{"id":4721,"date":"2023-07-16T13:30:42","date_gmt":"2023-07-16T10:30:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4721"},"modified":"2025-08-20T13:33:41","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T10:33:41","slug":"j-egrisi-nedir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/j-egrisi-nedir\/","title":{"rendered":"J E\u011frisi Nedir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

J e\u011frisi kuram\u0131na g\u00f6re, deval\u00fcasyon sonucunda net ihracat an\u0131nda artmaz. Deval\u00fcasyon<\/a> durumu olan bir ekonomide reel d\u00f6viz kuru y\u00fckselir. Reel d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesiyle beraber yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcretilen mallar yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallara g\u00f6re pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131r. Yurti\u00e7indeki al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcretilen mallardan yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallara kayd\u0131rmalar\u0131, k\u0131saca deval\u00fcasyonun ithalat\u0131n azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 zaman al\u0131r. Bu konuyu tam tersi \u015fekilde ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda deval\u00fcasyon durumundaki bir ekonomide reel d\u00f6viz kurunun artmas\u0131yla beraber yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallar yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcretilen mallara g\u00f6re ucuzlay\u0131nca, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 kendi \u00fclkelerinde \u00fcretilen mallardan fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen ithal mallar\u0131na kayd\u0131rmalar\u0131 da, k\u0131saca deval\u00fcasyonun ihracat\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131 da zaman al\u0131r. Yani ithalat talebinin fiyat esnekli\u011fi ( deval\u00fcasyon sonucu reel d\u00f6viz kurunda meydana gelen y\u00fczde bir oran\u0131ndaki bir y\u00fckselmenin ithalatta yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde azalma ) gibi, ihracat talebinin fiyat esnekli\u011fi de (deval\u00fcasyon sonucu reel d\u00f6viz kurunda meydana gelen y\u00fczde bir oran\u0131ndaki bir y\u00fckselmenin ihracatta meydana getirdi\u011fi y\u00fczde art\u0131\u015f da )ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fcr. Deval\u00fcasyonun fiyat etkisinin miktar etkilerinden ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da Marshall – Lerner ko\u015fulunun ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ge\u00e7ersiz oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelen bu husus hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, deval\u00fcasyonun ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta net ihracat\u0131 fiyat etkisi – ithalat\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran etkisi \u00fczerinden olumsuz etkiledi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin net ihracat\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r oldu\u011fu bir ekonomide deval\u00fcasyon ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ( negatif net ihracata ) yol a\u00e7ar. Ancak yurti\u00e7indeki ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeni nispi fiyatlara zamanla intibak etmeleri sonucu, fiyat esneklikleri giderek artar ve Marshall – Lerner ko\u015fulu bir s\u00fcre sonra ge\u00e7erli hale gelir, deval\u00fcasyon net ihracat\u0131 bir s\u00fcre sonra artt\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Deval\u00fcasyon ve net ihracat aras\u0131ndaki dinamik ili\u015fkiye y\u00f6nelik bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da grafik \u015feklinde g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir;<\/p>\n

\"J<\/p>\n

Dikey eksende net ihracat\u0131n, yatak eksende zaman\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 grafikte deval\u00fcasyon \u00f6ncesinde bir ticaret dengesi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vard\u0131r. Grafikte reel d\u00f6viz kurunda deval\u00fcasyon sonucu meydana gelen art\u0131\u015f, ticaret dengesi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeni nispi fiyatlara zamanla intibak etmesi sonucu Marshall – Lerner ko\u015fulu t(1) d\u00f6neminden itibaren ge\u00e7erli hale gelmi\u015f ve deval\u00fcasyon net ihracat\u0131n giderek artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Grafikte yer alan ve deval\u00fcasyon ile net ihracat aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi zaman boyutu itibariyle yans\u0131tan koyu \u00e7izilmi\u015f e\u011friye, J harfine benzedi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden J e\u011frisi <\/em><\/strong>denir.<\/p>\n

