{"id":5105,"date":"2024-01-26T10:00:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-26T07:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=5105"},"modified":"2025-08-13T17:09:33","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T14:09:33","slug":"sagp-ve-nominal-gsyih-mukayesesinde-cin-ornegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/sagp-ve-nominal-gsyih-mukayesesinde-cin-ornegi\/","title":{"rendered":"SAGP ve Nominal GSY\u0130H Mukayesesinde \u00c7in \u00d6rne\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"

SAGP ve Nominal GSY\u0130H bir \u00fclkenin ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kullan\u0131lan iki ayr\u0131 parametredir ve hangi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn daha isabetli oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00c7in ve ABD aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik mukayeselerde bu tart\u0131\u015fma yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Nominal metoda g\u00f6re ABD ve \u00c7in ekonomisi, ABD’nin \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu bir senaryoda birbirlerine yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, SAGP’a g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde<\/a> \u00c7in ekonomisi, ABD ekonomisinden neredeyse %20 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Peki hangisi do\u011fru ve fark temelde nereden kaynaklan\u0131yor?<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle rakamlara ve bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki farklara bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Nominal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcme g\u00f6re ABD ile \u00c7in ekonomisi aras\u0131ndaki fark 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle %30’un \u00fczerinde ABD’nin lehine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00c7in ekonomisi neredeyse ABD ekonomisinin %70’i b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

\"ABD<\/p>\n

SAGP’a g\u00f6re ise durum tam tersi mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alma paritesine g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltti\u011finizde \u00c7in ekonomisinin, ABD ekonomisinden neredeyse %20 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\"ABD<\/p>\n

Peki fark hangi sebepten kaynaklan\u0131yor ve hangisi do\u011fru? Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkiyi \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in genellikle kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc tespit etmekte kullan\u0131lan bir y\u00f6ntemi Chris Giles Financial Times<\/a>‘taki bir makalesinde kulland\u0131. Bu y\u00f6nteme g\u00f6re bir ekonominin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam enerji miktar\u0131 tespit edilerek, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f resmi toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckle enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131 mukayeseli olarak inceleniyor. Enerji t\u00fcketimi gizlenebilir bir de\u011fi\u015fken de\u011filken, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak gizlenebilir. B\u00f6ylece bu ikisi aras\u0131ndaki anomalileri tespit edersek ger\u00e7ek b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 miktar\u0131n\u0131 kavrayabiliriz. \u00d6rne\u011fin A \u00fclke 100 birim enerji t\u00fcketirken, toplam \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 100 birim olsun, B \u00fclkenin ise 100 birim enerji t\u00fcketimine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f toplam ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 70 birim olsun. \u0130kinci ekonomide kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n

\"\u00c7in<\/p>\n

Enerji \u00fcretimini g\u00f6steren bu grafik olduk\u00e7a beklenmedik. Financial Times’tan al\u0131nan bu veriye g\u00f6re \u00c7in, ABD’nin neredeyse iki kat\u0131 enerji \u00fcretiyor. Di\u011fer taraftan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck i\u00e7in daha isabetli bir g\u00f6sterge olan enerji t\u00fcketiminde fark bu kadar olmasa bile \u00c7in’in enerji t\u00fcketimi ABD’den yakla\u015f\u0131k %15-%20 civar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek durumda ve bu rakam SAGP’a g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmle uyumlu.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyam\u0131zda has\u0131lan\u0131n %50’den fazlasi hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00fcretiliyor. Fiyat farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na yol a\u00e7an da hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc. \u00c7in’de \u00fccretler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu fiyatlar SAGP’e g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltildi\u011finde \u00c7in ABD’nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 hizmeti \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in gerekli elektrik miktar\u0131 da ayn\u0131 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re \u00c7in’de elektrik \u00fcretiminin SAGP’ye g\u00f6re has\u0131la ile uyumlu olmas\u0131 beklenirdi. Yani elektri\u011fin miktar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi tum \u00fcretilen mal ve hizmetlerin de miktar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7sek elektrik miktar\u0131na yakin birsey \u00e7\u0131kar. O da zaten SAGP ile benzer bir sonu\u00e7 verir<\/p>\n

Buradan \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 SAGP’ye g\u00f6re has\u0131la ve elektrik t\u00fcketiminin reel has\u0131la g\u00f6stergeleri oldu\u011fu. Hizmet gibi ticarete tabi olmayan sekt\u00f6rler has\u0131lan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00fcrece nominal has\u0131la ile \u00fclke kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 yapmak yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olur, \u00c7in’in geldi\u011fi noktay\u0131 gizlemeye hizmet eder. Benzer bir sorunu CIA analisti 80’li y\u0131llar\u0131n sonunda ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f. (Sovyet ve ABD Gayri Safi Milli Has\u0131lalar\u0131n\u0131n Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, CIA raporu 1960-83)\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Bu raporda Sovyet ekonomisi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ayn\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma problemine de\u011finiliyor. Muhtemelen Sovyet ekonomisi de \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz nominal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerden daha fazlas\u0131na sahipti ancak aktiflere talep olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in nominal olarak daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

\u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcmde elektrik maliyeti kullan\u0131lsayd\u0131 g\u00f6sterge yine yan\u0131ltacakt\u0131. \u00dcretilen elektri\u011fin miktar\u0131na bakinca nominal etkiler d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015f oluyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde \u00fcretilen her\u015fey i\u00e7in gerekli elektrik miktar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermemesi beklenir. Netice itibariyle bizim yeni d\u00fcnya ekonomisini enerji \u00fcretimi-t\u00fcketimi \u00fczerinden incelememiz daha isabetli mukayeselere imkan verecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

