{"id":5120,"date":"2024-01-17T10:19:49","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T07:19:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=5120"},"modified":"2025-08-14T17:58:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T14:58:54","slug":"cari-fazla-vererek-rezerv-para-olunabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/cari-fazla-vererek-rezerv-para-olunabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Cari Fazla Vererek Rezerv Para Olunabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cari fazla vererek rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? ABD\u2019nin dolar basarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesini adil bulmayan bir kesim var. Sanki \u00e7\u0131karma maliyeti olmayan bir alt\u0131n madeniniz var gibi. ABD\u2019nin rezerv para niteli\u011findeki dolarla b\u00fcy\u00fck bir avantaja sahip oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor ama bu tek tarafl\u0131 bir tercih de\u011fil. Ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke ABD\u2019yi f\u00fctursuzca dolar basmakla su\u00e7lasa da hi\u00e7birisi paras\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para olmas\u0131n\u0131 istemiyor.<\/a><\/p>\n

Bir \u00fclke neden paras\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para olmas\u0131n\u0131 istemez? ABD gibi siz de paran\u0131z\u0131 bas\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda mal ve hizmetler almak, cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermek ister misiniz? Almanya ve \u00c7in gibi \u00fclkeler cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermek istemezler. Cari fazla verebilmek i\u00e7in ise ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere bor\u00e7 vermek zorundalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc satt\u0131klar\u0131 mallar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ba\u015fka mallar al\u0131rlarsa cari fazla veremezler.<\/a> Cari fazla ancak sat\u0131lan mallar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda finansal varl\u0131k al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda verilebilir. \u00c7in ABD tahvili ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019ye bor\u00e7 vermi\u015f olur.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin dolar basmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, birilerinin bu dolarlar\u0131 talep etmesi. Bu talebin kayna\u011f\u0131nda ise cari fazla verme merak\u0131 yat\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyada cari fazla vermek isteyen \u00fclkeler olduk\u00e7a, cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkeler de olacak. Hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermezse, hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke de cari fazla veremez.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in ABD\u2019nin dolar basarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesini istemiyorsa, cari dengeye gelmek zorunda de\u011fil. Bir ihtimal daha var: ABD\u2019ye Yuan cinsi bor\u00e7 vermek. \u00c7in ABD\u2019den dolar cinsi tahvil sat\u0131n almay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p, yuan cinsi tahvil sat\u0131n almay\u0131 talep edebilir. ABD\u2019ye satt\u0131klar\u0131 \u00c7in mallar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019ye yuan cinsi bor\u00e7 verirler. Bu durumda, ABD de dolar yerine yuan basm\u0131\u015f olur. Kula\u011fa garip geliyor ama \u00f6yle. T\u00fcrkiye eurobond ihra\u00e7 etti\u011finde de benzer bir durum s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n

Tahvilin para tan\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7inde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Ancak, ABD\u2019nin para basarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesinden kas\u0131t b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hazine ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r tahvilleri. \u00c7inliler bu tahvilleri sat\u0131n al\u0131yorlar. ABD dolar cinsi ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi tahville cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etti\u011fi gibi, yuan cinsi tahvil ihra\u00e7 ederek de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse edebilir. Yuan cinsi tahvil ihra\u00e7 etmeyi tercih eder mi? Etmezse, \u00c7in de ABD\u2019ye dolar cinsi bor\u00e7 vermezse, sonunda ABD daha az cari a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00c7in de daha az cari fazla verir. Biz de ABD\u2019nin dolar basarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesini sa\u011flayan fakt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f oluruz.<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda \u015fu anda da bir fikrimiz var. ABD\u2019ye dolar cinsi bor\u00e7 vererek, ABD\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse eden \u00c7in gibi \u00fclkeler dolar\u0131n rezerv para \u00f6zelli\u011fini peki\u015ftiriyor. ABD\u2019nin dolar basma ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131 istemiyorlarsa yapmalar\u0131 gereken basit. ABD\u2019ye kendi paralar\u0131 cinsinden bor\u00e7 vermeyi teklif etmek. Bu duruma ABD\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenir. B\u00f6yle bir d\u00fcnyada, muhtemelen ABD cari dengeye gelmeyi tercih edecektir. Peki, \u00c7in, Almanya gibi \u00fclkeler cari fazla vermeyi terk edecek midir? Terk etmediler ve terk etmeyecekleri i\u00e7in 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmeyen ABD dolar\u0131 hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

