{"id":4852,"date":"2023-10-05T17:38:09","date_gmt":"2023-10-05T14:38:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4852"},"modified":"2025-08-18T18:24:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T15:24:26","slug":"omur-boyu-gelir-hipotezi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/omur-boyu-gelir-hipotezi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6m\u00fcr Boyu Gelir Hipotezi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi, Amerikal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131 F. Modigliani<\/a> liderli\u011finde 1950\u2019li y\u0131llarda geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. \u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezinin hareket noktas\u0131, Fisher\u2019in zamanlar aras\u0131 t\u00fcketim analizidir. \u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezine g\u00f6re, bir ekonomide t d\u00f6nemdeki t\u00fcketim, t\u00fcketicilerin t d\u00f6neminde elde ettikleri gelire de\u011fil, \u00f6m\u00fcr boyunca elde etmeyi bekledikleri gelire ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc t\u00fcketim, gelirin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferine (PVt) ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ct = k(PVt)<\/p>\n

Bu denklemdeki k terimi, ki\u015filerin gelirinin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011feri \u00fczerinden t\u00fcketime ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131 temsil eder.<\/p>\n

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezine g\u00f6re, ki\u015filer hayatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde emeklilik d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha fazla gelir elde ederler. Bu y\u00fczden ki\u015filer t\u00fcketim d\u00fczle\u015fmesi yapmak ( gelirlerinde \u00f6m\u00fcrleri boyunca meydana gelen dalgalanman\u0131n t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinde etkisini gidermek ) i\u00e7in, hayatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde pozitif tasarruf yaparlar ve bu tasarrufla emeklilik d\u00f6neminde t\u00fcketimin geliri a\u015fan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 finanse ederler. Bu durum a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir;<\/p>\n

\"\u00d6m\u00fcr<\/p>\n

Ki\u015finin tam t\u00fcketim d\u00fczle\u015ftirmesi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ( \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ) ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda herhangi bir servete sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kabul edildi\u011fi grafikte, ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde ( 25 \u2013 60 ya\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ) her y\u0131l 0Y kadar gelir elde eder ve bu gelirin her y\u0131l 0C kadar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketir, kalan CY kadar\u0131n\u0131 ise tasarruf eder. B\u00f6ylece ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde 0C x 35 = 0CBR alan\u0131 kadar t\u00fcketim, CY x 35 = CYAB alan\u0131 kadar da tasarruf yapar. Ki\u015finin 60 ya\u015f\u0131nda emekli olunca emekli geliri elde etmedi\u011fi, emeklilik d\u00f6neminde gelirinin s\u0131f\u0131r oldu\u011fu basitle\u015ftirici varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 grafikte, ki\u015fi emeklilik d\u00f6neminde ( 60 \u2013 75 ya\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ) her y\u0131l 0C kadar t\u00fcketim ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da 0C = RB kadar negatif tasarruf yapar. Ki\u015finin emeklilik d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi toplam negatif tasarruf, RB x 15 = RBDT alan\u0131 kadard\u0131r. Bu alan, ki\u015fi 75 ya\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde miras b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi pozitif tasarrufu temsil eden CYAB alan\u0131na e\u015fittir. Ki\u015finin \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken her y\u0131l yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tasarruflardan olu\u015fan ve ki\u015fi 60 ya\u015f\u0131nda iken maksimum olan servetin, ki\u015fi 75 ya\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde s\u0131f\u0131r olmas\u0131 da bu hususu, pozitif tasarrufun negatif tasarrufa e\u015fit oldu\u011funu yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi hakk\u0131nda bu anlat\u0131lanlar matematiksel olarak da ifade edilebilir. Ki\u015finin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma hayat\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda sahip oldu\u011fu servet W, \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 her y\u0131l elde etti\u011fi gelir Y, \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l say\u0131s\u0131 R ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonraki ya\u015fam s\u00fcresi T olarak g\u00f6sterilirse, tam t\u00fcketim d\u00fczle\u015ftirmesi yapan (\u00f6m\u00fcr boyu ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 yapan ) bir ki\u015finin her y\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi t\u00fcketim a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekilde g\u00f6sterilir;<\/p>\n

\"Gelir<\/p>\n

Faiz haddinin s\u0131f\u0131r oldu\u011funun ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da tasarruflardan faiz geliri elde edilmedi\u011fi varsay\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezinin \u00f6nemli bir sonucu vard\u0131r. Bunlardan t\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olan\u0131, ortalama t\u00fcketim itibariyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibi g\u00f6sterilir;<\/p>\n

\"Gelir<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci denklemde k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde servetin sabit oldu\u011fu hesaba kat\u0131larak de\u011ferlendirilirse, gelir art\u0131nca k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde Wt\/Yt<\/em><\/strong> de\u011fi\u015fkeninin de\u011feri ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Ct\/Yt<\/em><\/strong> ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi de\u011fi\u015fkeninin de\u011feri, mutlak gelir hipotezinde<\/a> ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi d\u00fc\u015fer. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k uzun d\u00f6nemde servet sabit de\u011fildir, gelir art\u0131nca uzun d\u00f6nemde servet de artar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da gelir art\u0131nca uzun d\u00f6nemde Wt\/Yt<\/em><\/strong> de\u011fi\u015fkeninin de\u011feri ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Ct\/Yt <\/em><\/strong>ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi de\u011fi\u015fkeninin de\u011feri de\u011fi\u015fmez.<\/p>\n

