{"id":5441,"date":"2025-08-04T08:27:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T05:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=5441"},"modified":"2025-08-04T08:27:22","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T05:27:22","slug":"borsa-istanbul-yerli-yabanci-kazanclari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/borsa-istanbul-yerli-yabanci-kazanclari\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsa \u0130stanbul Yerli Yabanc\u0131 Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\"><strong>Borsa \u0130stanbul<\/strong>&#8216;da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir tart\u0131\u015fma konusudur. En temel sorulardan biri \u015fudur: &#8220;<strong>Borsada yerli mi kazan\u0131yor, yoksa yabanc\u0131 m\u0131 ?&#8221;<\/strong> Bu soru hem kamuoyunun hem de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zihninde yer etmi\u015ftir. Bu yaz\u0131da, bu soruya bilimsel temelde yan\u0131t ar\u0131yoruz. 2020 ba\u015f\u0131ndan 2025 ortas\u0131na kadar olan 5,5 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir d\u00f6nemde yabanc\u0131 ve yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n borsa getirileri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Veriler, sahiplik oranlar\u0131 ve BIST 100 endeksinin USD bazl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri \u00fczerinden \u00fcretildi ve istatistiksel analizlerle test edildi.<\/p>\n<h3>Ekonomik ve Psikolojik Arka Plan<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/turkiyede-spekulatif-sermaye-ve-finansal-riskler\/\">Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar<\/a> genellikle uzun vadeli kurumsal fonlar, emeklilik fonlar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim \u015firketleri olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken; yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, hem bireysel hem de daha k\u0131sa vadeli getiri beklentileri olan kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lardan olu\u015fur. Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131k, stratejik zamanlamalarda tercih ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na neden olabilir. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimleri nedeniyle geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalardan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kabilirken, yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcp daha fazla al\u0131m yapabilir. Bu da getirilerin d\u00f6nemsel olarak farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/p>\n<h3>Y\u00f6ntem<\/h3>\n<p>Analizde kullan\u0131lan veri seti, her ay i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki de\u011fi\u015fkenleri i\u00e7ermektedir:<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n takas oran\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n takas oran\u0131 (tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 oran olarak: 1 &#8211; yabanc\u0131 oran\u0131)<\/li>\n<li>BIST 100 endeksinin USD bazl\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f de\u011feri<\/li>\n<li>Her ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan sonuna kadar olan endeks de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00fczerinden varsay\u0131msal kazan\u00e7lar (log getiriler de\u011fil, normal farklar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu verilerden hareketle, ayl\u0131k bazda yabanc\u0131 ve yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 hesapland\u0131. Her iki grubun ortalama kazan\u00e7 farklar\u0131n\u0131n anlaml\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test etmek i\u00e7in e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f (ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131) t-testi kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Bu test, her d\u00f6nemde yabanc\u0131 ve yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayn\u0131 ko\u015fullarda getirilerinin farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131p farkl\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 istatistiksel olarak \u00f6l\u00e7meyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Veri Seti<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Hesaplamalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki veri seti kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<table