{"id":4813,"date":"2023-09-29T10:32:28","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T07:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4813"},"modified":"2025-07-19T09:17:29","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T06:17:29","slug":"ana-akim-politika-hibrit-politika-karsilastirmasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/ana-akim-politika-hibrit-politika-karsilastirmasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ana Ak\u0131m Politika Hibrit Politika Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ana ak\u0131m politika<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Enflasyon<\/h4>\n

Ana ak\u0131m politika<\/strong>, enflasyonu negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vererek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, fiili has\u0131la potansiyel has\u0131lan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda verilir.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde enflasyon mevcut seviyesini korur. Bu durumda, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fmaz. Potansiyelin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fur, enflasyon y\u00fckselir. Potansiyelin alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fur, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fer. Potansiyelin \u00fczerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmede, talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Sat\u0131c\u0131lar, maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131tmaktan \u00e7ekinmez. Talebin zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi bir durumda, sat\u0131c\u0131lar fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmekte teredd\u00fct eder. Maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 sineye \u00e7ekerek k\u00e2r marj\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00fclkenin uzun d\u00f6nem ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olarak kabul edilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131 %5 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ana ak\u0131m politika, k\u0131sa vadeli bir perspektife sahiptir. K\u0131sa vadede sadece talep de\u011fi\u015febilirken, arzda bir art\u0131\u015fa gidilemez. Bu nedenle, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken potansiyel has\u0131la<\/a> hedeflenmez. Talep k\u0131s\u0131larak, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen has\u0131la potansiyel has\u0131lan\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilir. Talep k\u0131smak, enflasyon %2\u2019den %5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yeterli olabilir. 1 y\u0131l gibi bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde enflasyon tekrar hedefe getirilebilir. Buna mukabil, kronik y\u00fcksek enflasyonla m\u00fccadele 1 y\u0131lda kazan\u0131lamaz, 3-4 y\u0131l s\u00fcrer.<\/p>\n

3-4 y\u0131l gibi bir s\u00fcrede, potansiyel has\u0131la sabit de\u011fildir. Uygulanan ekonomi politikas\u0131na g\u00f6re potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6sterir. Enflasyonla sadece talep k\u0131sarak m\u00fccadele ediliyorsa, 3-4 y\u0131l kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelin alt\u0131nda tutulur. Tek m\u00fccadele y\u00f6ntemi talep k\u0131smak oldu\u011fundan, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in resesyona ba\u015fvurulur. Resesyon, iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin eksi gelmesi halidir. Resesyondan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenir. 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda %28,5\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselen yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n GSYH i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131<\/a> 2009 resesyonunda %22,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Di\u011fer yandan, ekonomi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken iflaslardaki art\u0131\u015flar ekonominin mevcut kapasitesinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da yitirmesine neden olur. Bu durumda, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha fazla talep k\u0131sma ihtiyac\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde, %5 d\u00fczeyindeki potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 resesyonda %3\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015febilir. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme %5 iken %3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanabilirken, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ayn\u0131 etki %1\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile sa\u011flanabilecektir.<\/p>\n

Kur<\/h4>\n

Kronik y\u00fcksek enflasyonla sadece talep k\u0131sarak m\u00fccadele etmek, anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, 3-4 sene zarf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin giderek artan bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektir. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc devam ettirmek i\u00e7in talebi daha fazla k\u0131smak, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek gerekir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun %20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00f6vize endeksleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki \u00f6zellikle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler firmalara ayn\u0131 anda fiyat art\u0131rmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015faret fi\u015fe\u011fi i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Firmalar ayn\u0131 anda fiyat art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131nda oligopol davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterirler<\/a>. M\u00fc\u015fteri, fiyat art\u0131rmayan firmay\u0131 tercih edemeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in oligopol fiyat art\u0131rma davran\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan t\u00fcm firmalar karl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n

