{"id":4947,"date":"2023-10-31T09:32:31","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T06:32:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=4947"},"modified":"2025-08-14T19:39:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T16:39:10","slug":"tuketim-bulmacasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/tuketim-bulmacasi\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcketim Bulmacas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131, Genel Teori\u2019nin 1936 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131ndan hemen sonra, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n mutlak gelir hipotezinin<\/a> ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini test eden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar kapsam\u0131nda olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bir kavramd\u0131r. Bu ilk \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalardan baz\u0131lar\u0131nda, konu farkl\u0131 gelir d\u00fczeylerindeki ailelerin t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 baz\u0131nda incelenmi\u015ftir. Yatay kesit analizi denilen aile b\u00fct\u00e7esi verilerine dayal\u0131 bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda, geliri y\u00fcksek olan ailelerin daha fazla t\u00fckettikleri ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da marjinal t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin<\/a> s\u0131f\u0131rdan b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu ( c > 0 )i geliri daha y\u00fcksek olan ailelerin daha fazla tasarruf yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da marjinal t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin birden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011fu ( c < 1 ) ve nihayet geliri daha y\u00fcksek ailelerin gelirlerinin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 tasarruf ettikleri ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da gelir artt\u0131k\u00e7a ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 (Y++, apc–) gibi mutlak gelir hipotezini teyit eden sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Mutlak gelir hipotezinin ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini ara\u015ft\u0131ran ilk \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalardan baz\u0131lar\u0131nda ise, konu Birinci ve \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131nda kalan y\u0131llar\u0131 kapsayan GDP ve C b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri \u2013 k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem GDP ve C b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri baz\u0131nda incelenmi\u015ftir. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nem zaman serileri analizi denilen k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli y\u0131ll\u0131k verilere dayal\u0131 bu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda da, mutlak gelir hipotezini teyit eden sonu\u00e7lar elde edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Simon Kuznets de mutlak gelir hipotezinin ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini ara\u015ft\u0131ran ba\u015fka ampirik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kuznets \u2018in 1946 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ve 1869 y\u0131l\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemi kapsayan uzun d\u00f6nem zaman serileri analizine g\u00f6re, 1869 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra gelirin \u00e7ok ciddi bi\u00e7imde artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi ( C\/Y ) mutlak gelir hipotezinde ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn ve k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem zaman serileri analizinde teyit edildi\u011finin tersine d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015f, sabit kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da 1946 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar mutlak gelir hipotezinin ge\u00e7erlili\u011fi konusunda birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen iki ampirik bulguyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Bu hususa, aile b\u00fct\u00e7esi verilerinin ve k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem zaman serileri analizinin mutlak gelir hipotezinin ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu ( k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde gelir art\u0131nca ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ), uzun s\u00fcreli zaman serileri analizinin ise mutlak gelir hipotezinin tam tersine ge\u00e7ersiz oldu\u011funu ( uzun d\u00f6nemde gelir art\u0131nca ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ) g\u00f6stermesine, t\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131<\/em><\/strong> denir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir;<\/p>\n

\"T\u00fcketim<\/p>\n

Mutlak gelir hipotezinin ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomide, C\/Y oran\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015fer ve ekonominin bu y\u00fczden talep yetersizli\u011fi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131p durgunlu\u011fa girmemesi i\u00e7in, I\/Y de\u011feri veri iken G\/Y de\u011ferinin s\u00fcrekli artmas\u0131 ( G h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n Y reel GDP \u2018den daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ) gerekir.<\/p>\n

\"T\u00fcketim<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da mutlak gelir hipotezi b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomide, I\/Y de\u011feri veri iken G\/Y de\u011ferinin artmamas\u0131 halinde ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa girece\u011fini i\u00e7erir. Bu husus k\u0131saca durgunluk tezi<\/em><\/strong> diye nitelendirilir.<\/p>\n

Mutlak gelir hipotezinin bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olan durgunluk tezi, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n ikinci d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin karamsar analizler yapmalar\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. Bu ba\u011flamda durgunluk tezi ile bati ekonomilerinde sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde h\u0131zla artan h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde azalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 birlikte ele alan baz\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, bat\u0131 ekonomilerinin sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde yeniden durgunlu\u011fa gireceklerini ileri s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015flerdir.<\/p>\n

Ancak sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ( b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ) bat\u0131 ekonomilerinde I\/Y ve G\/Y de\u011ferleri de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi halde beklenilenin – mutlak gelir hipotezinin i\u00e7erdi\u011finin tersine durgunluk ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Zira sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Y gelir artarken C t\u00fcketim de artm\u0131\u015f ve b\u00f6ylece C\/Y oran\u0131 mutlak gelir hipotezinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin tersine d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015ftir. Mutlak gelir hipotezini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lan bu husus, sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde mutlak gelir hipotezine duyulan g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131na ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak mutlak gelir hipotezine alternatif hipotezlerin geli\u015ftirilmesine y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, makroekonomi literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde hem teorik hem de ampirik d\u00fczeyde yeni ara\u015ft\u0131rma alanlar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Keynes\u2019in \u201cmutlak gelir hipotezi\u201d k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem verilerle uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, Kuznets\u2019in uzun d\u00f6nemli verilerden elde etti\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar, t\u00fcketim davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca cari gelirle a\u00e7\u0131klanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. B\u00f6ylece 1950\u2019lerden itibaren farkl\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar ve modeller geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