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi, yaln\u0131zca bireysel t\u00fcketim ve tasarruf davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda makroekonomik d\u00fczeyde t\u00fcketim fonksiyonunun anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu model, \u00f6zellikle mutlak gelir hipotezinin yetersizliklerini ortaya koymu\u015f ve Keynesyen \u00e7er\u00e7evenin \u00f6tesinde daha ileri bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Keynesyen mutlak gelir hipotezinde t\u00fcketim, yaln\u0131zca mevcut gelirin bir fonksiyonu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi t\u00fcketimin gelece\u011fe dair beklentilere ve bireylerin t\u00fcm ya\u015famlar\u0131 boyunca elde etmeyi umduklar\u0131 toplam gelire dayal\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgular. B\u00f6ylece, bireylerin t\u00fcketim kararlar\u0131n\u0131n, sadece cari gelirle de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda gelecekteki gelir ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerle \u015fekillendi\u011fi kabul edilir.<\/p>\n

Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri, ge\u00e7ici gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkiler yaratmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir birey piyango kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya beklenmedik bir \u015fekilde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ek bir gelir elde etti\u011finde, bu gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bireyin t\u00fcketiminde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fim yaratmaz. T\u00fcketici, bu t\u00fcr ge\u00e7ici gelirleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tasarruf etmeyi tercih eder. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, maa\u015f\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funda veya uzun vadeli gelirinde s\u00fcrekli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bekledi\u011finde, t\u00fcketiminde daha belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f meydana gelir. Bu durum, gelir \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n niteli\u011fine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketim davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi ayn\u0131 zamanda maliye politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar sunmaktad\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici vergi indirimleri ya da k\u0131sa vadeli gelir transferleri, t\u00fcketimde beklenilen kadar art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7maz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bireyler bu t\u00fcr uygulamalar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmezler ve t\u00fcketimlerini \u00e7ok fazla de\u011fi\u015ftirmezler. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, uzun vadeli vergi politikalar\u0131 veya sosyal g\u00fcvenlik d\u00fczenlemeleri gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 gelir etkileri yaratan politikalar, t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etki yarat\u0131r. Bu sonu\u00e7, \u00f6zellikle 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezine geni\u015f bir ilgi duyulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Hipotezin bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli boyutu, bireylerin ya\u015fam d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc boyunca tasarruf davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde pozitif tasarruf yapan bireyler, emeklilik d\u00f6neminde bu birikimlerini harcayarak negatif tasarruf yaparlar. B\u00f6ylece bireylerin toplam tasarruf davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, \u00fclke ekonomisinin yat\u0131r\u0131m ve sermaye birikim s\u00fcre\u00e7leri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir rol oynar. Nitekim geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bireylerin \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekillenen tasarruf kararlar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonucudur.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, hipotezin baz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 da vard\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ek hayatta bireyler her zaman rasyonel davranmayabilir veya gelecekteki gelirlerini do\u011fru tahmin edemeyebilirler. Ayr\u0131ca, kredi k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve finansal piyasalar\u0131n eksiklikleri bireylerin ya\u015famlar\u0131 boyunca t\u00fcketimlerini tam anlam\u0131yla d\u00fczle\u015ftirmelerine engel olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, gen\u00e7 ya\u015flarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelire sahip bireyler, gelecekte gelirlerinin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilseler bile yeterli bor\u00e7lanma imk\u00e2n\u0131na sahip olmad\u0131klar\u0131nda t\u00fcketimlerini istedikleri d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131karamazlar. Bu durum, hipotezin pratikte her birey i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi t\u00fcketim ve tasarruf teorileri i\u00e7erisinde devrim niteli\u011finde bir katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bireylerin sadece bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gelirlerine bakarak t\u00fcketim kararlar\u0131 ald\u0131klar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini a\u015farak, t\u00fcketim davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck bir planlama s\u00fcreciyle \u015fekillendi\u011fini vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde makroekonomik politikalar\u0131n tasar\u0131m\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle maliye ve sosyal g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bireylerin uzun d\u00f6nemli gelir beklentilerini nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi dikkatle incelenmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi, hem teorik hem de pratik d\u00fczeyde ekonomistlerin ba\u015fvurdu\u011fu temel modellerden biri olmaya devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezi, Amerikal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131 F. Modigliani liderli\u011finde 1950\u2019li y\u0131llarda geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. \u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezinin hareket noktas\u0131, Fisher\u2019in zamanlar aras\u0131 t\u00fcketim analizidir. \u00d6m\u00fcr boyu gelir hipotezine g\u00f6re, bir ekonomide t d\u00f6nemdeki t\u00fcketim, t\u00fcketicilerin t d\u00f6neminde elde ettikleri gelire de\u011fil, \u00f6m\u00fcr boyunca elde etmeyi bekledikleri gelire ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc t\u00fcketim, gelirin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferine (PVt) ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Ct<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":4853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[453,301],"class_list":{"0":"post-4852","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-franco-modigliani","10":"tag-gelir"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4853,"alt_text":"\u00d6m\u00fcr Boyu Gelir Teorisi","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":479,"height":299,"file":"2023\/10\/Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi.jpg","filesize":16319,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-300x187.jpg","width":300,"height":187,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":4989,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-300x187.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":3071,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-150x150.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-150x94.jpg","width":150,"height":94,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":2013,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-150x94.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-450x281.jpg","width":450,"height":281,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8648,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi-450x281.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4852,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Omur-Boyu-Gelir-Hipotezi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4852"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5570,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4852\/revisions\/5570"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}