Fiyatlar d\u00f6vize endekslendi\u011finde sadece ithal mal girdileri nispetinde artmaz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ithalat\u0131 kabaca GSYH\u2019sinin \u00fc\u00e7te biri kadard\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da \u00fc\u00e7te bir oran\u0131nda fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131 beklenir. Ancak, fiyat\u0131 d\u00f6vize endeksleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, firmalar kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bu sayede, \u00fccretler y\u00fckselene kadar kar marjlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olurlar. Fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00f6vize endekslenmesi, kur ataklar\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken dezavantaj olabilece\u011fi gibi, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde avantaja d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/p>\n

Ana ak\u0131m politika, b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 yurda yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7ekerek a\u015fmay\u0131 hedefler. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kur gev\u015fer, TL de\u011ferlenir. Bir yandan ithal mal fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, di\u011fer yandan yurti\u00e7i fiyatlar\u0131 da kura endeksleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle i\u00e7eride \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da yava\u015flar. Enflasyon kurdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden talebi k\u0131sma ihtiyac\u0131 azal\u0131r. Ekonomi potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcrken dahi, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferlenmesi ile enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fer. Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferlenmesi ve yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri TL ve YP kredi faizlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Y\u00fckselen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u00fc\u015fen faizlerin etkisiyle yat\u0131r\u0131mlar artar, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fckselir. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa dahi enflasyon y\u00fckselmeyebilir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 artan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. 2002-2005 aras\u0131nda, enflasyon %8\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015ferken bu senaryo ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ana ak\u0131m, enflasyonu talep k\u0131smadan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi yurda \u00e7ekmeyi ama\u00e7lar. Ancak, 2002-2005 aras\u0131nda enflasyonda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \u00f6rnek al\u0131n\u0131rken, bu d\u00f6nemi haz\u0131rlayan 2001 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelinir. 2001 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki ekonomik krizin ard\u0131ndan, ekonomi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek dengelendi. Resesyonda, ithalat talebinin azalmas\u0131yla d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 kalkt\u0131, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girdi. TL\u2019nin de\u011feri istikrar kazand\u0131ktan sonra yabanc\u0131 sermaye TL ara\u00e7lara girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ana ak\u0131m politikan\u0131n TL\u2019ye istikrar kazand\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeg\u00e2ne arac\u0131 faizdir. Y\u00fckselen reel faiz, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi i\u00e7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir cazibe kayna\u011f\u0131 olamaz. Kur ataklar\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken ayda %20 (y\u0131ll\u0131k %240 basit faiz getirisi) mevduat faizi dahi cazip de\u011fildir. Dolar kurunda bir hafta i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanacak bir art\u0131\u015fla yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 faiz getirisinden daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaybedebilir.<\/p>\n

Reel faizdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin TL\u2019ye istikrar kazand\u0131rmas\u0131 aslen ekonomiyi yava\u015flatmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. Enflasyonun %20 ve \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu durumlarda, TL ancak ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi ile istikrar kazan\u0131r. Eksi b\u00fcy\u00fcmede, cari dengeye ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 ortadan kalkar. Yabanc\u0131, kendisine ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda gelir. Ekonominin d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 devam ederken, TL ile ilgili \u00e7ekinceler devam eder. Bir kere yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fi ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmenin etkisiyle, TL ara\u00e7lar\u0131n getirileri dolar cinsi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kar. Y\u00fcksek TL getirisi daha fazla yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7eker. Bu d\u00f6ng\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, TL de\u011ferlenir, cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Sermaye giri\u015fleri, genellikle ABD\u2019deki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde veya finansal \u015foklarda tersine d\u00f6ner. B\u00f6ylesi d\u00f6nemlerde, faiz y\u00fckseltmek sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 engellemez. 2008-2017 aras\u0131nda enflasyon %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine hi\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde, sermaye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u0131ll\u0131k kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 5 defa %25\u2019i a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu 5 kur ata\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde sadece 2008-2009 y\u0131llar\u0131nda, dolar kuru y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi %-10\u2019dan %39\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Kurda y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen 5 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde sadece 2008-2009\u2019da enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fin olmamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni bu iki y\u0131lda kaydedilen %0,8 ve %-4,7 oranlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131d\u0131r. Reel faiz ancak ekonomiyi yava\u015flatabildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde TL\u2019ye istikrar kazand\u0131r\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc nispette, ekonominin cari a\u00e7\u0131k ihtiyac\u0131 azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, ana ak\u0131m politikada, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u0131\u015f finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, reel faizleri y\u00fckseltmek sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na engel olamaz. Sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rezervlerin erimemesi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekilerek cari dengeye yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politika <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Enflasyon<\/h4>\n