1) Kal\u0131c\u0131 Gelir Hipotezi (Milton Friedman)<\/strong>
Friedman, t\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 gelir hipotezi\u201dni ortaya koymu\u015ftur. Bu hipoteze g\u00f6re, hanehalklar\u0131 t\u00fcketim kararlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fil, uzun vadede bekledikleri kal\u0131c\u0131 gelir d\u00fczeyine g\u00f6re belirlerler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli gelir dalgalanmalar\u0131 ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filimini etkiler gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, uzun d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketim gelirle birlikte sabit bir oranda hareket eder. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Kuznets\u2019in bulgular\u0131yla uyumlu sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

2) Ya\u015fam Boyu Gelir Hipotezi (Modigliani \u2013 Ando \u2013 Brumberg)<\/strong>
Modigliani ve arkada\u015flar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen ya\u015fam boyu gelir hipotezi ise t\u00fcketim kararlar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gelirle de\u011fil, bireylerin t\u00fcm ya\u015fam d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc boyunca elde edecekleri gelir beklentileriyle \u015fekillendi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrer. Gen\u00e7 bireyler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirle ba\u015flay\u0131p t\u00fcketimlerini bor\u00e7lanma yoluyla finanse eder, orta ya\u015fta gelir artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tasarruf yapar, ya\u015fl\u0131l\u0131kta ise birikimlerini t\u00fcketirler. Bu model, uzun vadede ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir alternatiftir.<\/p>\n

3) Durgunluk Tezinin Ge\u00e7ersizli\u011fi<\/strong>
Mutlak gelir hipotezinin i\u00e7erdi\u011fi durgunluk tezi, sava\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde beklenenin aksine ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Bunun en \u00f6nemli nedeni, hem kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 hem de hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim kararlar\u0131n\u0131 sadece cari gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil, gelecekteki beklentilerine g\u00f6re \u015fekillendirmeleridir. Bu durum, Keynesyen analizin eksikliklerini ve yeni varsay\u0131mlara duyulan ihtiyac\u0131 ortaya koymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

4) Davran\u0131\u015fsal \u0130ktisat Katk\u0131lar\u0131<\/strong>
1970\u2019lerden sonra t\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda psikolojik ve davran\u0131\u015fsal unsurlar da g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015ftir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u201cal\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k olu\u015fturma\u201d teorisine g\u00f6re, hanehalklar\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ula\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 t\u00fcketim d\u00fczeyini korumak ister ve bu durum t\u00fcketim fonksiyonunu gelirden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker. Benzer \u015fekilde, belirsizlik ve ihtiyatl\u0131 tasarruf davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da ortalama t\u00fcketim e\u011filiminin uzun d\u00f6nemde neden sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

5) T\u00fcrkiye ve Di\u011fer Geli\u015fmekte Olan \u00dclkeler Ba\u011flam\u0131<\/strong>
T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde t\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131 farkl\u0131 bir boyut kazan\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon, belirsizlik ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki e\u015fitsizlik, hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim ve tasarruf kararlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiler. \u00d6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa vadede gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca t\u00fcketime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fse de, uzun vadede y\u00fcksek belirsizlik ve tasarruf e\u011filiminin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 t\u00fcketim fonksiyonunu farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bu durum, hem mutlak gelir hipotezinin hem de kal\u0131c\u0131\/ya\u015fam boyu gelir hipotezlerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama g\u00fcc\u00fcne i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7<\/strong>
T\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131, Keynes\u2019in mutlak gelir hipotezinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyan tarihsel bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Friedman\u2019\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 gelir hipotezi ve Modigliani\u2019nin ya\u015fam boyu gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, bu bulmacay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in geli\u015ftirilen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teorik \u00e7er\u00e7evelerdir. Buna ra\u011fmen, belirsizlik, beklentiler ve davran\u0131\u015fsal fakt\u00f6rler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcketim fonksiyonunun \u00e7ok boyutlu bir yap\u0131ya sahip oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn bile makroekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tasar\u0131m\u0131nda t\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan dersler ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini korumaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcketim bulmacas\u0131, Genel Teori\u2019nin 1936 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131ndan hemen sonra, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n mutlak gelir hipotezinin ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini test eden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar kapsam\u0131nda olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bir kavramd\u0131r. Bu ilk \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalardan baz\u0131lar\u0131nda, konu farkl\u0131 gelir d\u00fczeylerindeki ailelerin t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 baz\u0131nda incelenmi\u015ftir. Yatay kesit analizi denilen aile b\u00fct\u00e7esi verilerine dayal\u0131 bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda, geliri y\u00fcksek olan ailelerin daha fazla t\u00fckettikleri ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da marjinal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":4948,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[469,334,445],"class_list":{"0":"post-4947","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-genel-teori","10":"tag-keynesyen-iktisat","11":"tag-tuketim"},"better_featured_image":{"id":4948,"alt_text":"T\u00fcketim Bulmacas\u0131","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":587,"height":356,"file":"2023\/10\/Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi.jpg","filesize":18489,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-300x182.jpg","width":300,"height":182,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":3845,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-300x182.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":1809,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-150x150.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-150x91.jpg","width":150,"height":91,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":1408,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-150x91.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-450x273.jpg","width":450,"height":273,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":7181,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi-450x273.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":4947,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tuketim-Bulmacasi-Grafigi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4947"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4947\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5551,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4947\/revisions\/5551"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}