{"id":4702,"date":"2023-07-12T14:14:12","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T11:14:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4702"},"modified":"2025-07-20T01:46:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T22:46:19","slug":"kronik-yuksek-enflasyonla-mucadele-ve-oneriler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/kronik-yuksek-enflasyonla-mucadele-ve-oneriler\/","title":{"rendered":"Kronik Y\u00fcksek Enflasyonla M\u00fccadele ve \u00d6neriler"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kronik y\u00fcksek enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede<\/a>, reel faizleri y\u00fckseltmek ve ekonomiyi resesyona sokmak, finansal krizlere ve \u00fcretim kapasitesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 kay\u0131plara zemin haz\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r. Bir yandan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen di\u011fer yandan faiz maliyetleri y\u00fckselen firmalar iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmektedir. Artan iflaslar ve i\u015fsizlik, kredi bat\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azd\u0131rmakta ve bankalar\u0131n \u00f6z kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmektedir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonla k\u0131sa vadeli m\u00fccadelede krediler firmalar\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilecekleri \u015fartlarda daralt\u0131l\u0131r. Ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesine m\u00fcsaade edilmez. Bununla birlikte, b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilerek, firmalar\u0131n maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm\u00fcyle fiyatlara yans\u0131tmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilir.<\/p>\n

Kredilerin daralmas\u0131,<\/a> bor\u00e7lular\u0131n net \u00f6deyici konuma gelmeleri anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kredilerde, net bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyicisi konumuna gelebilmek i\u00e7in harcamalar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 azalmayan firmalar cari ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131l karlar\u0131yla bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6der.<\/p>\n

Kredi faizleri, enflasyonun alt\u0131nda tutularak, bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6denmesi kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 eksi reel faizin ki\u015fisel tasarruflar \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in kredi faizleri ile enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki fark a\u00e7\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n

Kredileri arz taraf\u0131nda k\u0131smak kredi-mevduat faiz makas\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletirken, talep taraf\u0131nda k\u0131smak kredi-mevduat faizini makas\u0131n\u0131 daraltmaktad\u0131r. Makas darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 nispette mevduat faizleri daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede dengelenerek ki\u015fisel tasarruflar\u0131 destekleyece\u011finden, krediler talep taraf\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Halen hane halk\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 taksit, vade, pe\u015finat k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131na tabi tutulurken ticari kesim bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bu k\u0131s\u0131tlardan aridir. Kredilerden %85 pay alan ticari kesimin bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 gelirinin belli bir kat\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerindeki firmalar belirlenen s\u00fcreler i\u00e7inde bor\u00e7luluklar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Talep, krediler \u00fczerinden daralt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 nispette, \u00fccret ve kamu transferlerinde art\u0131\u015flara gidilir. Daralan kar marjlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00fccret ve transferlerdeki art\u0131\u015fla, geni\u015f kesimlerin milli gelirden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay b\u00fcy\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Kredileri daraltmak, enflasyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde de etkili olacakt\u0131r. \u0130thalattaki azalmayla birlikte cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131 azalacakt\u0131r. Krediler geri \u00f6dendik\u00e7e azalan TL mevduat, i\u00e7eriden d\u00f6vize talebi de zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kur riskini y\u00f6netilebilir hale getiren ara\u00e7lar devreye sokulur. TCMB, d\u00f6viz kuru seviyesi hedeflemez<\/a>, d\u00f6viz kuru oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedefler. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 belirlenen oynakl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7inde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 veya yukar\u0131 hareket edebilir. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile yurti\u00e7i fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 kapatacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselir. Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi, kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zamana yayarak, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda enflasyon s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, d\u00f6vizden reel getiri elde edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7er.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi, enflasyonun alt\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz kuru art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 zamana yayarak TL riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, TL yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede de d\u00f6viz baz\u0131nda getiri elde eder.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesinin yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi TL riski almaya ikna etmesi zaman alacakt\u0131r. TL riski almadan TL ara\u00e7lara yat\u0131r\u0131m imk\u00e2n\u0131 veren swap imkan\u0131n\u0131n kontroll\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fclkemize sermaye giri\u015flerini \u00f6ne \u00e7eker. Yabanc\u0131, swapla elde etti\u011fi TL fonun d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 taahh\u00fct eder. Yurda portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fleri, TCMB rezervlerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n