width=\"562\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"55\"><strong>Tarih<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"131\"><strong>Yabanc\u0131 Takas Oran\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"111\"><strong>Yerli Takas Oran\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"83\"><strong>XU100 (Usd)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"101\"><strong>Yabanc\u0131 Kazan\u00e7<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"81\"><strong>Yerli Kazan\u00e7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/01<\/td>\n<td>61,44%<\/td>\n<td>38,56%<\/td>\n<td>199,18<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/02<\/td>\n<td>59,34%<\/td>\n<td>40,66%<\/td>\n<td>169,47<\/td>\n<td>0,62<\/td>\n<td>-0,62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/03<\/td>\n<td>59,04%<\/td>\n<td>40,96%<\/td>\n<td>135,50<\/td>\n<td>0,10<\/td>\n<td>-0,10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/04<\/td>\n<td>57,44%<\/td>\n<td>42,56%<\/td>\n<td>144,68<\/td>\n<td>-0,15<\/td>\n<td>0,15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/05<\/td>\n<td>52,82%<\/td>\n<td>47,18%<\/td>\n<td>154,87<\/td>\n<td>-0,47<\/td>\n<td>0,47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/06<\/td>\n<td>51,31%<\/td>\n<td>48,69%<\/td>\n<td>170,00<\/td>\n<td>-0,23<\/td>\n<td>0,23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/07<\/td>\n<td>54,97%<\/td>\n<td>45,03%<\/td>\n<td>161,09<\/td>\n<td>-0,33<\/td>\n<td>0,33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/08<\/td>\n<td>51,17%<\/td>\n<td>48,83%<\/td>\n<td>146,74<\/td>\n<td>0,55<\/td>\n<td>-0,55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/09<\/td>\n<td>48,77%<\/td>\n<td>51,23%<\/td>\n<td>148,32<\/td>\n<td>-0,04<\/td>\n<td>0,04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/10<\/td>\n<td>49,74%<\/td>\n<td>50,26%<\/td>\n<td>133,27<\/td>\n<td>-0,15<\/td>\n<td>0,15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/11<\/td>\n<td>51,50%<\/td>\n<td>48,50%<\/td>\n<td>163,97<\/td>\n<td>0,54<\/td>\n<td>-0,54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2020\/12<\/td>\n<td>48,84%<\/td>\n<td>51,16%<\/td>\n<td>198,61<\/td>\n<td>-0,92<\/td>\n<td>0,92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/01<\/td>\n<td>47,53%<\/td>\n<td>52,47%<\/td>\n<td>201,35<\/td>\n<td>-0,04<\/td>\n<td>0,04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/02<\/td>\n<td>45,85%<\/td>\n<td>54,15%<\/td>\n<td>197,93<\/td>\n<td>0,06<\/td>\n<td>-0,06<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/03<\/td>\n<td>43,52%<\/td>\n<td>56,48%<\/td>\n<td>168,72<\/td>\n<td>0,68<\/td>\n<td>-0,68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/04<\/td>\n<td>42,82%<\/td>\n<td>57,18%<\/td>\n<td>168,65<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/05<\/td>\n<td>42,10%<\/td>\n<td>57,90%<\/td>\n<td>167,34<\/td>\n<td>0,01<\/td>\n<td>-0,01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/06<\/td>\n<td>42,85%<\/td>\n<td>57,15%<\/td>\n<td>155,75<\/td>\n<td>-0,09<\/td>\n<td>0,09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/07<\/td>\n<td>42,19%<\/td>\n<td>57,81%<\/td>\n<td>164,76<\/td>\n<td>-0,06<\/td>\n<td>0,06<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/08<\/td>\n<td>42,43%<\/td>\n<td>57,57%<\/td>\n<td>177,00<\/td>\n<td>0,03<\/td>\n<td>-0,03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/09<\/td>\n<td>41,77%<\/td>\n<td>58,23%<\/td>\n<td>158,20<\/td>\n<td>0,12<\/td>\n<td>-0,12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/10<\/td>\n<td>41,07%<\/td>\n<td>58,93%<\/td>\n<td>159,49<\/td>\n<td>-0,01<\/td>\n<td>0,01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/11<\/td>\n<td>42,55%<\/td>\n<td>57,45%<\/td>\n<td>132,13<\/td>\n<td>-0,40<\/td>\n<td>0,40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021\/12<\/td>\n<td>40,63%<\/td>\n<td>59,37%<\/td>\n<td>138,60<\/td>\n<td>-0,12<\/td>\n<td>0,12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/01<\/td>\n<td>40,30%<\/td>\n<td>59,70%<\/td>\n<td>150,33<\/td>\n<td>-0,04<\/td>\n<td>0,04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/02<\/td>\n<td>40,10%<\/td>\n<td>59,90%<\/td>\n<td>140,61<\/td>\n<td>0,02<\/td>\n<td>-0,02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/03<\/td>\n<td>37,35%<\/td>\n<td>62,65%<\/td>\n<td>152,19<\/td>\n<td>-0,32<\/td>\n<td>0,32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