Hibrit politika, ana ak\u0131m politikan\u0131n varsay\u0131mlar\u0131ndan hareket eder. Enflasyon, fiili has\u0131la potansiyel has\u0131lan\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u00fcr. Hibrit politikan\u0131n enflasyon perspektifindeki temel fark uzun vadeyi de dikkate almas\u0131d\u0131r. Kronik y\u00fcksek enflasyonla 3-4 senelik m\u00fccadele esnas\u0131nda, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi de hedeflenir.<\/p>\n

Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in talep daha az k\u0131s\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dclkemiz \u00f6zelinde, %5 d\u00fczeyindeki uzun d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131 potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Potansiyel has\u0131la, ekonominin enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmeden kullanabildi\u011fi \u00fcretim kapasitesidir. \u00dcretim kapasitesi yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla art\u0131r\u0131labilir. Ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 azal\u0131r. Firmalar, mevcut kapasitelerini kullanamazken ilave yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaktan imtina eder.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonla sadece k\u0131sa vadeli m\u00fccadele ekonomiyi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye varabilir. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen ekonomide yat\u0131r\u0131m iklimi bozulur. Yat\u0131r\u0131m GSYH oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirebilmek i\u00e7in, takip eden d\u00f6nemde fiili b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 devam ettirmek, hatta art\u0131rmak gerekir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonla sadece uzun vadeli m\u00fccadele yat\u0131r\u0131m iklimini iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilmemesine, hatta \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fazlas\u0131 verilmesine varabilir. Ekonomi potansiyelinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyorsa enflasyon yatay seyreder. Ekonomi potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyorsa enflasyon k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckselir. Enflasyonun k\u0131sa vadede yatay seyretmesi veya y\u00fckselmesi, beklentileri bozarak sonraki d\u00f6nemlerde enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politika, enflasyonla k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli m\u00fccadele aras\u0131nda bir denge kurar. K\u0131sa vadede, talepte \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kesintiye gidilir. Ekonomi, resesyona sokulmaz. Enflasyon \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine sokulur. Il\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlara imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Enflasyondaki kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n faaliyete ge\u00e7erek potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %5\u2019ten %7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, %3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile enflasyonda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir. Potansiyel ve fiili b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda %4\u2019l\u00fck bir fark olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %5 iken fiili b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 %1\u2019e \u00e7ekmek gerekmekteydi. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi resesyon b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131rmadan enflasyonu hedefe getirmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politika, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin muzdarip oldu\u011fu arz yetmezli\u011fini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r. 19. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan itibaren, i\u00e7erideki \u00fcretim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Sanayile\u015fme \u00e7abalar\u0131, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklanan talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamakta yetersiz kald\u0131. \u0130\u00e7eride kar\u015f\u0131lanamayan talebin d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan ithalat ile kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 yoluna gidildi. Osmanl\u0131 19. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan \u00f6nce de daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmakla birlikte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k veriyordu. Sava\u015flardan elde edilen ganimetler \u00fclkede ciddi miktarda alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f birikmesini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 19. y\u00fczy\u0131lda, Avrupa\u2019daki sanayile\u015fmenin etkisiyle, cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, eskisi gibi zaferler elde edilemiyordu. \u00dclkedeki alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rezervlerinin t\u00fckenmesinin ard\u0131ndan, cari a\u00e7\u0131k d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7la finanse edilir oldu.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkemizde, y\u00fczy\u0131llard\u0131r cari a\u00e7\u0131k talep fazlas\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanma y\u00f6ntemidir. 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda, ithalat\u0131n %8,4\u2019\u00fc nihai mallardan, %11,1\u2019i sermaye mallar\u0131ndan, %80,4\u2019\u00fc ara mallar\u0131ndan olu\u015fmu\u015ftur. Nihai mal ve ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 toplam ithalat\u0131n %89\u2019unu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. \u0130thalat\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131na yakla\u015fan ara mal\u0131 ve nihai mallar, i\u00e7 talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamaktad\u0131r. Nihai mallar do\u011frudan piyasaya sunulurken, ara mallar\u0131 i\u00e7eride \u00fcretim s\u00fcrecine sokulduktan sonra piyasaya sunulmaktad\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilemeyen d\u00f6nemlerde, i\u00e7 talebi k\u0131sma ihtiyac\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u00e7 talep k\u0131s\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 uzun d\u00f6nem dengenin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmektedir. Bu nedenle, \u00fclkemizin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politikada, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar faaliyet sokulur. Bu ama\u00e7la, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n finansmandan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve ihracat garantili yat\u0131r\u0131m t\u00fcrlerinin toplam\u0131n\u0131n TL kredilerden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay %3\u2019\u00fc, YP kredilerden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay %25\u2019i ge\u00e7memektedir. Bu iki kredi t\u00fcr\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli ticari kredilerin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 fonlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinmemektedir.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkemizde, ortalama vade TL kredilerde 12 ay, YP kredilerde 18 ayd\u0131r. Bir yandan, finansal sistemin 3 y\u0131l ve \u00fczerinde vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi vermesi sa\u011flan\u0131rken di\u011fer yandan k\u0131sa vadeli ticari kredilerin de belli oranda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 fonlamas\u0131 \u015fart ko\u015fulur.<\/p>\n