Bankada d\u00f6viz al\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015f kur makas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n\u0131n finansal sistemden yast\u0131k alt\u0131na ka\u00e7mas\u0131na sebep olmaktad\u0131r. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin yoklu\u011funda, fiziki d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n \u00e7eki\u015fleri rezervleri eritmektedir. Banka kurlar\u0131, kuyumcu ve d\u00f6viz b\u00fcfesi kurlar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha avantajl\u0131 hale getirilerek, yast\u0131k alt\u0131na ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f tersine \u00e7evrilir. Bu ama\u00e7la, fiziki alt\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz al\u0131mlar\u0131 vergilendirilir. Bankalar\u0131n al\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015f kur makas\u0131na \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirilir. Bankalar, al\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015f kur fark\u0131 olmayan d\u00f6vize endeksli vadesiz TL mevduat hesab\u0131 a\u00e7malar\u0131 i\u00e7in te\u015fvik edilir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k her ne kadar k\u0131sa vadede talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc politikalarla kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nsa da uzun vadede ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n has\u0131ladan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay y\u00fckseltilerek kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131, 2002 2006 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda %19\u2019dan %28\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde kadar yatay seyretmi\u015ftir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n iki temel belirleyicisinden birisi sat\u0131\u015f projeksiyonlar\u0131, di\u011feri finansmana eri\u015fimdir. Firmalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bozulmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in resesyona izin verilmez. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n finansmana eri\u015fimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in;<\/p>\n

Bankalara TL yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi hedefleri tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. Hedefini ba\u015faramayan bankalar ilave menkul k\u0131ymet tesis eder, daha y\u00fcksek faizden fonlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

TCMB, bankalar\u0131 kulland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kredileri nispetinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle fonlayarak yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi faizlerini %15\u2019in alt\u0131nda tutar.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesini peki\u015ftiren bir uygulamaya gidilerek, Hazine d\u00f6viz kredilerini, enflasyon \u00fczerindeki kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sigortalar.<\/p>\n

Hazine, hisse senedi fonlar\u0131na prim kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon getirisi garanti eder.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar hayata ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e, arz talebi kar\u015f\u0131lar hale gelecek, talepte k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gitme ihtiyac\u0131 kalkacakt\u0131r. \u0130hracat\u0131 ve ithal ikameyi art\u0131ran yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 azaltacakt\u0131r. Has\u0131la i\u00e7inde artan yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n %4\u2019ten %6-7\u2019lere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kronik y\u00fcksek enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede, reel faizleri y\u00fckseltmek ve ekonomiyi resesyona sokmak, finansal krizlere ve \u00fcretim kapasitesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 kay\u0131plara zemin haz\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r. Bir yandan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen di\u011fer yandan faiz maliyetleri y\u00fckselen firmalar iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmektedir. Artan iflaslar ve i\u015fsizlik, kredi bat\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azd\u0131rmakta ve bankalar\u0131n \u00f6z kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmektedir. Enflasyonla k\u0131sa vadeli m\u00fccadelede krediler firmalar\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilecekleri \u015fartlarda daralt\u0131l\u0131r. Ekonominin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4703,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[204,232,315],"class_list":{"0":"post-4702","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-enflasyon","10":"tag-turkiye-ekonomisi","11":"tag-yatirim"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4703,"alt_text":"T\u00fcrkiye T\u00dcFE enflasyon","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":757,"height":502,"file":"2023\/07\/Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani.jpg","filesize":65947,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-300x199.jpg","width":300,"height":199,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8374,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-300x199.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":3422,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-150x150.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-150x99.jpg","width":150,"height":99,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":2948,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-150x99.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-450x298.jpg","width":450,"height":298,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":17174,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani-450x298.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4702,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Tuik-Tufe-Enflasyon-Orani.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4702"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4702\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4704,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4702\/revisions\/4704"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}