/04<\/td>\n<td>36,92%<\/td>\n<td>63,08%<\/td>\n<td>163,66<\/td>\n<td>-0,05<\/td>\n<td>0,05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/05<\/td>\n<td>35,15%<\/td>\n<td>64,85%<\/td>\n<td>155,28<\/td>\n<td>0,15<\/td>\n<td>-0,15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/06<\/td>\n<td>33,60%<\/td>\n<td>66,40%<\/td>\n<td>144,04<\/td>\n<td>0,17<\/td>\n<td>-0,17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/07<\/td>\n<td>32,93%<\/td>\n<td>67,07%<\/td>\n<td>144,71<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/08<\/td>\n<td>34,61%<\/td>\n<td>65,39%<\/td>\n<td>174,34<\/td>\n<td>0,50<\/td>\n<td>-0,50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/09<\/td>\n<td>32,49%<\/td>\n<td>67,51%<\/td>\n<td>171,87<\/td>\n<td>0,05<\/td>\n<td>-0,05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/10<\/td>\n<td>30,93%<\/td>\n<td>69,07%<\/td>\n<td>213,75<\/td>\n<td>-0,65<\/td>\n<td>0,65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/11<\/td>\n<td>29,97%<\/td>\n<td>70,03%<\/td>\n<td>267,12<\/td>\n<td>-0,51<\/td>\n<td>0,51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2022\/12<\/td>\n<td>29,53%<\/td>\n<td>70,47%<\/td>\n<td>294,46<\/td>\n<td>-0,12<\/td>\n<td>0,12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/01<\/td>\n<td>29,32%<\/td>\n<td>70,68%<\/td>\n<td>264,50<\/td>\n<td>0,06<\/td>\n<td>-0,06<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/02<\/td>\n<td>28,65%<\/td>\n<td>71,35%<\/td>\n<td>277,32<\/td>\n<td>-0,09<\/td>\n<td>0,09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/03<\/td>\n<td>28,41%<\/td>\n<td>71,59%<\/td>\n<td>250,96<\/td>\n<td>0,06<\/td>\n<td>-0,06<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/04<\/td>\n<td>28,92%<\/td>\n<td>71,08%<\/td>\n<td>237,44<\/td>\n<td>-0,07<\/td>\n<td>0,07<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/05<\/td>\n<td>27,63%<\/td>\n<td>72,37%<\/td>\n<td>234,95<\/td>\n<td>0,03<\/td>\n<td>-0,03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/06<\/td>\n<td>29,19%<\/td>\n<td>70,81%<\/td>\n<td>221,34<\/td>\n<td>-0,21<\/td>\n<td>0,21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/07<\/td>\n<td>29,92%<\/td>\n<td>70,08%<\/td>\n<td>267,93<\/td>\n<td>0,34<\/td>\n<td>-0,34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/08<\/td>\n<td>31,20%<\/td>\n<td>68,80%<\/td>\n<td>296,58<\/td>\n<td>0,37<\/td>\n<td>-0,37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/09<\/td>\n<td>35,93%<\/td>\n<td>64,07%<\/td>\n<td>304,10<\/td>\n<td>0,36<\/td>\n<td>-0,36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/10<\/td>\n<td>36,12%<\/td>\n<td>63,88%<\/td>\n<td>265,44<\/td>\n<td>-0,07<\/td>\n<td>0,07<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/11<\/td>\n<td>34,59%<\/td>\n<td>65,41%<\/td>\n<td>275,32<\/td>\n<td>-0,15<\/td>\n<td>0,15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023\/12<\/td>\n<td>38,01%<\/td>\n<td>61,99%<\/td>\n<td>253,46<\/td>\n<td>-0,75<\/td>\n<td>0,75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/01<\/td>\n<td>37,47%<\/td>\n<td>62,53%<\/td>\n<td>280,00<\/td>\n<td>-0,14<\/td>\n<td>0,14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/02<\/td>\n<td>35,92%<\/td>\n<td>64,08%<\/td>\n<td>294,36<\/td>\n<td>-0,22<\/td>\n<td>0,22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/03<\/td>\n<td>37,90%<\/td>\n<td>62,10%<\/td>\n<td>282,34<\/td>\n<td>-0,24<\/td>\n<td>0,24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/04<\/td>\n<td>37,94%<\/td>\n<td>62,06%<\/td>\n<td>310,00<\/td>\n<td>0,01<\/td>\n<td>-0,01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/05<\/td>\n<td>38,89%<\/td>\n<td>61,11%<\/td>\n<td>322,83<\/td>\n<td>0,12<\/td>\n<td>-0,12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/06<\/td>\n<td>38,16%<\/td>\n<td>61,84%<\/td>\n<td>325,45<\/td>\n<td>-0,02<\/td>\n<td>0,02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/07<\/td>\n<td>38,34%<\/td>\n<td>61,66%<\/td>\n<td>321,00<\/td>\n<td>-0,01<\/td>\n<td>0,01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/08<\/td>\n<td>39,73%<\/td>\n<td>60,27%<\/td>\n<td>288,58<\/td>\n<td>-0,45<\/td>\n<td>0,45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/09<\/td>\n<td>38,19%<\/td>\n<td>61,81%<\/td>\n<td>282,70<\/td>\n<td>0,09<\/td>\n<td>-0,09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/10<\/td>\n<td>38,28%<\/td>\n<td>61,72%<\/td>\n<td>258,76<\/td>\n<td>-0,02<\/td>\n<td>0,