u011fer. \u0130ncelenen d\u00f6nemin \u00f6ncesini de kaps\u0131yor. Bize laz\u0131m olan incelenen d\u00f6nemdeki de\u011fi\u015fim. O de\u011fi\u015fimin nominal has\u0131laya oran\u0131 ne olmu\u015f? Yeni ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan para, nominal harcamadan, yani talepten h\u0131zl\u0131 m\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f? Talepten h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131ysa enflasyonu art\u0131rd\u0131 denebilir ve talepten yava\u015f artt\u0131ysa ve artm\u0131\u015f dahi olsa enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde etkiledi denebilir.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Krediler \u00fczerine konu\u015furken T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki en kritik konu olan para arz\u0131 meselesini ele alal\u0131m. Mx gibi para arz\u0131 analizleri geni\u015flemeyi g\u00f6stermiyor. M*V yanl\u0131\u015f zemin. Bu sadece nominal harcama talebi g\u00f6sterir. Para arz\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani asl\u0131nda para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in bize nominal harcaman\u0131n bor\u00e7tan gelen k\u0131sm\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bor\u00e7 kaynakl\u0131 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nominal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[422,408,232],"class_list":{"0":"post-4674","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-para-arzi","10":"tag-para-politikasi","11":"tag-turkiye-ekonomisi"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4675,"alt_text":"Para arz\u0131 m2, m3","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1188,"height":517,"file":"2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi.jpg","filesize":120854,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-300x131.jpg","width":300,"height":131,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8726,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-300x131.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-1024x446.jpg","width":1024,"height":446,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":52648,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-1024x446.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5303,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-768x334.jpg","width":768,"height":334,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":36193,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-768x334.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-150x65.jpg","width":150,"height":65,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":2629,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-150x65.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-450x196.jpg","width":450,"height":196,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":17328,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-450x196.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-768x334.jpg","width":768,"height":334,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":36193,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi-768x334.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":4674,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Ticari-Kredi-ve-Nominal-Hasila-Buyumesi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4674"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4674\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5123,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4674\/revisions\/5123"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}