ABD bug\u00fcn yuan cinsi bor\u00e7lanmasa da d\u00fcnyada bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke \u00c7in\u2019den yuan cinsi bor\u00e7lanarak cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermeyi tercih ediyor. \u00c7in bu \u00fclkeleri yuan cinsi bor\u00e7land\u0131rarak, cari fazlas\u0131n\u0131 yuan cinsinden veriyor. \u00c7in bu sayede, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerle ticaretinde, dolar hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. 2000\u2019lerden bu yana devam eden bu giri\u015fimler hala dolar\u0131 tehdit edecek d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil. Ancak, ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde de olsa, cari fazla veren bir ekonominin paras\u0131n\u0131n rezerv para olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Buna ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6rnek verebiliriz.<\/p>\n

ABD 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 bug\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. 1980\u2019e kadar verdi\u011fi cari fazlas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00fclkeleri dolar cinsi bor\u00e7land\u0131rd\u0131. Dolar\u0131n d\u00fcnyadaki hakimiyeti de b\u00f6yle kuruldu. Ba\u015fta Avrupa ABD\u2019den dolar cinsi bor\u00e7lanarak ithalat yapt\u0131. O zaman dolar\u0131 basan ABD de\u011fil Avrupa\u2019yd\u0131. Para basarak ticareti finanse etmekle kast edilen asl\u0131nda bor\u00e7lunun bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131. Bor\u00e7 ihra\u00e7 eden bor\u00e7lu para basm\u0131\u015f oluyor. ABD cari fazlas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bor\u00e7 sat\u0131n al\u0131rken, kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki \u00fclkeler ABD\u2019ye dolar cinsi bor\u00e7 ihra\u00e7 ediyordu. Bug\u00fcn ABD cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar bas\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bor\u00e7lanan taraf hangi para birimi cinsinden bor\u00e7land\u0131ysa o para birimini basar. Bor\u00e7 ihrac\u0131n\u0131 banka kredi vererek yap\u0131yorsa, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dolar mevduat\u0131 birebir parad\u0131r. Bor\u00e7 ihrac\u0131n\u0131 banka d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kesim yap\u0131yorsa, ad\u0131na para denmez, tahvil denir.<\/p>\n

ABD dolar rezerv para olurken ya\u015fanan s\u00fcreci bug\u00fcn \u00c7in Yuan\u2019\u0131 ya\u015fasa da arada 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 gibi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fark var. 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00fcnyadaki alt\u0131n rezervlerinin %80\u2019i ABD\u2019nin eline ge\u00e7mi\u015f, uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demelerde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bo\u015fluk olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Bug\u00fcn \u00f6yle bir bo\u015fluk olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ne olacaksa \u00e7ok yava\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n

