{"id":5124,"date":"2024-01-18T10:40:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-18T07:40:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=5124"},"modified":"2025-08-14T17:57:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T14:57:13","slug":"tasarruf-ve-yatirim-kavramlari-uzerine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/tasarruf-ve-yatirim-kavramlari-uzerine\/","title":{"rendered":"Tasarruf ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Kavramlar\u0131 \u00dczerine"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 manalarda kullan\u0131labiliyor. Biz bu yaz\u0131da, kavramlar\u0131n ulusal gelir hesaplamalar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan tan\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden gidece\u011fiz. Bu tan\u0131mlar, yeterli ve iktisadi analizlere \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutabilecek \u00f6zelikte.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131m deyince, reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 anlayaca\u011f\u0131z. Tasarruf, reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve verilen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n toplam\u0131na deniyor. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, ki\u015fi reel yat\u0131r\u0131m veya bor\u00e7 sat\u0131n alarak tasarruf edebilir. Sat\u0131n al\u0131nan bor\u00e7lara, finansal yat\u0131r\u0131m ad\u0131 da verilebildi\u011finden, tasarruf, reel ve finansal yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n toplam\u0131d\u0131r da denebilir.<\/p>\n

Kavramlar\u0131 yerli yerine oturttuktan sonra, anla\u015fmazl\u0131k noktalar\u0131na ge\u00e7ebiliriz. Tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m, uzun d\u00f6nemde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z trendleri a\u00e7\u0131klamada kullan\u0131l\u0131r. 1980 sonras\u0131, d\u00fc\u015fen faiz trendini tasarruf arz ve talebi \u00fczerinden anlayabiliriz. Ex post, yani ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftikten sonra, t\u00fcm arz ve talepler birbirine e\u015fittir. Faiz bize, ex ante, yani planlanan, arzu edilen arz ve talep hakk\u0131nda bilgi verir.<\/p>\n

Ex ante, planlanan, arzulanan arz ve talep \u00e7o\u011funlukla birbirinden farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Faiz, bu ikisini birbirine e\u015fitlemek i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket eder. Tasarruf talebi tasarruf arz\u0131ndan fazla iken, faizler d\u00fc\u015fer. Tersi oldu\u011funda faizler y\u00fckselir. 1980\u2019den itibaren, d\u00fcnya genelinde faizlerde bir d\u00fc\u015fme trendi oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, ex ante tasarruf talebi tasarruf arz\u0131ndan fazla olmu\u015f demektir. Faiz, ex ante dengesizli\u011fi gidermek i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, sonunda d\u00fc\u015fecek yeri kalmam\u0131\u015f, s\u0131f\u0131ra dayanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Tasarruf yat\u0131r\u0131m analizlerinde yap\u0131lan en temel hata net de\u011ferler \u00fczerinden gitmektir. \u0130ktisadi de\u011fi\u015fkenleri, br\u00fct de\u011ferler belirler. Faizi, br\u00fct tasarruf talebi ve arz\u0131 belirler. Oysa, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar bir \u00fclkenin tasarrufu \u00fczerinden yorumlar yapma hatas\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ferler. \u00dclke analizinde, \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki b\u00fct\u00fcn bor\u00e7 alacaklar birbirini g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr. Sonunda \u00fclkenin di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle bor\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi kal\u0131r. B\u00f6yle olunca, Bernanke\u2019de<\/a> \u00e7\u0131kar, faizlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00c7in gibi cari fazla veren \u00fclkelere ba\u011flar. Bu \u00fclkeler, y\u00fcksek tasarruf talepleri ile di\u011fer \u00fclkelere giderek artan miktarlarda bor\u00e7 vermek istedikleri i\u00e7in faizler d\u00fc\u015fmektedir.<\/p>\n

Br\u00fct bir tasarruf analizi, faizlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda, sadece \u00c7in gibi cari fazlas\u0131 olan \u00fclkelerin de\u011fil, ABD gibi cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan \u00fclkelerin de oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. ABD\u2019lilerin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD borcu da 1980\u2019den bu yana \u00e7\u0131\u011f gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Borcu veren de alan da ABD\u2019li olunca, ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olursa olsun, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde bor\u00e7 ve alacaklar birbirini g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor, \u00fclkelerin tasarruf, has\u0131la denklemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez oluyor.<\/p>\n

1980 sonras\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada tasarruf talebi artarken tasarruf arz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunun temelinde, bozulan gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yat\u0131yor. Zengin daha zengin, fakir daha fakir hale geldik\u00e7e, t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 talebi azald\u0131. Zay\u0131f t\u00fcketim beraberinde zay\u0131f reel yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 getirdi. Tasarrufun reel yat\u0131r\u0131m baca\u011f\u0131nda arz b\u00f6ylelikle d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Di\u011fer taraftan bor\u00e7 \u00fcretimi 2008 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar tam gaz devam etti. Fakirler, ev sahibi olabilme umuduyla zenginlere 30 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7land\u0131lar. 2008\u2019de mortagage krizi<\/a> ile birlikte hane halk\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131nca sistem kitlendi. Bu tarihten sonra faizlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f devam etti.<\/p>\n

Faizlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda sadece \u00c7in gibi tasarruf fazlas\u0131 olan \u00fclkelerin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilirsek, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn de Bernanke\u2019nin iddia etti\u011fi gibi sadece tasarruf fazlas\u0131 olan \u00fclkelerin dengeye gelmeleri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliriz. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada gelir adaletinin tesisinden ge\u00e7iyor. Gelir d\u00fczg\u00fcn da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bir taraftan g\u00fc\u00e7lenen talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, di\u011fer taraftan geliri artan hane halk\u0131 kald\u0131rac\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeden daha fazla bor\u00e7lanabilir. Zengin kesim ise artan vergi \u00f6demelerinden sonra tasarruf edecek daha az gelire sahip olur.<\/p>\n

Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda bir ilerleme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, enflasyon bir defa kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131ktan sonra, tekrar eski trende girece\u011fiz. N\u00fcfusun %99\u2019u %1\u2019ine gelir kaybettik\u00e7e, talep zay\u0131flayacak, faizler d\u00fc\u015fecek, yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 ka\u00e7acak. Geliri yetersiz hane halklar\u0131 zenginlerin talep ettikleri finansal enstr\u00fcmanlara kaynakl\u0131k edecek bor\u00e7lanmaya gidemeyecek. Zay\u0131f yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131nda, daha az yeni \u015firket kurulacak, talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamayan hisse arz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, mevcut hisselerin fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n

Ta ki b\u00fcy\u00fck krize kadar, her defas\u0131nda bu defa farkl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zannederek, fiyat balonlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131nda tekrar tekrar ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada, tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m dengesine dair tart\u0131\u015fmalarda genellikle g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7an bir unsur da finansal inovasyonlar\u0131n rol\u00fcd\u00fcr. 1980\u2019lerden itibaren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin, menkul k\u0131ymetle\u015ftirilmi\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n ve g\u00f6lge bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, br\u00fct tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ili\u015fkisini derinden etkilemi\u015ftir. Klasik ulusal gelir hesaplamalar\u0131 bu t\u00fcr ara\u00e7lar\u0131 yeterince g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ger\u00e7ek anlamda hangi kesimin tasarruf talebinde bulundu\u011fu ve hangi kesimin fonlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde anla\u015f\u0131lamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle 1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llardan itibaren t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131n h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, bor\u00e7lanma kapasitesini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f; fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda kriz anlar\u0131nda zincirleme iflaslara da kap\u0131 aralam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu nedenle, br\u00fct tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m analizinde yaln\u0131zca hanehalk\u0131 ve devlet de\u011fil, finansal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tasarruf-yat\u0131r\u0131m dengesi farkl\u0131 bir boyut ta\u015f\u0131r. \u00c7o\u011fu geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke, sermaye giri\u015fleriyle y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemleri ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f, ancak d\u0131\u015f borca ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k artt\u0131k\u00e7a faiz hareketlerine daha duyarl\u0131 hale gelmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye, Arjantin veya Brezilya gibi \u00fclkeler, d\u00f6nemsel olarak y\u00fcksek tasarruf talebini yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131\u015f; fakat k\u00fcresel faizlerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerle birlikte k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu \u00fclkelerde i\u00e7 tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f kaynak ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli hale getirmi\u015ftir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, k\u00fcresel faiz trendleri ile yerel gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 birle\u015fti\u011finde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo, yaln\u0131zca makroekonomik de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda sosyo-politik bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, teknolojik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerin tasarruf-yat\u0131r\u0131m ili\u015fkisine etkisi de ihmal edilemez. Dijitalle\u015fme ve otomasyon, yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n niteli\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Sanayi toplumunun sermaye yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yerini, bilgi teknolojilerine ve yaz\u0131l\u0131ma dayal\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ama y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, klasik yat\u0131r\u0131m tan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 sorgulatmakta, tasarruf fazlas\u0131 olan kesimlerin sermayeyi reel ekonomiye y\u00f6nlendirmesini g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu, fiziki sermaye yerine be\u015feri sermaye ve inovasyona dayanmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece, klasik faiz mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n arz-talep dengesini sa\u011flamadaki etkinli\u011fi de zay\u0131flamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 manalarda kullan\u0131labiliyor. Biz bu yaz\u0131da, kavramlar\u0131n ulusal gelir hesaplamalar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan tan\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden gidece\u011fiz. Bu tan\u0131mlar, yeterli ve iktisadi analizlere \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutabilecek \u00f6zelikte. Yat\u0131r\u0131m deyince, reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 anlayaca\u011f\u0131z. Tasarruf, reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve verilen bor\u00e7lar\u0131n toplam\u0131na deniyor. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, ki\u015fi reel yat\u0131r\u0131m veya bor\u00e7 sat\u0131n alarak tasarruf edebilir. Sat\u0131n al\u0131nan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5125,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[429,281,315],"class_list":{"0":"post-5124","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-gelir-dagilimi","10":"tag-tasarruf","11":"tag-yatirim"},"better_featured_image":{"id":5125,"alt_text":"Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve tasarruflar","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":640,"height":480,"file":"2024\/01\/Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi.png","filesize":83382,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-300x225.png","width":300,"height":225,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":27867,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-300x225.png"},"thumbnail":{"file":"Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-150x150.png","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":10614,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-150x150.png"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-150x113.png","width":150,"height":113,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":10060,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-150x113.png"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-450x338.png","width":450,"height":338,"mime-type":"image\/png","filesize":51963,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi-450x338.png"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":5124,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Tasarruf-ve-Yatirim-Dengesi.png"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5124"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5124\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5539,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5124\/revisions\/5539"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}