02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/11<\/td>\n<td>37,25%<\/td>\n<td>62,75%<\/td>\n<td>278,14<\/td>\n<td>-0,20<\/td>\n<td>0,20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2024\/12<\/td>\n<td>37,22%<\/td>\n<td>62,78%<\/td>\n<td>277,85<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/01<\/td>\n<td>37,08%<\/td>\n<td>62,92%<\/td>\n<td>279,09<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<td>0,00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/02<\/td>\n<td>36,91%<\/td>\n<td>63,09%<\/td>\n<td>264,86<\/td>\n<td>0,02<\/td>\n<td>-0,02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/03<\/td>\n<td>37,87%<\/td>\n<td>62,13%<\/td>\n<td>254,27<\/td>\n<td>-0,10<\/td>\n<td>0,10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/04<\/td>\n<td>35,41%<\/td>\n<td>64,59%<\/td>\n<td>235,85<\/td>\n<td>0,45<\/td>\n<td>-0,45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/05<\/td>\n<td>35,28%<\/td>\n<td>64,72%<\/td>\n<td>230,03<\/td>\n<td>0,01<\/td>\n<td>-0,01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/06<\/td>\n<td>35,15%<\/td>\n<td>64,85%<\/td>\n<td>249,89<\/td>\n<td>-0,03<\/td>\n<td>0,03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025\/07<\/td>\n<td>36,90%<\/td>\n<td>63,10%<\/td>\n<td>264,40<\/td>\n<td>0,25<\/td>\n<td>-0,25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h4>Ayl\u0131k Bazda Kazan\u00e7 Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131<\/h4>\n<p>Ayl\u0131k bazda yap\u0131lan analizde:<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ortalama kazanc\u0131: <strong>\u20130.0250<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ortalama kazanc\u0131: <strong>+0.0250<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Ortalama fark: <strong>\u20130.0501<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Standart sapma: <strong>0.5884<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>t-testi sonucu: t = \u20130.6968, <strong>p = 0.488<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bulunmu\u015ftur. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu izlenimi olu\u015fsa da, t-testi sonucu bu fark\u0131n istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. p-de\u011feri 0.05\u2019in olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, iki grup aras\u0131ndaki fark rastlant\u0131sal dalgalanmalardan ibaret olabilir.<\/p>\n<h3>Bilimsel De\u011ferlendirme ve Yorum<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Statistical_hypothesis_test\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130statistiksel testlerde<\/a> kullan\u0131lan hipotezler \u015fu \u015fekildeydi:<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li><strong>H\u2080 (Null Hipotez):<\/strong> Yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ortalama kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 e\u015fittir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>H\u2081 (Alternatif Hipotez):<\/strong> Yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ortalama kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda anlaml\u0131 fark vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yap\u0131lan testte, H\u2080 hipotezi reddedilememi\u015ftir. Bu durum, elde edilen kazan\u00e7 farklar\u0131n\u0131n istatistiksel olarak tesad\u00fcfi olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00d6zellikle y\u00fcksek varyans (standart sapma = 0.5884) ve g\u00f6zlem say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 (n = 67 ay) bu t\u00fcr testlerin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle, elimizdeki veriler ve \u00f6rneklem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu farklar\u0131n anlaml\u0131 oldu\u011funu iddia etmek i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fildir. E\u011fer veri seti daha uzun bir d\u00f6nemi kapsasayd\u0131 veya varyans daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsayd\u0131, bu durumda istatistiksel anlaml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilirdi.<\/p>\n<h3>Alternatif Yorumlama Katmanlar\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Buradaki analiz yaln\u0131zca fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimleri ve takas oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen ba\u015fka bir\u00e7ok unsur vard\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin;<\/p>\n<ul data-spread=\"false\">\n<li>Vergilendirme farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>\u0130\u015flem maliyetleri,<\/li>\n<li>Likidite ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel makro risk alg\u0131s\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rler.