{"id":4732,"date":"2023-07-26T09:19:33","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T06:19:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4732"},"modified":"2025-08-20T13:30:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T10:30:08","slug":"2023-haziran-temmuz-aylarina-iliskin-makro-tahlil-ve-ongoruler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/2023-haziran-temmuz-aylarina-iliskin-makro-tahlil-ve-ongoruler\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 Haziran-Temmuz Aylar\u0131na \u0130li\u015fkin Makro Tahlil ve \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>2023 Haziran-Temmuz Aylar\u0131na \u0130li\u015fkin Makro Tahlil ve \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimiz \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/h4>\n<h4><strong>Cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131 kurundaki 7 TL y\u00fckseli\u015f ithalat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini, ihracat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini te\u015fvik edecektir. Ancak, kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin 6 TL\u2019sinin bir aya s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek, cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerindeki etkinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Dolar kuru, y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan tekrar sabitlenmi\u015ftir. Dolar kuru sabitken, kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yurti\u00e7i fiyatlara ge\u00e7mesiyle, TL tekrar de\u011ferlenecek ve cari a\u00e7\u0131kta ilk duruma geri d\u00f6n\u00fclecektir.<\/li>\n<li>S\u0131k\u0131 maliye ve para politikas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daralmas\u0131na hizmet edecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"MsoHeading7\"><span style=\"color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;\">S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma etkileri hissedildikten sonra d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fseydi, kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fler \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f olurdu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Rezervler<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB+TR\/Main+Menu\/Istatistikler\/Odemeler+Dengesi+ve+Ilgili+Istatistikler\/Uluslararasi+Rezervler+ve+Doviz+Likiditesi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TCMB rezervleri Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 15 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r<\/a>. Rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fon \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 de\u011fil, yerle\u015fik bankalar olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. \u00dclke rezervlerinin finans sistemi i\u00e7erisinde yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi, cari a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir fark olu\u015fturmaz.<\/li>\n<li>Faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f finansman zay\u0131f iken, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daralt\u0131c\u0131 talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00f6nlemlere ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dclke rezervleri, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanma ile artar. Bu ama\u00e7la, bankalar\u0131n ve firmalar\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eden uygulamalara gidilebilir<\/li>\n<li>Swap yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n TL riski almadan TL ara\u00e7lara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00f6vizini \u00fclkemize \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 vermesini sa\u011flayan bir uygulamad\u0131r. D\u00f6viz almama taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren yabanc\u0131lara swap imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi, yurda sermaye giri\u015flerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminden yast\u0131k alt\u0131na kayan d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131nlar, kullan\u0131labilir \u00fclke rezervlerinin erimesine yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getiren d\u00fczenlemeler, yerle\u015fiklerin d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemine tekrar kazand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na hizmet eder. Bu kapsamda;\n<ul>\n<li>Fiziki d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n al\u0131m sat\u0131m\u0131na vergi getirilebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>D\u00f6viz al\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015f kur makas\u0131n\u0131 dar tutan bankalara ilave imkanlar tan\u0131n\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u0130\u00e7 d\u00f6viz talebi<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Ticari kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kredi arz\u0131n\u0131n artmamas\u0131, TL arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6viz talebini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli, makul getirili TL yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n talebini canl\u0131 tutmaktad\u0131r<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u0130\u00e7 d\u00f6viz arz\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>05.2023 haftas\u0131nda 125 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 ile zirveyi g\u00f6ren KKM bakiyesi bu tarihten itibaren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girmi\u015ftir. 27.06.2023 haftas\u0131nda 106 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 seviyesindeki KKM bakiyesi tekrar y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7erek 14.07.2023 haftas\u0131nda 114 milyar ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li>KKM d\u00f6viz talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamakta yaln\u0131z kalmaktad\u0131r. KKM bakiyesinin zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023 May\u0131s sonunda, bankalar