SAGP ile nominal GSY\u0130H aras\u0131ndaki bu fark, sadece akademik bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler, k\u00fcresel finans ve jeopolitik strateji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da kritik \u00f6neme sahip. Nominal veriler, \u00f6zellikle finansal piyasalarda likidite, bor\u00e7lanma kapasitesi ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri gibi g\u00f6stergelerle daha do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Bu nedenle uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 nominal GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini \u00f6ncelikli olarak dikkate al\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, SAGP \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc ise bir ekonominin ger\u00e7ek \u00fcretim kapasitesini ve halk\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc daha iyi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, uzun vadeli stratejik analizlerde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n

Enerji t\u00fcketimi temelli analizler, bu iki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm aras\u0131ndaki bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurma konusunda \u00f6nemli avantajlar sunar. \u00d6ncelikle, enerji verisi \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkede d\u00fczenli olarak raporlan\u0131r ve manip\u00fclasyon imk\u00e2n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca enerji, sanayi \u00fcretiminden hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne kadar neredeyse t\u00fcm ekonomik faaliyetlerin altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enerji t\u00fcketimindeki e\u011filimler, ekonominin \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hakk\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir do\u011frulama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, enerji bazl\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, teknolojik geli\u015fmeler ve enerji verimlili\u011findeki art\u0131\u015flar, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck ile enerji t\u00fcketimi aras\u0131ndaki korelasyonu zay\u0131flatabilir. Japonya veya Almanya gibi y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve enerji verimlili\u011fine sahip ekonomiler, nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji t\u00fcketimiyle y\u00fcksek katma de\u011fer \u00fcretebilir. Bu nedenle, enerji verisini tek ba\u015f\u0131na kullanmak yerine, SAGP \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmleriyle birlikte hibrit bir analiz modeli olu\u015fturmak daha do\u011fru sonu\u00e7lar verecektir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle \u00c7in\u2013ABD kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda bu hibrit yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerinin daha do\u011fru de\u011ferlendirilmesini sa\u011flar. \u00c7in\u2019in SAGP baz\u0131nda ABD\u2019yi ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00fcretim kapasitesi, altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve i\u00e7 pazar b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi bir avantaj\u0131 i\u015faret ederken; nominal bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 geride olmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel finansal sistemde dolar\u0131n h\u00e2kimiyeti ve sermaye hareketlerindeki asimetriyi ortaya koyar.<\/p>\n

Gelecekte, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinde enerji t\u00fcketimi, karbon emisyon verileri, dijital altyap\u0131 kapasitesi ve lojistik performans gibi reel g\u00f6stergelerle desteklenen \u00e7ok boyutlu endeksler<\/strong> \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. B\u00f6yle bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, hem SAGP\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat d\u00fczeltmesini hem de nominal verilerin finansal ger\u00e7ekli\u011fini bir araya getirir. Ayr\u0131ca kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomilerin tespitinde enerji, telekom\u00fcnikasyon trafi\u011fi ve lojistik veri gibi dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerin birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, daha \u015feffaf ve g\u00fcvenilir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar yap\u0131lmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, tek ba\u015f\u0131na nominal veya tek ba\u015f\u0131na SAGP verilerine dayal\u0131 analizler, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini tam olarak yans\u0131tmaz. Enerji t\u00fcketimi gibi manip\u00fclasyonu zor, do\u011frudan \u00fcretim kapasitesine ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler, bu resmi tamamlayan \u00f6nemli bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm katman\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik s\u0131ralamalarda daha fazla dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu, \u00f6zellikle y\u00fckselen ekonomilerin ger\u00e7ek g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir metodolojik geli\u015fme olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SAGP ve Nominal GSY\u0130H bir \u00fclkenin ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kullan\u0131lan iki ayr\u0131 parametredir ve hangi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn daha isabetli oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00c7in ve ABD aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik mukayeselerde bu tart\u0131\u015fma yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Nominal metoda g\u00f6re ABD ve \u00c7in ekonomisi, ABD’nin \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu bir senaryoda birbirlerine yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, SAGP’a g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde \u00c7in ekonomisi,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5147,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,49],"tags":[440,249,248,250],"class_list":{"0":"post-5105","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-jeopolitik-risk-analizi","9":"tag-cin-ekonomisi","10":"tag-gayri-safi-yurtici-hasila","11":"tag-gsyih","12":"tag-sagp"},"better_featured_image":{"id":5147,"alt_text":"\u00c7in ve ABD toplam enerji \u00fcretimi","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1246,"height":776,"file":"2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi.jpg","filesize":71565,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-300x187.jpg","width":300,"height":187,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":4813,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-300x187.jpg"},"large":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-1024x638.jpg","width":1024,"height":638,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":30429,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-1024x638.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":2125,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-768x478.jpg","width":768,"height":478,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":19406,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-768x478.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-150x93.jpg","width":150,"height":93,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":1653,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-150x93.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-450x280.jpg","width":450,"height":280,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8935,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-450x280.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-1200x747.jpg","width":1200,"height":747,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":35781,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-1200x747.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-768x478.jpg","width":768,"height":478,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":19406,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi-768x478.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":5105,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-elektrik-tuketimi.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5105"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5105\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5538,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5105\/revisions\/5538"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}