TCMB, TL ve YP yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin faizini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ara\u00e7lar\u0131 devreye sokar. Bankalar, kulland\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin belli bir oran\u0131nda TCMB\u2019den faizsiz bor\u00e7lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

TCMB\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi program\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek i\u00e7in yeterli olmaz. \u00dclkemizin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %5\u2019ten %7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n %30\u2019dan %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karmak gerekir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kredi ile fonlanmas\u0131 halinde, her y\u0131l GSYH\u2019nin %20\u2019si kadar yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gerekecektir. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH 15 trilyon TL, toplam kredi hacmi 7,5 trilyon TL kadard\u0131r. GSYH\u2019nin %20\u2019sine tekab\u00fcl eden 3 trilyon TL tutar\u0131ndaki kredi geni\u015flemesi ilk sene toplam kredinin %40\u2019\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Bankalar\u0131n t\u00fcm \u015fubelerini faal hale getiren, kararlar\u0131n yerinden al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yap\u0131da, yat\u0131r\u0131m kredilerinin toplam kredilerden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk sene %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kredi ile fonlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ilave kaynak gerekmez. Bankalar, sermayeleri m\u00fcsaade etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece kredi geni\u015flemesine gidebilirler. Banka karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 yeterli oldu\u011funda, sermaye kardan takviye edilerek, kredi geni\u015flemesi yap\u0131labilir. Bankalar, karl\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri s\u00fcrece yeni kredi vermeyi tercih eder. Ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc kredi verme e\u011filimindedir. Ekonominin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde, kredi bat\u0131klar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar bankalar\u0131n kredi verme i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131r. Hibrit politikada, ekonomi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi i\u00e7in bankalar kredi vermeye istekli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131m has\u0131la oran\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rsa, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele de o denli k\u0131sa s\u00fcrecektir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n faaliyete ge\u00e7mesinin 1 sene kadar alaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, arzdaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ikinci seneden itibaren enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etki yapacakt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131m has\u0131la oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f gecikti\u011fi nispette, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ana ak\u0131m politikaya m\u00fcracaat etme ihtiyac\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Talepte daha fazla k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gidilir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131f\u0131ra, hatta s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar bu durumda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi i\u00e7in politikan\u0131n arz taraf\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa u\u011frar.<\/p>\n