Buradan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak ilk ders, rezerv para olgusunun salt ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckle de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda jeopolitik ve tarihsel ko\u015fullarla da belirlendi\u011fidir. ABD\u2019nin 1945 sonras\u0131 konumu, sadece y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim kapasitesine de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda askeri ve diplomatik g\u00fcc\u00fcne dayan\u0131yordu. Marshall Plan\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Avrupa\u2019ya sa\u011flanan dolar likiditesi, dolar\u0131n do\u011fal bir rezerv para olarak benimsenmesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7in benzer bir stratejiyi Ku\u015fak ve Yol Giri\u015fimi \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fctmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, ancak bunun k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte dolar\u0131 ikame etmesi bug\u00fcnk\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 sistemde olduk\u00e7a zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Rezerv para olman\u0131n bir di\u011fer boyutu da finansal piyasa derinli\u011fidir. ABD Hazine tahvilleri, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fcvenilir ve en likit varl\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda kabul ediliyor. Yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131 ve fonlar, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli rezervlerini g\u00fcvenle de\u011ferlendirebilecekleri derin ve \u015feffaf bir piyasaya ihtiya\u00e7 duyar. \u00c7in ise hala sermaye kontrollerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte, finansal piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 tam serbestle\u015ftirmemektedir. Bu durum, yuan\u0131n rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, cari fazla vermek ve bor\u00e7 ihra\u00e7 etmek tek ba\u015f\u0131na rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcne giden yol i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fildir; ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00fcven, istikrar ve likidite sa\u011flayacak kurumsal altyap\u0131 gereklidir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 maliyetleri vard\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cdolar ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u201cTriffin ikilemi\u201d olarak bilinen sorunu da beraberinde getirmi\u015ftir. K\u00fcresel ekonomiye likidite sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in ABD s\u00fcrekli cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015f, bu da zaman zaman finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in gibi cari fazla veren \u00fclkeler rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc cazip g\u00f6rmemelerinin temel nedeni de budur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc rezerv para olmak, uzun vadede s\u00fcrekli d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k verme bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131r ve bu durum fazla verme iste\u011fiyle \u00e7eli\u015fir.<\/p>\n

Gelece\u011fe dair senaryolarda, dolar\u0131n tamamen taht\u0131ndan inmesinden \u00e7ok, \u00e7oklu rezerv para d\u00fczenine ge\u00e7ilmesi daha olas\u0131d\u0131r. Euro, Yen ve Yuan\u2019\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dolar\u0131n yan\u0131nda kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sistem fiilen olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Enerji ticaretinde yuan cinsi anla\u015fmalar\u0131n artmas\u0131, euro cinsi bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve b\u00f6lgesel para birlikleri bu e\u011filimi destekliyor. Ancak dolar\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ek ve g\u00fcven, yak\u0131n vadede kolay kolay a\u015f\u0131lacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, cari fazla vererek rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ula\u015fmak teorik olarak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Ancak bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 salt ekonomik bir denklemden ibaret de\u011fildir. Jeopolitik g\u00fc\u00e7, piyasa derinli\u011fi, kurumsal \u015feffafl\u0131k ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fcven gibi unsurlar olmadan, bir para biriminin d\u00fcnya rezervi haline gelmesi imkans\u0131za yak\u0131nd\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7abalar\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir alternatif olu\u015fturuyor, fakat tarihsel ko\u015fullar ABD\u2019nin lehine \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin yaratm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle, rezerv para olma ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 asl\u0131nda bir \u201cy\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck\u201d ve \u201cavantaj\u201d dengesidir; tek tarafl\u0131 bir kazan\u00e7 de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel bir sistemsel uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sonucudur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cari fazla vererek rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? ABD\u2019nin dolar basarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesini adil bulmayan bir kesim var. Sanki \u00e7\u0131karma maliyeti olmayan bir alt\u0131n madeniniz var gibi. ABD\u2019nin rezerv para niteli\u011findeki dolarla b\u00fcy\u00fck bir avantaja sahip oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor ama bu tek tarafl\u0131 bir tercih de\u011fil. Ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke ABD\u2019yi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,49,48,47],"tags":[440,207],"class_list":{"0":"post-5120","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-jeopolitik-risk-analizi","9":"category-kuresel-trendler","10":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","11":"tag-cin-ekonomisi","12":"tag-rezerv-para"},"better_featured_image":{"id":5121,"alt_text":"Cari Denge ve rezerv para","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":910,"height":661,"file":"2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi.png","filesize":23455,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-300x218.png","width":300,"height":218,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":27804,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-300x218.png"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-150x150.png","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":10853,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-150x150.png"},"medium_large":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-768x558.png","width":768,"height":558,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":99108,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-768x558.png"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-150x109.png","width":150,"height":109,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":9428,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-150x109.png"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-450x327.png","width":450,"height":327,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":50146,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-450x327.png"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-768x558.png","width":768,"height":558,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":99108,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi-768x558.png"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":5120,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Cin-ve-ABD-cari-dengesi.png"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5120"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5120\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5540,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5120\/revisions\/5540"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}