{"id":5634,"date":"2025-12-11T13:25:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T10:25:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/?p=5634"},"modified":"2025-12-11T13:25:36","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T10:25:36","slug":"uretim-imkanlari-egrisi-kaldor-yasalari-ve-turkiyede-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/uretim-imkanlari-egrisi-kaldor-yasalari-ve-turkiyede-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dcretim \u0130mkanlar\u0131 E\u011frisi Kaldor Yasalar\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu makale, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda klasik bir ara\u00e7 olan <strong>\u00fcretim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 e\u011frisi<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Kaldor yasalar\u0131 <\/strong>ve yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm literat\u00fcr\u00fc ile birlikte ele alarak, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in sade ama tutarl\u0131 bir analitik \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00f6nermektedir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6nce \u00dc\u0130E, potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve sekt\u00f6rel bile\u015fim ili\u015fkisi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmakta; ard\u0131ndan imalat sanayinin &#8220;b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru&#8221; olarak konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kaldorcu yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6zetlenmektedir. Daha sonra \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinden <strong>i\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong> ile <strong>ihracat\/imalat odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong> senaryolar\u0131 ele almaktad\u0131r.\u00a0Son b\u00f6l\u00fcmde ise T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin son otuz y\u0131l\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 stilize \u00dc\u0130E noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden yorumlanmakta; sanayi \u00fcretimi ile GSYH aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin Kaldor yasalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde test edildi\u011fi ampirik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara at\u0131f yap\u0131larak politika tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011flanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>1. Giri\u015f<\/h2>\n<p>Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde, hem teorik hem de ampirik d\u00fczeyde en tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 konulardan biri, <strong>hangi sekt\u00f6r bile\u015fimlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekledi\u011fi<\/strong> sorusudur. Bir yanda, imalat sanayini ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana motoru olarak g\u00f6ren Kaldorcu \u00e7izgi; di\u011fer yanda, hizmetle\u015fmenin ve dijitalle\u015fmenin h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin art\u0131k mutlaka sanayi eksenine dayanmas\u0131 gerekmedi\u011fini savunan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n soyut d\u00fczeyde kalmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in, basit ama \u00f6\u011fretici bir ara\u00e7 olarak<a href=\"https:\/\/datakapital.com\/blog\/uretim-imkanlari-egrisi\/\"> <strong>\u00fcretim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 e\u011frisi (\u00dc\u0130E)<\/strong><\/a> kullan\u0131labilir. \u00dc\u0130E, bir ekonominin belirli bir anda sahip oldu\u011fu kaynaklar ve teknoloji alt\u0131nda \u00fcretebilece\u011fi mal ve hizmet bile\u015fimlerini g\u00f6sterir. E\u011frinin \u00fczerindeki her nokta, farkl\u0131 bir sekt\u00f6rel kompozisyonu temsil eder; e\u011frinin tamam\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru kaymas\u0131 ise potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131daki art\u0131\u015f\u0131, yani uzun d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ifade eder.<\/p>\n<p>Bu makale, \u00dc\u0130E\u2019yi \u015fu soruya cevap aramak i\u00e7in kullanmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;T\u00fcrkiye gibi orta gelirli, d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131k ama i\u00e7 talep dinamikleri de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomide, <strong>i\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong> ile <strong>ihracat\/imalat odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong> senaryolar\u0131 \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l analiz edilebilir ve Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131 bu analize nas\u0131l entegre edilebilir?&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Yan\u0131t aran\u0131rken, Kaldor\u2019un klasik b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131, imalat sanayinin artan getiriler ve d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k kanal\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki rol\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulayan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar ve T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zelinde sanayi \u00fcretimi\u2013GSYH ili\u015fkisini test eden ampirik literat\u00fcr referans al\u0131nmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>2. Teorik \u00c7er\u00e7eve: \u00dcretim \u0130mk\u00e2nlar\u0131 E\u011frisi ve Yap\u0131sal D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm<\/h2>\n<h3>2.1. \u00dcretim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 e\u011frisi ve potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>\u00dcretim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 e\u011frisi (\u00dc\u0130E), mikro iktisat derslerinde genellikle iki mal \u00fczerinden anlat\u0131lan basit bir grafiktir. Ancak bu basit grafik, makro \u00f6l\u00e7ekte <strong>potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131<\/strong>, <strong>verimlilik<\/strong> ve <strong>yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim<\/strong> tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evelemek i\u00e7in de kullan\u0131labilir. Bir ekonomide iki toplula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sekt\u00f6r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Y ekseni: <strong>D\u0131\u015f talep\/ihracat odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler<\/strong> (imalat sanayi, belli hizmet ihracat\u0131, turizm vb.)