Politika faizinin i\u00e7sel oldu\u011fu<\/a> g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndekiler, merkez bankas\u0131 faizi olmas\u0131 gerekenden farkl\u0131 belirledi\u011finde bunun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fini iddia ediyor. Bu tarafa g\u00f6re, piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n gerektirdi\u011fi bir faiz var. Merkez bankas\u0131 faizi bunun \u00fczerinde belirlerse a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olur, alt\u0131nda belirlerse enflasyon y\u00fckselir. Enflasyonu sabit tutan faize do\u011fal faiz oran\u0131 dersek, politika faizi de enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi isteniyorsa do\u011fal faizin \u00fczerinde, y\u00fckselmesi isteniyorsa do\u011fal faizin alt\u0131nda olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\u0130\u00e7sellik tezini de ger\u00e7ek hayatta g\u00f6zlemleyebiliyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131, faizi yanl\u0131\u015f belirlerse enflasyon y\u00fckseliyor, merkez bankas\u0131 da bir noktada faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kal\u0131yor. Bu hemen t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada b\u00f6yle. FED Pandemi sonras\u0131nda \u00f6nceleri enflasyon ge\u00e7ici arg\u00fcman\u0131na sar\u0131larak faiz art\u0131rmamakta direndi. Enflasyonun y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, faiz art\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne girdi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de benzer durumlar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki taraf\u0131 orta noktada bulu\u015ftursak, \u201cmerkez bankalar\u0131 piyasa faizlerini istedi\u011fi seviyeye getirme kudretine sahiptir, ancak piyasa ger\u00e7eklerine uygun olmayan faiz s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmaz\u201d \u015feklindeki bir yakla\u015f\u0131m do\u011fru gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de de\u011fil. Merkez bankalar\u0131, tasarruf arz ve talebini kontrol edebiliyorlarsa, ger\u00e7ekten de faizi d\u0131\u015fsal belirleyebilir, yani faizi istedikleri seviyede kal\u0131c\u0131 tutabilirler.<\/p>\n
Ne demek istedi\u011fimizi a\u00e7al\u0131m. Faizi belirleyen tasarruf arz ve talebi. Tasarruf etmek isteyenler varl\u0131k al\u0131yorlar. Varl\u0131klar temelde ikiye ayr\u0131l\u0131r, reel ve finansal varl\u0131klar. Reel varl\u0131klar, reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve de\u011ferli varl\u0131klard\u0131r. Reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u015firketlerle temsil olunur. \u015eirketlere ortak olarak reel yat\u0131r\u0131m sahibi oluruz. De\u011ferli varl\u0131klar ise alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi de\u011ferli metaller ve bitcoin gibi kimsenin y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olmayan kripto varl\u0131klard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Gelelim finansal varl\u0131klara. Finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131n tamam\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcnde bor\u00e7tur. Bir ki\u015fi bir di\u011ferine bor\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bor\u00e7 veren taraf tasarruf etmi\u015f olur. Ki\u015filer, reel varl\u0131k sat\u0131n alarak veya ba\u015fkalar\u0131na bor\u00e7 vererek tasarruf ederler. Faiz, tasarruf arz ve talebinin denge noktas\u0131d\u0131r dedi\u011fimizde, tasarruf arz\u0131 taraf\u0131nda reel ve finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131n arz\u0131ndan bahsediyoruz. \u00dclkede ne kadar \u00e7ok reel yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131l\u0131yor, alt\u0131n, bitcoin gibi varl\u0131klar art\u0131yor ve ne kadar \u00e7ok bor\u00e7 \u00fcretiliyorsa, tasarruf arz\u0131 o kadar y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n
Tasarruf ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n arz\u0131 i\u00e7inde esnek olan kalem reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlard\u0131r. Talep yeterli ise, reel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar devaml\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterebilir. Yeni \u015firketler kurulur, onlar\u0131n hisse senetlerini al\u0131r\u0131z. De\u011ferli varl\u0131klar, arzlar\u0131 esnek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011ferlidir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinden alt\u0131n \u00e7\u0131ksa, alt\u0131n de\u011fer yitirir. Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131 ke\u015ffedildi\u011finde b\u00f6yle bir durum ya\u015fand\u0131. Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131ndan Avrupa\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131nan alt\u0131n, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere neden oldu. Benzer \u015fekilde, bitcoin gibi kimsenin y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olmayan kripto varl\u0131klar da de\u011ferlerini arzlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan al\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Borcun arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 m\u0131d\u0131r? K\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131d\u0131r. Borcun arz\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7t\u0131r. Kald\u0131ra\u00e7 borcun bor\u00e7lunun \u00f6z kayna\u011f\u0131na oran\u0131d\u0131r. Bu oran artt\u0131k\u00e7a, bor\u00e7lu daha fazla bor\u00e7lanmak istemez, borcu riskli hale gelece\u011finden talep g\u00f6rmez.<\/p>\n
Faiz tasarruf arz ve talebinin denge noktas\u0131. Tasarruf arz\u0131 kalemlerini sayd\u0131k. Tasarruf talebi taraf\u0131nda en etkili belirleyici gelir adaletsizli\u011fi. Zengin daha zengin olduk\u00e7a, yeni elde etti\u011fi gelirin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 ile tasarruf etmek ister. Bu da tasarruf talebini art\u0131r\u0131r. 1980 sonras\u0131, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bozuldu\u011fu i\u00e7in tasarruf talebi \u00e7ok artt\u0131. Artan talep kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, tasarruf arz\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde esnek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00dcstelik, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki bozulma, ba\u015fta Japonya olmak \u00fczere, talebi de zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, tek esnek tasarruf arz\u0131 kalemi olan reel yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 da ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Zay\u0131f talep kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar h\u0131z kesti.<\/p>\n