KKM\u2019ye \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ilave primler \u00f6demi\u015ftir. Benzer durumlar\u0131n tekrar ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in, KKM d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yurti\u00e7inde d\u00f6viz talebini kar\u015f\u0131layan ara\u00e7lara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Hazinenin ihra\u00e7 edece\u011fi eurobondlar\u0131n bankalarca sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 sa\u011flanarak d\u00f6viz mevduat arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/li>\n<li>Bankalar edindikleri d\u00f6viz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 tan\u0131mlar. Kamunun ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi eurbondlar ve \u00f6zel kesimin d\u00f6viz kredileri bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131d\u0131r. Eurobondlar menkul k\u0131ymet tesisi kapsam\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r. Bankalar, sat\u0131n ald\u0131klar\u0131 eurobondlar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 tan\u0131mlar.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/turkiyenin-doviz-rezervleri-hakkinda\/\">D\u00f6viz kredileri d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131n\u0131n yurti\u00e7indeki bir di\u011fer kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/a> Firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz kredisi \u00e7ekmeleri te\u015fvik edilerek, d\u00f6viz arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131labilir. Hazine, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6viz kredilerini prim kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sigortalar.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f6viz kredisi sigortas\u0131 ile kur riski y\u00f6netilebilir hale geldi\u011finde, firmalar tekrar d\u00f6viz kredilerine y\u00f6nelecektir. Bankalar d\u00f6viz kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f kadar yeni d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 ihra\u00e7 eder.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f6viz kredisi sigortas\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesiyle, d\u00f6viz geliri olmayan firmalar\u0131n da d\u00f6viz kredisi kullanmalar\u0131na izin verilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride arz edilen d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan temin edilecek d\u00f6viz likiditeyi azaltmak i\u00e7in vadesiz d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131ndan d\u00f6vize endeksli vadesiz TL mevduat hesaplar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fler te\u015fvik edilir. Endeksli hesaplarda d\u00f6viz al\u0131\u015f ve sat\u0131\u015f kurlar\u0131 e\u015fit olur.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Yurti\u00e7i talep<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 seyretmektedir. Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u0131f\u0131ra kadar inmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>KDV art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 reel talebi bask\u0131lasa da enflasyonu y\u00fckseltecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Kurumlar vergisinin y\u00fczde 20\u2019den 25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, fiyatlarda art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7madan, talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Mevcut para ve maliyet politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun devam\u0131 halinde, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyreklerinde resesyon ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Resesyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6viz bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletecektir. Bununla birlikte, yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"335\" data-end=\"388\"><strong data-start=\"339\" data-end=\"388\">Makroekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Politika Y\u00f6nelimleri<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"390\" data-end=\"877\">2023 Haziran\u2013Temmuz d\u00f6nemi, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde <strong data-start=\"439\" data-end=\"512\">para politikas\u0131, rezerv y\u00f6netimi, d\u00f6viz talebi ve yat\u0131r\u0131m dinamikleri<\/strong> aras\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkile\u015fimlerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut s\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedeflerken, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00fczerinde daralt\u0131c\u0131 etkiler yaratmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, k\u0131sa vadede istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flarken orta ve uzun vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelinin korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong data-start=\"824\" data-end=\"862\">daha dengeli bir politika bile\u015fimi<\/strong> gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"879\" data-end=\"882\" \/>\n<h3 data-start=\"884\" data-end=\"933\"><strong data-start=\"888\" data-end=\"933\">1. D\u00f6viz Kurlar\u0131 ve Cari A\u00e7\u0131k Dinamikleri<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"935\" data-end=\"1394\">Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda dolar kurunda ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan temmuz itibar\u0131yla kurlardaki stabilizasyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli etkileri s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. K\u0131sa s\u00fcrede y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi, <strong data-start=\"1144\" data-end=\"1180\">ithalat maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131rken<\/strong>, ihracata olan pozitif etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir cari denge i\u00e7in sadece kur hareketlerine de\u011fil, <strong data-start=\"1307\" data-end=\"1348\">yat\u0131r\u0131m ve \u00fcretim kapasitesine dayal\u0131<\/strong> bir modele ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1396\" data-end=\"1669\">Uzun vadede cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde azaltman\u0131n yolu, <strong data-start=\"1451\" data-end=\"1507\">ara mal\u0131 \u00fcretim kapasitesini art\u0131racak yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan<\/strong> ge\u00e7mektedir. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, sadece ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmakla kalmayacak, ayn\u0131 zamanda <strong data-start=\"1601\" data-end=\"1645\">y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli ihracat\u0131n artmas\u0131na<\/strong> da katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1671\" data-end=\"1674\" \/>\n<h3 data-start=\"1676\" data-end=\"1722\"><strong data-start=\"1680\" data-end=\"1722\">2. Rezerv Y\u00f6netimi ve Sermaye Ak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1724\" data-end=\"2007\">Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana TCMB rezervlerindeki 15 milyar dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131, <strong data-start=\"1806\" data-end=\"1848\">yerle\u015fik bankalar\u0131n rezerv aktar\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong> olmu\u015ftur. Ancak bu art\u0131\u015f, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sermaye giri\u015fi anlam\u0131na gelmemektedir. Bu nedenle, orta vadede rezervleri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rabilmek i\u00e7in:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2008\" data-end=\"2338\">\n<li data-start=\"2008\" data-end=\"2098\">\n<p data-start=\"2010\" data-end=\"2098\">Bankalar\u0131n ve firmalar\u0131n <strong data-start=\"2035\" data-end=\"2069\">yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma kanallar\u0131na<\/strong> eri\u015fimi kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2099\" data-end=\"2210\">\n<p data-start=\"2101\" data-end=\"2210\"><strong data-start=\"2101\" data-end=\"2123\">Swap mekanizmalar\u0131<\/strong> geni\u015fletilerek yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n TL varl\u0131klara risksiz eri\u015fimi te\u015fvik edilmeli,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2211\" data-end=\"2338\">\n<p data-start=\"2213\" data-end=\"2338\">Yast\u0131k alt\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131nlar\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemine \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in <strong data-start=\"2286\" data-end=\"2317\">daha cazip mevduat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri<\/strong> geli\u015ftirilmelidir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2340\" data-end=\"2496\">Bu ad\u0131mlar, kullan\u0131labilir d\u00f6viz rezervlerini art\u0131rarak hem finansal istikrar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek hem de d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2498\" data-end=\"2501\" \/>\n<h3 data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"2546\"><strong data-start=\"2507\" data-end=\"2546\">3. D\u00f6viz Kredileri ve \u0130\u00e7 D\u00f6viz Arz\u0131<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2548\" data-end=\"2798\">KKM\u2019nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6viz talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamakta yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktada, <strong data-start=\"2621\" data-end=\"2640\">d\u00f6viz kredileri<\/strong> \u00f6nemli bir politika arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz kredisine eri\u015fimini te\u015fvik etmek ve kur risklerini y\u00f6netilebilir h\u00e2le getirmek amac\u0131yla:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2799\" data-end=\"3070\">\n<li data-start=\"2799\" data-end=\"2859\">\n<p data-start=\"2801\" data-end=\"2859\"><strong data-start=\"2801\" data-end=\"2828\">D\u00f6viz kredisi sigortas\u0131<\/strong> uygulamas\u0131 devreye al\u0131nmal\u0131,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2860\" data-end=\"2970\">\n<p data-start=\"2862\" data-end=\"2970\">D\u00f6viz geliri olmayan firmalar\u0131n da belli limitler dahilinde d\u00f6viz kredisi kullanabilmesine izin verilmeli,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2971\" data-end=\"3070\">\n<p data-start=\"2973\" data-end=\"3070\">Bankalar\u0131n eurobond yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 yaratma kapasitesi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3072\" data-end=\"3205\">Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, i\u00e7erideki d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak <strong data-start=\"3118\" data-end=\"3145\">kur bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak<\/strong> ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6viz likiditesine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3207\" data-end=\"3210\" \/>\n<h3 data-start=\"3212\" data-end=\"3259\"><strong data-start=\"3216\" data-end=\"3259\">4. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve Resesyon Riski<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3261\" data-end=\"3592\">Mevcut para ve maliye politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyreklerinde <strong data-start=\"3371\" data-end=\"3392\">resesyon ihtimali<\/strong> kuvvetlenmektedir. Resesyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletebilse de, yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7arak <strong data-start=\"3529\" data-end=\"3589\">potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3594\" data-end=\"3906\">Bu nedenle, kredi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sadece talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak yerine, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 destekleyecek bir yap\u0131ya evrilmesi kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. Uzun vadeli TL ve d\u00f6viz cinsi yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, orta vadede hem \u00fcretim kapasitesini