{"id":4931,"date":"2023-10-27T10:30:39","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T07:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4931"},"modified":"2025-08-14T19:48:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T16:48:00","slug":"taylor-kurali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/taylor-kurali\/","title":{"rendered":"Taylor Kural\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Taylor kural\u0131, Amerikal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131 John B. Taylor taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde merkez bankas\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131<\/a> iktisadi ortamdaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklere genellikle k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini – gecelik faiz haddini ( i ) de\u011fi\u015ftirerek tepki g\u00f6sterirler. Amerikal\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131 John B. Taylor, Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ( FED ) 1987 – 1992 d\u00f6nemi politika uygulamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin verileri inceleyerek, FED politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iktisadi ortamdaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklere k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddi \u00fczerinden nas\u0131l tepki g\u00f6sterdiklerini a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ve Taylor Kural\u0131 diye isimlendirilen bir para politikas\u0131 geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Taylor kural\u0131na g\u00f6re merkez bankas\u0131<\/a> politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 reel GDP\u00a0 Y\u00a0 do\u011fal GDP \u2018den Y(n) ve fiili enflasyon haddi (\u03c0) hedeflenen enflasyon haddinden (\u03c0*) b\u00fcy\u00fck iken, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini y\u00fckseltir. Taylor kural\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki denklem ile ifade edilir;<\/p>\n

\"Taylor<\/p>\n

Taylor kural\u0131 denkleminde yer alan i k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini, Y fiili reel GDP\u2019yi Y(n) do\u011fal GDP\u2019yi, \u00a0fiili enflasyon haddini, \u03c0* hedeflenen enflasyon haddini ve r k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem reel faiz haddini temsil eder. Enflasyon haddi de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n nominal faiz haddinde ne kadar de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtir.<\/p>\n

Robert Taylor ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in uzun d\u00f6nem ortalama faiz haddini r = %2, \u03b2 ve \u03b8 katsay\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n her ikisini ise 0.5 olarak hesaplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden de Taylor kural\u0131n\u0131 ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibi ifade etmi\u015ftir;<\/p>\n

\"Taylor<\/p>\n

Taylor kural\u0131 denklemine g\u00f6re hedeflenen enflasyon haddinin \u00f6rne\u011fin %2 oldu\u011fu (\u03c0* = 2) ve has\u0131lan\u0131n da do\u011fal has\u0131laya e\u015fit oldu\u011fu ( y = 0 ) bir durumda, FED yetkilileri enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in (\u03c0 = \u03c0* = %2) k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini %4 olarak belirler;<\/p>\n

\"\u0130ktisatta<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k hedeflenen enflasyon haddinin yine % 2 oldu\u011fu (\u03c0* = 2) ve has\u0131lan\u0131n da do\u011fal has\u0131ladan y\u00fczde bir b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu ( y = 1)bir durumda, fiili enflasyon haddi %5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyorsa (\u03c0 = 5) FED yetkilileri bu defa k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini y\u00fczde dokuz olarak belirler;<\/p>\n

\"Taylor<\/p>\n

Robert Taylor\u2019un ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131daki denklem daha genel bir bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirilirse, Taylor\u2019a g\u00f6re enflasyon haddi (\u03c0) %1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Fed k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini % 1.5 artt\u0131r\u0131r: ( 1+ 0.5) \u03c0 = ( 1 + 0.5 )1 = 1.5. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k reel has\u0131la do\u011fal has\u0131lay\u0131 % 1 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda FED k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini % 0.5 artt\u0131r\u0131r: 0.5 x y = ( 0.5 ) x 1 = 0.5. Taylor\u2019a g\u00f6re bu analiz, FED\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n operasyonel hedeflerinden biri olan k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem ( gecelik ) nominal faiz haddine ili\u015fkin olarak izledi\u011fi politikay\u0131 anlaml\u0131 d\u00fczeyde yans\u0131t\u0131r. Taylor\u2019un bu de\u011ferlendirmesi, Taylor kural\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7erli\u011fini test eden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda ampirik olarak teyit edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon haddi (\u03c0) % 1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda FED\u2019in k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini % 1 \u2018den fazla artt\u0131rmas\u0131na Taylor kural\u0131 denir. Enflasyon haddi % 1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda FED\u2019in k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem nominal faiz haddini ( 1 + \u03b8 ) \u03c0 kadar ( ABD i\u00e7in % 1.5 kadar ) artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Taylor kural\u0131, Taylor prensibine otomatik olarak uyar. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Taylor kural\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan istikrar sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, Taylor prensibidir.<\/p>\n

Taylor kural\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sistematik bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesini sa\u011flayan en \u00f6nemli ara\u00e7lardan biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Para politikas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle 1970\u2019li y\u0131llarda ya\u015fanan stagflasyon deneyimi sonras\u0131nda, keyfi veya tamamen takdir yetkisine dayal\u0131 kararlar\u0131n risklerini ortaya koymu\u015ftur. Bu ba\u011flamda Taylor kural\u0131, para politikas\u0131 yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131na enflasyon ve \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi makroekonomik g\u00f6stergelere ba\u011fl\u0131, daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir karar alma s\u00fcreci sunar.<\/p>\n

1) Taylor Kural\u0131n\u0131n Temel Mant\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong>
Taylor kural\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n nominal faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 iki temel de\u011fi\u015fkene duyarl\u0131 hale getirir:<\/p>\n