Tasarruf talebi giderek artarken, tasarruf arz\u0131n\u0131n giderek d\u00fc\u015fmesi, faizleri 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine soktu. 2008 krizi, tasarruf talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in giri\u015filen bor\u00e7 \u00fcretim \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2008 krizi sonras\u0131, hane halk\u0131 kald\u0131rac\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131nca, finansal varl\u0131k arz\u0131 da k\u0131s\u0131t alt\u0131na girmi\u015f oldu. Bu ortamda, \u00f6nce k\u0131sa vadeli ard\u0131ndan uzun vadeli faizler s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcler. Bulgaristan hazine tahvili faizleri eksiyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi tart\u0131\u015fmam\u0131za geri d\u00f6nebiliriz. Merkez bankas\u0131 tasarruf arz ve talebini kontrol edebilecek ara\u00e7lara sahipse, faizi istedi\u011fi seviyede kal\u0131c\u0131 tutabilir iddias\u0131nday\u0131z. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir merkez bankas\u0131, faizi kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede belirlemek istiyorsa, finansal varl\u0131k arz\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek bu amac\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131r. Finansal varl\u0131k yani bor\u00e7 arz\u0131n\u0131, bor\u00e7lu kald\u0131rac\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. 2008 sonras\u0131, hane halk\u0131 kald\u0131rac\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bahsetmi\u015ftik. Hane halk\u0131, sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 konutun belli bir oran\u0131n\u0131 pe\u015fin yat\u0131rmak zorunda kald\u0131. Kredi kart\u0131 limitleri gelirle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Kredi kart\u0131na ve ihtiya\u00e7 kredilerine taksit s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 getirildi.<\/p>\n
Hane halk\u0131 kredilerine getirilen s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar, \u00fclkemizde ve d\u00fcnyada ticari kredilere getirilmeli. \u00dclkemizde, kredilerin %80\u2019i ticari oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, ticari bor\u00e7lanma k\u0131s\u0131tlanarak faiz d\u0131\u015fsal belirlenebilir. Merkez bankas\u0131, \u015firket bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015firketlerin gelirler veya \u00f6z kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n belli bir kat\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bor\u00e7\/tasarruf arz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer. Bunun sonucunda, enflasyonu sabit tutan do\u011fal faiz oran\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015fer. Merkez bankas\u0131 bu yolla, faizi istedi\u011fi seviyede kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya 2008 sonras\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 ke\u015ffetti. Ama daha yolun \u00e7ok ba\u015f\u0131nday\u0131z. Kald\u0131ra\u00e7 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131<\/a> kredilerin sadece %20\u2019sinde tecr\u00fcbe edildi. Kredi arz\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kontrol edebilen bu ara\u00e7lar, politika faizinin d\u0131\u015fsal belirlenmesine de olanak tan\u0131yor. Hen\u00fcz bu y\u00f6nleri pek ke\u015ffedilmedi. \u00dclkemizde ise derhal ke\u015ffedilmesine ihtiya\u00e7 var. Aksi takdirde, y\u00fckselen enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, her defas\u0131nda daha fazla faiz y\u00fckseltmek, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, seri firma iflaslar\u0131na, kitlesel temerr\u00fctlere yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Politika faizi i\u00e7sel midir yoksa d\u0131\u015fsal m\u0131?T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi, Merkez Bankalar\u0131 faizi istedikleri d\u00fczeyde belirleyebilir mi? Bir taraf belirleyebilir, fiilen de \u00f6yle oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz diyor. Ger\u00e7ekten, merkez bankalar\u0131 faizi nereye getirirse, piyasa faizleri de onu takip ediyor. Bunun ba\u015fka t\u00fcrl\u00fc olmas\u0131 da beklenemez. Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, piyasa faizleri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yorsa, banka gider merkez bankas\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lan\u0131r. Di\u011fer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[228,280,490],"class_list":{"0":"post-5130","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-faiz","10":"tag-merkez-bankaciligi","11":"tag-politika-faizi"},"better_featured_image":{"id":5132,"alt_text":"Politika faizi d\u0131\u015fsal m\u0131?","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":1228,"height":816,"file":"2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1.jpg","filesize":103622,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-300x199.jpg","width":300,"height":199,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":8326,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-300x199.jpg"},"large":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-1024x680.jpg","width":1024,"height":680,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":35916,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-1024x680.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":6173,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-768x510.jpg","width":768,"height":510,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":24008,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-768x510.jpg"},"bunyad-small":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-150x100.jpg","width":150,"height":100,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5133,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-150x100.jpg"},"bunyad-medium":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-450x299.jpg","width":450,"height":299,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":12002,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-450x299.jpg"},"bunyad-full":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-1200x797.jpg","width":1200,"height":797,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":45832,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-1200x797.jpg"},"bunyad-768":{"file":"jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-768x510.jpg","width":768,"height":510,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":24008,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1-768x510.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"1","keywords":[]}},"post":5130,"source_url":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/jon-cellier-7JoXNRbx6Qg-unsplash-1.jpg"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5130"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5130\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5142,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5130\/revisions\/5142"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}