Kur<\/h4>\n

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede, para politikas\u0131 kadar kur politikas\u0131 da hibrit politika alt\u0131nda etkin kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Fiyatlar\u0131 kura endeksleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde, kur enflasyonun temel belirleyicisi haline gelmektedir. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki enflasyonun \u00fczerindeki art\u0131\u015flar enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesine neden olmaktad\u0131r. Kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fcn, hafta gibi k\u0131sa zaman aral\u0131klar\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131nda firmalara fiyatlar\u0131 birlikte art\u0131rma f\u0131rsat\u0131 vermektedir. E\u015f zamanl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, \u00fccretler artana kadar firmalar\u0131n karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmalar\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politikan\u0131n ana eksenini oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi olu\u015fturur. Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesinde kur seviyesi hedeflenmez, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedeflenir. TCMB, d\u00f6viz kuru oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirledi\u011fi seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda al\u0131m veya sat\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde piyasaya m\u00fcdahale eder. Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi alt\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ani ini\u015f veya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6stermez. D\u00f6viz kuru art\u0131\u015f veya azal\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zamana yay\u0131l\u0131r. Kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, zamana yay\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a firmalar\u0131n fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 senkronize etmekten \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n

Kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fi zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmaz. Talebin de k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki fiili b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda, firmalar\u0131 fiyatlarda art\u0131\u015fa gitmekte teredd\u00fct eder. Sat\u0131\u015flar beklendi\u011fi kadar artmazken, bir de fiyat art\u0131rmak, cironun daha fazla gerilemesine yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00dcstelik, firmalar farkl\u0131 zamanlarda fiyat art\u0131r\u0131rken, m\u00fc\u015fterilerin fiyat art\u0131ran firma yerine fiyat art\u0131rmayan firmay\u0131 tercih etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 da ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ani ve h\u0131zl\u0131 kur y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fi zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in talepte daha \u015fiddetli k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya ihtiya\u00e7 duyulur.<\/p>\n

Kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a, ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 yurti\u00e7i fiyatlardan fazla artar. \u0130thalat\u0131n pahalanmas\u0131 ihracat\u0131n cazip hale gelmesi ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte cari dengeye yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 rezervlerdeki erimenin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f olur.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi, ekonominin cari dengeye yakla\u015fmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken yurda yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de a\u00e7ar. Yabanc\u0131, TL ara\u00e7lar\u0131n d\u00f6viz cinsi getirisini dikkate al\u0131r. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ya\u015fanan d\u00f6nemlerde, \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek getirili TL yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131 dahi yabanc\u0131 sermayeye cazip gelmez. Dolar kuru bir haftada %10 artabiliyorsa, yabanc\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %500 getirili TL mevduattan dahi haftal\u0131k bazda zarar yazabilir.<\/p>\n

Yabanc\u0131 sermayenin yurda \u00e7ekilebilmesi i\u00e7in birinci \u00f6ncelik getirinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011fil, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na istikrar kazand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesinde d\u00f6viz kuru art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zamana e\u015fit yay\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan, kur \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir hale gelmektedir. Enflasyona yak\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuru art\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011finden, enflasyon \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek TL getirisi vadetme ihtiyac\u0131 ortadan kalkar.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n yurti\u00e7i enflasyona yak\u0131n artmas\u0131 TL\u2019nin rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fini muhafaza etmektedir. Bir \u00f6rnek \u00fczerinden anlat\u0131lacak olursa, bir mal\u0131n ilk durumdaki fiyat\u0131 yurti\u00e7inde ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 1000 TL, 100 USD olsun. Enflasyon yurti\u00e7inde %50, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda %3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kur sabitken, fiyat i\u00e7eride 150 TL, d\u0131\u015far\u0131da 1030 USD olacakt\u0131r. Bu ikisini birbirine e\u015fitleyen kur seviyesi ise (1030\/150) 14,56 TL\u2019dir. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki %45,6 oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f enflasyon y\u00fczde 50 iken TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini muhafaza etmek i\u00e7in yeterli olmu\u015ftur. Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesinde, yurti\u00e7i enflasyona yak\u0131n bir kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini muhafaza edece\u011finden, yurti\u00e7i enflasyon \u00fczerinde getirili TL ara\u00e7lar\u0131 yabanc\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip hale gelecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm vadelerde enflasyona yak\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 temin edecektir.<\/p>\n

Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, TL\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli hale geldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, 6 ay gibi bir s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, biraz daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa m\u00fcsaade edilir. D\u0131\u015f finansman imkanlar\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iken, kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyonu ge\u00e7er. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, fiili b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin alt\u0131nda tutulur. Zay\u0131f talep ve zamana yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle, kurdan enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015f en aza d\u00fc\u015fer. B\u00f6ylelikle, kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 en \u00fcst d\u00fczeyde reel kura yans\u0131r. Bir kere TL rekabet\u00e7i hale geldikten sonra, enflasyona yak\u0131n kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131 TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini muhafaza eder. Enflasyon \u00fczerinde getirili TL ara\u00e7lar tekrar yabanc\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n

Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikli \u015fart ekonominin cari dengeye yakla\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r. Cari dengeye yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, yabanc\u0131 sermaye ihtiyac\u0131 azal\u0131r, kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 kalkar, TL \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 hale gelir. Kurlardaki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6viz baz\u0131ndaki kay\u0131p ihtimali d\u00fc\u015fer. Ana ak\u0131m politikada, cari dengeye talep k\u0131s\u0131larak ve faiz y\u00fckseltilerek yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Reel faizlerdeki art\u0131\u015f, ancak ekonomiyi so\u011futabildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde cari dengeye hizmet eder. Ekonomi cari dengeden uzakken, y\u00fcksek reel faiz tek ba\u015f\u0131na yabanc\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politikada, faiz ve faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ara\u00e7larla ekonomi so\u011futulur. Ancak, uzun vadeli para politikas\u0131 stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, ekonominin resesyona girmesine izin verilmez. Il\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda, cari dengeye yakla\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n azami \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde reel kura yans\u0131mas\u0131 sa\u011flan\u0131r. Bu ama\u00e7la, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcr, ani kur ataklar\u0131na izin verilmez. Hibrit politikada, sadece cari dengeye yakla\u015farak TL\u2019ye istikrar kazand\u0131r\u0131lmaz. Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi ile TL istikrar\u0131 do\u011frudan hedeflenir. \u0130lk g\u00fcnden itibaren, kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zamana e\u015fit yay\u0131l\u0131r. Ani kur ataklar\u0131na izin verilmez. TL\u2019nin en ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren istikrar kazanmas\u0131, yabanc\u0131 sermayenin yurda giri\u015fini de \u00f6ne \u00e7eker.<\/p>\n