<\/li>\n<li>X ekseni: <strong>\u0130\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler<\/strong> (in\u015faat, yerel hizmetler, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u00e7 pazar i\u00e7in \u00fcretim yapan kollar vb.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu iki sekt\u00f6r bile\u015fiminin, mevcut sermaye sto\u011fu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve teknoloji alt\u0131nda \u00fcretebilece\u011fi t\u00fcm kombinasyonlar \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde yer al\u0131r. E\u011frinin i\u00e7i, at\u0131l kapasite veya kaynak israf\u0131n\u0131; e\u011fri \u00fczerindeki noktalar, verilen teknoloji d\u00fczeyinde <strong>etkin \u00fcretim bile\u015fimlerini<\/strong> temsil eder. E\u011frinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ise, mevcut kaynaklarla ula\u015f\u0131lamaz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u0130E\u2019nin <strong>zaman i\u00e7inde d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru kaymas\u0131<\/strong>, ekonomi literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde genellikle <strong>potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> olarak yorumlan\u0131r. Teknolojik geli\u015fme, be\u015feri sermayenin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, kurumsal iyile\u015fme gibi fakt\u00f6rler, ayn\u0131 kaynaklarla daha fazla \u00fcretim yap\u0131lmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n sa\u011flar; e\u011fri hem i\u00e7 talep hem de ihracat ekseni y\u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6ner. Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme modellerinde sermaye birikimi ve verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kavramlar\u0131yla uyumludur.<\/p>\n<h3>2.2. \u00dc\u0130E, sekt\u00f6rel bile\u015fim ve yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm<\/h3>\n<p>\u00dc\u0130E, yaln\u0131zca toplam \u00fcretim seviyesini de\u011fil, sekt\u00f6rel kompozisyonu da g\u00f6rselle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. E\u011fri \u00fczerindeki farkl\u0131 noktalar, tar\u0131m\u2013imalat\u2013hizmet veya daha agregede i\u00e7 talep\u2013d\u0131\u015f talep ayr\u0131m\u0131 gibi bile\u015fimleri temsil edebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm literat\u00fcr\u00fc, uzun d\u00f6nem kalk\u0131nman\u0131n tar\u0131mdan daha y\u00fcksek verimlilik d\u00fczeyine sahip sekt\u00f6rlere\u2014\u00f6zellikle imalata ve se\u00e7ilmi\u015f hizmet kollar\u0131na\u2014do\u011fru bir <strong>istihdam ve \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 yeniden tahsisi<\/strong> gerektirdi\u011fini vurgular. Tar\u0131m ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimli hizmetlerden imalat ve modern hizmetlere i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kaymas\u0131, toplam verimlili\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde daha \u00fcretken sekt\u00f6rleri temsil eden eksen y\u00f6n\u00fcnde <strong>nokta hareketi<\/strong> olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; uzun vadede ise bu hareket, \u00f6\u011frenme, \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri ve teknoloji yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sayesinde e\u011frinin d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru kaymas\u0131n\u0131 da tetikler.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde <strong>hangi noktada duruldu\u011fu<\/strong> sekt\u00f6rel kompozisyonu, <strong>e\u011frinin zaman i\u00e7inde nereye kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte gelen yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc temsil eder. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nicholas_Kaldor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kaldor\u2019un imalat sanayini<\/a> b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru olarak ele alan yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla do\u011fal bi\u00e7imde birle\u015ftirilebilir.<\/p>\n<h2>3. Kaldor\u2019un B\u00fcy\u00fcme Yasalar\u0131 ve \u0130malat\u0131n Rol\u00fc<\/h2>\n<h3>3.1. Kaldor\u2019un birinci yasas\u0131: \u0130malat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi<\/h3>\n<p>Nicholas Kaldor, 1960\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda ileri sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, literat\u00fcre <strong>&#8220;Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131&#8221;<\/strong> olarak giren bir dizi ampirik ili\u015fki \u00f6nermi\u015ftir. \u0130lk yasa, \u00f6zetle \u015fu iddiay\u0131 i\u00e7erir:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u0130malat sanayi \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a, toplam GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 da artar.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bu ili\u015fki, salt muhasebe kimli\u011finden ibaret de\u011fildir; Kaldor\u2019a g\u00f6re imalat, hem statik hem de dinamik artan getiriler bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere k\u0131yasla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc besleyen bir aland\u0131r. \u0130malatta \u00f6l\u00e7ek b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e birim maliyetler d\u00fc\u015fer, verimlilik artar ve bu sekt\u00f6r di\u011fer alanlara teknoloji ve talep yayar. Ampirik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, imalat \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi aras\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclke ve d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in pozitif ve istatistik\u00ee olarak anlaml\u0131 bir ili\u015fki oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<h3>3.2. Kaldor\u2013Verdoorn yasas\u0131: \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve verimlilik<\/h3>\n<p>Kaldor\u2019un ikinci yasas\u0131, literat\u00fcrde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Verdoorn%27s_law\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Verdoorn yasas\u0131<\/strong><\/a> ile birlikte an\u0131l\u0131r. Bu yasa, imalat sanayinde <strong>\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131nda pozitif bir ili\u015fki<\/strong> oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrer. Mekanizma basittir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00dcretim hacmi artt\u0131k\u00e7a, firmalar sabit maliyetleri daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 \u00fczerine yayar,<\/li>\n<li>\u0130\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ve uzmanla\u015fma derinle\u015fir,<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6\u011frenerek verimlilik artar (learning by doing),<\/li>\n<li>Yeni teknolojilerin benimsenmesi h\u0131zlan\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ler, imalat sanayini di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc &#8220;artan getiriler&#8221; alan\u0131 h\u00e2line getirir. B\u00f6ylece imalat \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ayn\u0131 zamanda bu sekt\u00f6rdeki verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da tetikleyerek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le getirebilir.