Deval\u00fcasyonun yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 t(0) d\u00f6nemi ile Marshall – Lerner ko\u015fulunun<\/a> ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu t(1) d\u00f6nemi aras\u0131ndaki zaman dilimi ise uzun d\u00f6nem olarak nitelendirilir. Ampirik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemin genellikle alt\u0131 ay ile bir y\u0131l aras\u0131nda bir s\u00fcreyi kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, deval\u00fcasyonun net ihracat\u0131 alt\u0131 ay ile bir y\u0131l aras\u0131nda bir s\u00fcre ge\u00e7tikten sonra artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Deval\u00fcasyonun net ihracat\u0131 k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde azaltmas\u0131, deval\u00fcasyonun k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde reel GDP \u2018yi de azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla deval\u00fcasyon yaparak hem ticaret dengesini olumlu bi\u00e7imde etkilemeyi hem de reel GDP \u2018yi artt\u0131rmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bir politika, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde ge\u00e7erli de\u011fildir. Bununla beraber makro iktisadi analizde bu husus yukar\u0131daki a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda oldu\u011fu gibi ihmal edilir ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da asl\u0131nda uzun d\u00f6nemde ge\u00e7erli olabilecek bir analiz yap\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n

J E\u011frisi Kuram\u0131n\u0131n Makroekonomik Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/strong><\/h3>\n

J e\u011frisi kuram\u0131, deval\u00fcasyonun etkilerinin zaman boyutunu anlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a kritik bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunar. Deval\u00fcasyonun k\u0131sa vadede net ihracat\u0131 olumsuz etkilemesi<\/strong> ve ancak orta-uzun vadede pozitif katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131<\/strong>, ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tasarlanmas\u0131nda dikkatle ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir unsurdur. \u00d6zellikle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde net ihracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla birlikte cari a\u00e7\u0131kta ge\u00e7ici bir bozulma ya\u015fanabilir. Ancak bu d\u00f6nemi do\u011fru y\u00f6netebilen \u00fclkeler, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme<\/strong> elde edebilirler.<\/p>\n

\n

1. K\u0131sa D\u00f6nemde Deval\u00fcasyonun Yan Etkileri<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Deval\u00fcasyon sonras\u0131 reel d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesi, ithalat maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131r. Ancak ithalat talebi k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde fiyat esnekli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in h\u0131zla azalmaz<\/strong>. Benzer \u015fekilde, ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz cinsinden d\u00fc\u015fmesi de hemen daha y\u00fcksek sat\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmez \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n talep al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi<\/strong> zaman al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Ticaret s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri ve lojistik s\u00fcre\u00e7ler k\u0131sa vadede esnek de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    \u0130thalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131na sahip ekonomilerde maliyetler de y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc an\u0131nda artmaz<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Bu sebeplerle, deval\u00fcasyonun k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde ticaret dengesini bozmas\u0131<\/strong> do\u011fald\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ithalat maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyonist etkisi<\/strong> de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Deval\u00fcasyon sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede hem cari a\u00e7\u0131k hem enflasyon ayn\u0131 anda y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p>\n

    \n

    2. Orta ve Uzun Vadede J E\u011frisi Etkisi<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    Marshall-Lerner ko\u015fulunun ge\u00e7erli hale geldi\u011fi t(1) d\u00f6neminden itibaren<\/strong>, yurti\u00e7indeki ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki al\u0131c\u0131lar yeni nispi fiyatlara uyum sa\u011flar:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      Yurti\u00e7indeki t\u00fcketiciler daha pahal\u0131 ithal mallar yerine yerli mallara y\u00f6nelir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki al\u0131c\u0131lar daha ucuz hale gelen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerimizi tercih eder ve ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> ba\u015flar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, net ihracat dengesi<\/strong> \u00f6nce iyile\u015fir, ard\u0131ndan kal\u0131c\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f trendine girer. Ancak bu olumlu etkinin g\u00fcc\u00fc, ekonominin \u00fcretim kapasitesine<\/strong> ve katma de\u011ferli ihracat yap\u0131s\u0131na<\/strong> ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. E\u011fer \u00fcretim ithalata a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131ysa, J e\u011frisinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n