Hibrit politika, enflasyonu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmede, yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fini yard\u0131mc\u0131 unsur olarak kabul eder. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi ile bir miktar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilmesi, ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine hizmet eder. Bununla birlikte, oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde TL\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine m\u00fcsaade edilmez. Oynakl\u0131k hedefi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclerek, TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenme yava\u015flat\u0131l\u0131r. Enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7ip, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi ile sa\u011flan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k hedeflemesinin ba\u015far\u0131 ile uygulanabilmesi i\u00e7in faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede etkili ara\u00e7lara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulur. D\u00f6viz talebi ancak d\u00f6viz cinsinden kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilmektedir. Yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fleri k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 iken d\u00f6viz talebi ancak i\u00e7eride d\u00f6viz arz\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131larak kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir. D\u00f6viz i\u00e7eride bir taraf\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyona d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle bas\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2018 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar bankalar d\u00f6viz kredileri verdiklerinde d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 ihra\u00e7 ediyordu. \u0130\u00e7eride d\u00f6viz arz\u0131 firmalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyona ge\u00e7meleriyle art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yordu. 2018 Nisan\u2019\u0131nda d\u00f6viz geliri olmayan firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz kredisi \u00e7ekmeleri k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131. 2018 ve sonras\u0131ndaki kur \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi ile d\u00f6viz kredileri geriledi. Firmalar d\u00f6viz kredilerini d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 ile geri \u00f6dedik\u00e7e, d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 azald\u0131. Artan d\u00f6viz talebi bu defa, kamu taraf\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyona d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Hazine bankalara eurobond satarak, TCMB swapla bankalardan elde etti\u011fi d\u00f6vizleri bankalara satarak d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Her ne kadar TL cinsi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 olsa da KKM de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz pozisyonunu art\u0131rarak d\u00f6viz talebini kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131. Ancak, TL cinsi bir ara\u00e7 olmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz talebinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde KKM faizinin de y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ana ak\u0131m politika<\/strong>, faiz y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n her iki taraf\u0131nda kur bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletici geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcr. Pasifte, d\u00f6viz mevduattan faizi y\u00fckselen TL mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015fler artar. Aktifte ise, firmalar faizi y\u00fckselen TL krediler yerine d\u00f6viz kredilerini tercih etmeye ba\u015flar. Firmalar, d\u00f6viz kredisi \u00e7ekerek a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyona ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e, bankalar yeni d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 ihra\u00e7 eder. D\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131na talep d\u00fc\u015ferken d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 arz\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Ana ak\u0131m politika<\/strong> banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n pasifinde d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131ndan TL mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015fi hedeflerken, aktifte TL krediden d\u00f6viz kredisine ge\u00e7i\u015f bilin\u00e7li bir politika tercihi de\u011fildir. Hibrit politikada, reel faiz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuldu\u011fu i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131ndan TL mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015f ilk etapta yava\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bu esnada d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacakt\u0131r. Bu ama\u00e7la, d\u00f6viz kredileri te\u015fvik edilir. TL kredilerin tabi oldu\u011fu k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131ndan YP krediler muaf tutulur. D\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 talebi d\u00fc\u015fene kadar, d\u00f6viz kredilerinde sa\u011flanacak art\u0131\u015fla d\u00f6viz talebi kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz kredilerinin aktif bir kur politikas\u0131 arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 ani kur ataklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7er. 2021 son \u00e7eyre\u011finde, i\u00e7eride yerle\u015fiklerin kar\u015f\u0131lanamayan d\u00f6viz talebi d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n 8 TL\u2019den 18 TL\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckselmesine neden oldu. \u0130\u00e7eride d\u00f6viz kredisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 arz\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz talebi kar\u015f\u0131lanabilecektir. Her \u015feye ra\u011fmen ani bir kur ata\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde, d\u00f6viz geliri olan firmalar d\u00f6viz kredisi \u00e7ekebildikleri i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz kredilerini rahatl\u0131kla \u00f6deyebilecektir.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz kredisi ile d\u00f6viz bas\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki tek engel \u00fclkenin rezervlerinin kritik s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesidir. D\u0131\u015f finansman yoklu\u011funda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n rezervlerden finanse edilmesi rezervleri eritir. Rezervler \u00fclkenin likit d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131d\u0131r. Likit varl\u0131klar, d\u00f6vizin bir bankadan bir di\u011ferine aktar\u0131m\u0131nda kullan\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde veya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm dolar transferleri iki ABD bankas\u0131ndaki hesaplar veya bir ABD bankas\u0131ndaki iki hesap aras\u0131nda yap\u0131l\u0131r. ABD banka hesaplar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131na ve bu mevduatlara kolayl\u0131kla d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilen varl\u0131klara likit varl\u0131klar denir.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir bankadan bir di\u011ferine aktar\u0131lmas\u0131nda ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan likit varl\u0131k tutar\u0131 d\u00f6vize endeksli vadesiz TL mevduat hesaplar\u0131 te\u015fvik edilerek azalt\u0131labilir. D\u00f6vize endeksli vadesiz TL mevduata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 d\u00f6viz pozisyonunu art\u0131rma \u00f6zelliklerini kaybetmezken, likit d\u00f6viz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 azalt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6vize endeksli hesaplardan ba\u015fka hesaplara d\u00f6viz transferi yap\u0131lmaz. D\u00f6vize endeksli hesaplar\u0131n kur riski de d\u00f6viz hesaplar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi bankalara aittir. D\u00f6vize endeksli vadesiz mevduat ayn\u0131 d\u00f6viz pozisyonu etkisi olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131ndan, bankan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kur riski de\u011fi\u015fmez.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u00e7eride bas\u0131lan d\u00f6viz, yabanc\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 kur ataklar\u0131n\u0131n yumu\u015fat\u0131lmas\u0131nda da kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminde, yabanc\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyona d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle bas\u0131lan d\u00f6vizle, yerlinin a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyona d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle bas\u0131lan d\u00f6viz ay\u0131rt edilmez. Yabanc\u0131, d\u00f6vizini sat\u0131p TL sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, likidite kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz bas\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Yerli firman\u0131n \u00e7ekti\u011fi d\u00f6viz kredisi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bas\u0131lan d\u00f6vizle yurda likidite giri\u015fi olmaz. Ancak, her iki d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131n\u0131n bir bankadan bir ba\u015fka bankaya aktar\u0131lmas\u0131nda likidite ihtiyac\u0131 olu\u015fur. T\u00fcm mevduatlar ayn\u0131 anda bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminden \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in likidite ihtiyac\u0131 mevduat\u0131n \u00e7ok az bir k\u0131sm\u0131 kadard\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k normal zamanlarda kapal\u0131 bir sistem oldu\u011fundan likidite ihtiyac\u0131, ihra\u00e7 edilen mevduata g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha azd\u0131r. Para bir bankadan bir ba\u015fka bankaya transfer olur. Likiditenin sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bankalardan nakit \u00e7ekimi ile olabilir. Nakit miktar\u0131 krizler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yatay dalgal\u0131 seyreder. G\u00fcn sonunda, bir banka likidite kaybettiyse, bir ba\u015fka banka likidite kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Likidite kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayan banka likiditesi artan bankadan likidite bor\u00e7lan\u0131r. D\u00f6viz \u00f6zelinde bir ba\u015fka sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kayna\u011f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n yoklu\u011funda, ekonomi cari a\u00e7\u0131k kadar d\u00f6viz likiditesi kaybeder. \u0130\u00e7eride rezervler kritik bir s\u0131n\u0131ra ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz kredisi verilerek d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 ihra\u00e7 etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 ortadan kalkar.<\/p>\n