y\u00fckseltecek hem de enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kal\u0131c\u0131 bir avantaj sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3908\" data-end=\"3911\" \/>\n<h3 data-start=\"3913\" data-end=\"3938\"><strong data-start=\"3917\" data-end=\"3938\">Sonu\u00e7 ve \u00d6neriler<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3940\" data-end=\"4240\">2023 Haziran\u2013Temmuz d\u00f6nemi, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde <strong data-start=\"3989\" data-end=\"4042\">d\u00f6viz arz\u0131, rezerv y\u00f6netimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131m finansman\u0131<\/strong> aras\u0131ndaki dengenin \u00f6nemini bir kez daha ortaya koymu\u015ftur. K\u0131sa vadede fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken, uzun vadeli potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u0131\u015f denge i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki ad\u0131mlar kritik olacakt\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4241\" data-end=\"4545\">\n<li data-start=\"4241\" data-end=\"4337\">\n<p data-start=\"4243\" data-end=\"4337\">\u0130\u00e7eride d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak <strong data-start=\"4274\" data-end=\"4319\">eurobond ve d\u00f6viz kredisi stratejilerinin<\/strong> geli\u015ftirilmesi,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4338\" data-end=\"4384\">\n<p data-start=\"4340\" data-end=\"4384\">KKM\u2019ye alternatif ara\u00e7lar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4385\" data-end=\"4457\">\n<p data-start=\"4387\" data-end=\"4457\">Yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin desteklenerek \u00fcretim kapasitesinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4458\" data-end=\"4545\">\n<p data-start=\"4460\" data-end=\"4545\">Rezervlerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi i\u00e7in <strong data-start=\"4493\" data-end=\"4526\">yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> te\u015fvik edilmesi.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4547\" data-end=\"4724\">Bu ad\u0131mlar e\u015f zamanl\u0131 uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hem cari a\u00e7\u0131k kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilir hem de yat\u0131r\u0131m ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli korunarak <strong data-start=\"4672\" data-end=\"4710\">orta vadeli makroekonomik istikrar<\/strong> sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2023 Haziran-Temmuz Aylar\u0131na \u0130li\u015fkin Makro Tahlil ve \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimiz \u015fu \u015fekildedir; Cari a\u00e7\u0131k Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131 kurundaki 7 TL y\u00fckseli\u015f ithalat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini, ihracat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini te\u015fvik edecektir. Ancak, kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin 6 TL\u2019sinin bir aya s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek, cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerindeki etkinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Dolar kuru, y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan tekrar sabitlenmi\u015ftir. Dolar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4733,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[216,204,232],"class_list":{"0":"post-4732","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-cari-denge","10":"tag-enflasyon","11":"tag-turkiye-ekonomisi"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4733,"alt_text":"T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi 2023 Temmuz Makro Analiz","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1280,"height":930,"file":"2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz.jpg","filesize":526086,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-300x218.jpg","width":300,"height":218,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":23881,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-300x218.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-1024x744.jpg","width":1024,"height":744,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":246280,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-1024x744.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8969,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-768x558.jpg","width":768,"height":558,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":143228,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-768x558.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-150x109.jpg","width":150,"height":109,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":6703,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-150x109.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-450x327.jpg","width":450,"height":327,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":50486,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-450x327.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-1200x872.jpg","width":1200,"height":872,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":333668,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-1200x872.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-768x558.jpg","width":768,"height":558,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":143228,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz-768x558.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"Istanbul","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"Istanbul","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4732,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Turkiye-Ekonomisi-2023-Temmuz-Makro-Analiz.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4732"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5587,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4732\/revisions\/5587"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4733"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}