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar TL baz\u0131nda kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00f6viz baz\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak zorundad\u0131r. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131nda ve portf\u00f6y getirilerinde do\u011frudan etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Grafikte de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde birbirine \u00e7ok yak\u0131nken, baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde sapmalar g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6zellikle 2020 ikinci \u00e7eyrek gibi ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde fark dramatikle\u015fmi\u015f, ancak genel trend olarak bu farklar birbirini dengelemi\u015ftir. Grafiksel izlenim, verilerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sistematik avantaj\u0131 desteklemedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Ancak grafiksel analiz istatistiksel test yerine ge\u00e7mez.<\/p>\n<h3>Sonu\u00e7<\/h3>\n<p>Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da 2020\u20132025 d\u00f6neminde yerli ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n varsay\u0131msal kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n istatistiksel olarak kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemi\u015ftir. Elde edilen bulgular, yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ortalama olarak daha y\u00fcksek kazan\u00e7 elde etmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine ra\u011fmen, bu fark\u0131n istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu t\u00fcr analizler, duygusal kararlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir. Yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 kamuoyunda zaman zaman g\u00fc\u00e7 kazansa da, bu analiz, bilimsel olarak bu fark\u0131n sistematik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 stratejilerinde \u00f6nyarg\u0131lardan ziyade verilere dayal\u0131 kararlar al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca, bu bulgular d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar i\u00e7in de anlaml\u0131d\u0131r. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun vadeli kararlarda daha az etkili oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek volatilite g\u00f6sterebilir. Bu nedenle, piyasan\u0131n derinli\u011fi, \u015feffafl\u0131k ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi gibi yap\u0131sal fakt\u00f6rler daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, bu analiz &#8216;kimin kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8217; sorusundan daha \u00e7ok &#8216;hangi ko\u015fullarda ne oluyor&#8217; sorusuna dikkat \u00e7ekmekte ve borsadaki davran\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya y\u00f6nelik istatistiksel \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Borsa \u0130stanbul&#8216;da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir tart\u0131\u015fma konusudur. En temel sorulardan biri \u015fudur: &#8220;Borsada yerli mi kazan\u0131yor, yoksa yabanc\u0131 m\u0131 ?&#8221; Bu soru hem kamuoyunun hem de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zihninde yer etmi\u015ftir. Bu yaz\u0131da, bu soruya bilimsel temelde yan\u0131t ar\u0131yoruz. 2020 ba\u015f\u0131ndan 2025 ortas\u0131na kadar olan 5,5 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir d\u00f6nemde yabanc\u0131 ve yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n borsa getirileri<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":5442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,11,51,50],"tags":[480,532,534],"class_list":{"0":"post-5441","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-finansal-veri-okuryazarligi","8":"category-hisse-yorum-ve-korelasyonlar","9":"category-korelasyon-analizleri","10":"category-veri-destekli-okumalar","11":"tag-bist","12":"tag-borsa-istanbul","13":"tag-yabanci-takas-orani"},"better_featured_image":{"id":5442,"alt_text":"Bist'te kim kazan\u0131yor? Yerli mi? 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