Likidite krizlerine kar\u015f\u0131, finans sistemini diren\u00e7li k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n yerine d\u00f6vize endeksli TL mevduatlar\u0131n te\u015fvik edilmesi elzemdir. Bir banka h\u00fccumunda, bankalar TCMB\u2019den temin edecekleri TL ile d\u00f6vize endeksli TL mevduatlar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u0131sa vadede temin edilebilecek d\u00f6viz likiditesi \u00fclke rezervleri ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Rezervlerin kritik s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir durumda ya\u015fanabilecek bir banka h\u00fccumunda, d\u00f6viz likiditesi talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamakta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7ekilece\u011fi a\u015fikard\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ana ak\u0131m politika Enflasyon Ana ak\u0131m politika, enflasyonu negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vererek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Negatif \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, fiili has\u0131la potansiyel has\u0131lan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda verilir. Ekonomi potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde enflasyon mevcut seviyesini korur. Bu durumda, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fmaz. Potansiyelin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fur, enflasyon y\u00fckselir. Potansiyelin alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fur, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4814,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,49,47],"tags":[248,230,232],"class_list":{"0":"post-4813","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-jeopolitik-risk-analizi","9":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","10":"tag-gsyih","11":"tag-ortodoks-iktisat","12":"tag-turkiye-ekonomisi"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4814,"alt_text":"Ana Ak\u0131m Politika","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1337,"height":878,"file":"2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash.jpg","filesize":343191,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-300x197.jpg","width":300,"height":197,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":13827,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-300x197.jpg"},"large":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-1024x672.jpg","width":1024,"height":672,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":77573,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-1024x672.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8476,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-768x504.jpg","width":768,"height":504,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":48108,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-768x504.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-150x99.jpg","width":150,"height":99,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":6743,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-150x99.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-450x296.jpg","width":450,"height":296,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":23251,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-450x296.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-1200x788.jpg","width":1200,"height":788,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":102765,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-1200x788.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-768x504.jpg","width":768,"height":504,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":48108,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash-768x504.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":4813,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/mick-haupt-qfrtUw4NBPQ-unsplash.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4813"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5009,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4813\/revisions\/5009"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}