{"id":4878,"date":"2023-10-09T10:47:27","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T07:47:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4878"},"modified":"2025-08-18T17:50:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T14:50:13","slug":"reel-iktisadi-dalgalanma-modeli-ve-robinson-cruose-ekonomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/reel-iktisadi-dalgalanma-modeli-ve-robinson-cruose-ekonomisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Reel \u0130ktisadi Dalgalanma Modeli ve Robinson Cruose Ekonomisi"},"content":{"rendered":"

1980\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131nda Amerikal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar Edward Prescott ve Finn Kydland \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde geli\u015ftirilen reel iktisadi dalgalanma modelinde belirli varsay\u0131mlar vard\u0131: Fiyatlar esnektir, piyasalar s\u00fcrekli temizlenir, karar birimleri rasyoneldir, beklenen fiyat ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyata e\u015fittir. Bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n ayn\u0131 zamanda yeni klasik modeli tan\u0131mlayan varsay\u0131mlar oldu\u011fu hesaba kat\u0131l\u0131rsa, reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar<\/a> modelinin asl\u0131nda yeni klasik model \u00fczerine in\u015fa edildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n

Ancak reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar modeli ile yeni klasik model aras\u0131nda, has\u0131la ve istihdam d\u00fczeyindeki dalgalanman\u0131n nedeni toplam talepteki \u00f6nceden a\u00e7\u0131klanmayan s\u00fcrpriz olan de\u011fi\u015fikliklerdir. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6rne\u011fin geni\u015fletici bir parasal s\u00fcrpriz, istihdam ve has\u0131la d\u00fczeyinin \u00f6nce artmas\u0131na daha sonra azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k reel devri dalgalanmalar modelinde iktisadi dalgalanman\u0131n nedeni \u00fcretim teknolojisinde veya verimlilikte meydana gelen tesad\u00fcfi – rassal de\u011fi\u015fikliklerdir. Reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar modelinde iktisadi dalgalanman\u0131n nedeni parasal \u015foklar de\u011fil, teknoloji – verimlilik \u015foklar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar modelinde teknoloji – verimlilik \u015foku kavram\u0131 hem olumlu hem olumsuz \u015foklar\u0131 kapsayan bir bi\u00e7imde alg\u0131lan\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda olumlu teknoloji \u015foku, eme\u011fin ve sermayenin niteli\u011finin de\u011fi\u015fmesi – yeni mallar\u0131n \u00fcretilmesi ve yeni \u00fcretim tekniklerinin uygulanmas\u0131 sonucu verimlili\u011fin artmas\u0131 bi\u00e7iminde tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olumsuz teknoloji \u015fokunun, kurakl\u0131k – sel ve tayfun gibi tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcnleri olumsuz etkileyen do\u011fal olaylardan – petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015flardan – sava\u015f ve ayaklanma gibi siyasi huzursuzluklardan – tar\u0131m ve sanayi kesimlerinde \u00fcretimin azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an depremlerden ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kota uygulamas\u0131 gibi ekonominin etkinli\u011fini azaltan d\u00fczenlemelere ba\u015fvurmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul edilir.<\/p>\n

Reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar modelinde iktisadi dalgalanma iki unsurun \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir olgudur: \u0130tici g\u00fc\u00e7 ve yayma mekanizmas\u0131. \u0130tici g\u00fc\u00e7, \u00fcretim teknolojisinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ve has\u0131lan\u0131n trend de\u011ferinden sapmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an de\u011fi\u015fikliktir. Yayma mekanizmas\u0131 ise, itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn etkisinin zamana nas\u0131l yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece has\u0131ladaki sapman\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/p>\n

Reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar modelinin i\u015fleyi\u015fi, \u00f6nce \u0131ss\u0131z bir adada tek ba\u015f\u0131na ya\u015fayan Robinson Crusoe<\/a> basit \u00f6rne\u011fi ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Bu ba\u011flamda Robinson \u2018un her g\u00fcn zaman\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dinlemeye – y\u00fczmeye, kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ise \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya – bal\u0131k avlamaya ve bal\u0131k avlamakta kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 sepetleri \u00f6rmeye tahsis etti\u011fini varsayal\u0131m. Bu durumda Robinson i\u00e7in bal\u0131k t\u00fcketimi, sepet ise yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 temsil eder. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Cruose her g\u00fcn zaman\u0131n\u0131 dinlenme, t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m aras\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131t\u0131r. Robinson adadaki zaman\u0131n\u0131 dinlenme, t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m aras\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131t\u0131rken, do\u011fan\u0131n kendisine getirdi\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar alt\u0131nda en uygun bi\u00e7imde davran\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi Robinson \u2018un ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 adan\u0131n yan\u0131ndan bir pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bal\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fini kabul edelim. \u00dcretim teknolojisindeki iyile\u015fmeyi temsil eden bu yeni durum, Robinson \u2018un verimlili\u011fini artt\u0131r\u0131r – Robinson \u2018a cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne k\u0131yasla pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ayn\u0131 miktardaki sepetle daha fazla bal\u0131k yakalama imkan\u0131 sunar. Robinson bu durum kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc bal\u0131k avlamaya daha fazla zaman, dinlenmeye ise daha az zaman tahsis eder. B\u00f6ylece Robinson cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne k\u0131yasla pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ayn\u0131 miktardaki sepetle daha fazla bal\u0131k yakalar. Pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc t\u00fcketimden ve gelecekteki t\u00fcketimden elde etti\u011fi fayday\u0131 maksimize etmeyi ama\u00e7layan Robinson, pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bal\u0131klar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yer, geri kalan\u0131n\u0131 ise gelecekte yemek \u00fczere saklar yani tasarruf eder.<\/p>\n

Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc deniz kenar\u0131na gitti\u011finde bal\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fc ge\u00e7i\u015finin sona erdi\u011fini \u2013 bal\u0131k avlama imkan\u0131n\u0131n normal d\u00fczeyine geri geldi\u011fini g\u00f6re Robinson, pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fakat yemedi\u011fi yani tasarruf etti\u011fi bal\u0131klar\u0131 pazartesi yer ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da pazar g\u00fcn\u00fcne k\u0131yasla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya tahsis etti\u011fi zaman\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 sepet \u00f6rmeye tahsis eder yani yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece Robinson \u2018un sahip oldu\u011fu sepet say\u0131s\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibariyle artm\u0131\u015f olur. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc sahip oldu\u011fu sepet say\u0131s\u0131 artan Robinson Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren bal\u0131k avlamaya eskisi kadar zaman tahsis ederek art\u0131k normal ko\u015fullarda daha fazla bal\u0131k avlar.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetlemek gerekirse bug\u00fcnk\u00fc t\u00fcketimden ve yar\u0131nki t\u00fcketimden elde etti\u011fi fayday\u0131 maksimize etmeyi ama\u00e7layan Robinson \u2018un pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bal\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fcne, cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne k\u0131yasla pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc zaman\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bal\u0131k avlamaya, daha az k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dinlenmeye tahsis ederek tepki g\u00f6stermesi sonucu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sermaye birikimi, \u00fcretim teknolojisindeki de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin avlanan bal\u0131k say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini \u2013 cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcndeki d\u00fczeye d\u00fc\u015fmemesini sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar (RID) modeli, modern makroekonomi i\u00e7erisinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir paradigma de\u011fi\u015fimini temsil etmi\u015ftir. Keynesyen yakla\u015f\u0131mlarda dalgalanmalar\u0131n temel nedeni toplam talep yetersizlikleri ve para politikas\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131 iken, RID yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131n as\u0131l kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretim taraf\u0131nda aramaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle, model esas itibariyle \u201creel \u015foklar\u201d\u0131n yani teknoloji ve verimlilik de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin ekonomide dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunur. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, i\u015f \u00e7evrimlerinin rasyonel davranan bireylerin optimal tepkileriyle uyumlu oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek, dalgalanmalar\u0131n \u201cirrasyonel\u201d ya da \u201canormal\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, aksine ekonomik sistemin do\u011fal i\u015fleyi\u015finin bir sonucu oldu\u011funu iddia eder.<\/p>\n

RID modeli ayn\u0131 zamanda politika tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkiler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Modelin temel varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, fiyatlar esnek ve piyasalar s\u00fcrekli temizlenir; yani arz ve talep dengesi her zaman sa\u011flan\u0131r. Bu nedenle geni\u015fletici maliye ya da para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadede etkinli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Zira bireyler rasyonel beklentilere sahip oldu\u011fundan, politika hamlelerini \u00f6nceden \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 buna g\u00f6re ayarlarlar. B\u00f6ylece klasik dikotomiye uygun olarak, reel de\u011fi\u015fkenler reel \u015foklarla, nominal de\u011fi\u015fkenler ise parasal unsurlarla belirlenir.<\/p>\n

RID modelinin en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan y\u00f6nlerinden biri, ekonomik dalgalanmalar\u0131n olumsuz etkilerini \u201cverimli\u201d bir tepkinin sonucu olarak g\u00f6stermesidir. \u0130\u015fsizlik bile modelde g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olarak yorumlan\u0131r: bireyler olumsuz bir \u015fok kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla dinlenmeyi se\u00e7tiklerinde istihdam d\u00fc\u015fer. Bu yorum Keynesyen i\u015fsizlik kavram\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in yo\u011fun ele\u015ftiriler alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yine de RID modeli, \u00f6zellikle 1980\u2019ler ve sonras\u0131nda modern makroekonomi literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde, rasyonel beklentiler ve mikro temellere dayal\u0131 i\u015f \u00e7evrimi teorilerinin geli\u015fiminde kritik bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1980\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131nda Amerikal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar Edward Prescott ve Finn Kydland \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde geli\u015ftirilen reel iktisadi dalgalanma modelinde belirli varsay\u0131mlar vard\u0131: Fiyatlar esnektir, piyasalar s\u00fcrekli temizlenir, karar birimleri rasyoneldir, beklenen fiyat ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyata e\u015fittir. Bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n ayn\u0131 zamanda yeni klasik modeli tan\u0131mlayan varsay\u0131mlar oldu\u011fu hesaba kat\u0131l\u0131rsa, reel iktisadi dalgalanmalar modelinin asl\u0131nda yeni klasik model \u00fczerine in\u015fa edildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":4880,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[459,460,403],"class_list":{"0":"post-4878","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-edward-prescott","10":"tag-finn-kydland","11":"tag-iktisadi-donguler"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4880,"alt_text":"\u0130ktisadi Dalgalanmalar","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1200,"height":835,"file":"2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi.jpg","filesize":332580,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-300x209.jpg","width":300,"height":209,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":17768,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-300x209.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-1024x713.jpg","width":1024,"height":713,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":131334,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-1024x713.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":7370,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-768x534.jpg","width":768,"height":534,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":82267,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-768x534.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-150x104.jpg","width":150,"height":104,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5600,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-150x104.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-450x313.jpg","width":450,"height":313,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":34023,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-450x313.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-768x534.jpg","width":768,"height":534,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":82267,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi-768x534.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":null,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Robinson-Crusoe-Ekonomisi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4878"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5566,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4878\/revisions\/5566"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4880"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}