      \n

      3. T\u00fcrkiye \u00d6rne\u011fi \u00dczerinden J E\u011frisi<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan J e\u011frisi, \u00f6zellikle ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fcretim<\/strong> ve y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz borcu<\/strong> nedeniyle karma\u015f\u0131k bir etkiye sahiptir. Deval\u00fcasyonun k\u0131sa vadede enflasyonu art\u0131rmas\u0131, reel gelirleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, i\u00e7 talebi de bask\u0131lar. Ancak uzun vadede, \u00fcretim kapasitesini art\u0131racak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar desteklenirse:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Yerli \u00fcretim ithal mallar\u0131n yerini alabilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Daha ucuz d\u00f6viz kuru, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc<\/strong> art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta kal\u0131c\u0131 bir daralma sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te en kritik unsur, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong>d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, deval\u00fcasyonun maliyet art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi, ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgeler.<\/p>\n

        \n

        4. Politika Yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar<\/strong><\/h3>\n

        J e\u011frisi kuram\u0131, para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n koordineli y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi<\/strong> gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterir:<\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          Deval\u00fcasyon sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde enflasyon ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak<\/strong> i\u00e7in, s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 ve hedefli vergi indirimleri uygulanabilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          \u00dcretim kapasitesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek yat\u0131r\u0131m te\u015fvikleri<\/strong> sa\u011flanarak, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k azalt\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in uzun vadeli d\u00f6viz kredileri<\/strong> ve kur riski sigortas\u0131<\/strong> devreye al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Bu politikalar, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli olumsuz etkilerin y\u00f6netilmesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, J e\u011frisinin uzun vadeli olumlu etkisini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n

          \n

          5. Sonu\u00e7: Zamanlama Fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00d6nemi<\/strong><\/h3>\n

          J e\u011frisi kuram\u0131, deval\u00fcasyonun ekonomik etkilerini anlamak i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe<\/strong> de\u011fil, zamanlamaya<\/strong> da dikkat edilmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. K\u0131sa vadede negatif etkiler ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r; ancak orta ve uzun vadede:<\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Ticaret dengesi iyile\u015fir,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            \u0130hracat artar,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Cari a\u00e7\u0131k kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Ba\u015far\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik unsur, bu ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecini y\u00f6netebilmek ve \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131<\/strong> azaltmakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler, J e\u011frisi etkisini avantaja \u00e7evirebilmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcretim yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na<\/strong>, ihracat \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesine<\/strong> ve kur riski y\u00f6netimine<\/strong> odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            J e\u011frisi kuram\u0131na g\u00f6re, deval\u00fcasyon sonucunda net ihracat an\u0131nda artmaz. Deval\u00fcasyon durumu olan bir ekonomide reel d\u00f6viz kuru y\u00fckselir. Reel d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesiyle beraber yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcretilen mallar yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallara g\u00f6re pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131r. Yurti\u00e7indeki al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcretilen mallardan yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallara kayd\u0131rmalar\u0131, k\u0131saca deval\u00fcasyonun ithalat\u0131n azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 zaman al\u0131r. Bu konuyu tam tersi \u015fekilde<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":4722,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[427,484,428],"class_list":{"0":"post-4721","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-devaluasyon","10":"tag-marshall-lerner","11":"tag-reel-kur"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4722,"alt_text":"J E\u011frisi Nedir?","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":477,"height":267,"file":"2023\/07\/J-Egrisi-Iktisat.jpg","filesize":9132,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"J-Egrisi-Iktisat-300x168.jpg","width":300,"height":168,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":2581,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/J-Egrisi-Iktisat-300x168.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"J-Egrisi-Iktisat-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":1568,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/J-Egrisi-Iktisat-150x150.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"J-Egrisi-Iktisat-150x84.jpg","width":150,"height":84,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":1185,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/J-Egrisi-Iktisat-150x84.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"J-Egrisi-Iktisat-450x252.jpg","width":450,"height":252,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":4437,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/J-Egrisi-Iktisat-450x252.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4721,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/J-Egrisi-Iktisat.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4721"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5588,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4721\/revisions\/5588"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}