<\/p>\n<h3>3.3. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc yasa: \u0130stihdam yeniden tahsisi ve toplam verimlilik<\/h3>\n<p>Kaldor\u2019un \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc yasas\u0131, imalat sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e <strong>tar\u0131m ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimli hizmetlerden imalata i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong>, bunun da toplam verimlilik \u00fczerinde pozitif etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgular. Tar\u0131mda &#8220;gizli i\u015fsizlik&#8221; olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan verimsiz istihdam \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fck\u00e7e, hem tar\u0131mda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na verimlilik y\u00fckselir hem de imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, daha sonra yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde geli\u015ftirilen &#8220;kaynaklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimlilikten y\u00fcksek verimlili\u011fe yeniden tahsisi&#8221; mekanizmas\u0131yla uyumludur. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131, yaln\u0131zca sekt\u00f6r b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri aras\u0131ndaki korelasyonlar\u0131 de\u011fil, <strong>yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki rol\u00fcn\u00fc<\/strong> de i\u00e7eren dinamik bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunar.<\/p>\n<h3>3.5. Mek\u00e2nsal ve jeopolitik boyut: \u0130malat\u0131n merkezile\u015ftirici etkisi<\/h3>\n<p>Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131, imalat sanayinin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki dinamik etkilerini vurgularken, bu s\u00fcrecin <strong>mek\u00e2nsal ve jeopolitik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/strong> da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir. \u0130malat etraf\u0131nda olu\u015fan \u00fcretim ekosistemi; yan sanayi a\u011flar\u0131, lojistik altyap\u0131, finansal hizmetler, teknik e\u011fitim kurumlar\u0131 ve yo\u011fun i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden belirli co\u011frafi merkezlerde k\u00fcmelenme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. Bu k\u00fcmelenme, i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rarak demografiyi yeniden \u015fekillendirir; \u00e7ekim merkezleri etraf\u0131nda <strong>ekonomik ve idari bir merkezile\u015fme<\/strong> \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu merkezile\u015fme yaln\u0131zca ekonomik de\u011fildir. Vergi taban\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi, altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 ve kurumsal kapasitenin artmas\u0131, devletin fiskal ve b\u00fcrokratik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc de g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. <strong>D\u00fcnya-sistemleri literat\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn (Wallerstein, Arrighi vb.)<\/strong> i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere, sanayi ve ticaretin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek ekonomiler, uzun vadede asker\u00ee teknoloji, d\u0131\u015f politika esnekli\u011fi ve uluslararas\u0131 pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fc bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00e7evre ekonomilere k\u0131yasla daha avantajl\u0131 konuma gelebilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, imalat sanayinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sonu\u00e7lar i\u00e7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli de\u011fildir; kurumsal kalite, siyasal istikrar ve teknoloji politikas\u0131 gibi unsurlar belirleyici rol oynar. Bu nedenle, imalat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru olarak g\u00f6rmek, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkenin uzun vadeli jeopolitik konumlanmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir tercih anlam\u0131na da gelebilir; ancak bu tercih uygun kurumsal \u00e7er\u00e7eve ile birle\u015fti\u011finde kal\u0131c\u0131 stratejik kazan\u0131mlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/p>\n<p>Kaldor\u2019un hipotezleri, \u00f6zellikle II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 sanayile\u015fme d\u00f6neminde bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ampirik destek bulmu\u015ftur. Ancak son on y\u0131llarda, iki geli\u015fme bu \u00e7er\u00e7evenin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Erken sanayisizle\u015fme (premature deindustrialization)<\/strong>: Baz\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler, imalat sanayisinin GSYH ve istihdam pay\u0131 zirveye ula\u015fmadan \u00f6nce hizmetlere kaymaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, bu da klasik sanayile\u015fme yolunun izlenmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hizmetle\u015fme ve dijitalle\u015fme<\/strong>: Y\u00fcksek verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, art\u0131k baz\u0131 hizmet kollar\u0131nda (bili\u015fim, finansal hizmetler, dijital platformlar) da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zlenmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Buna ra\u011fmen, son y\u0131llarda yap\u0131lan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, imalat sanayi i\u00e7inde <strong>teknoloji yo\u011fun ve d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131k alt sekt\u00f6rlerin<\/strong> h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkiler \u00fcretebildi\u011fini, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknoloji yo\u011fun imalat\u0131n ise bu etkiyi ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sa\u011flayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla &#8220;manufacturing is the engine of growth&#8221; ifadesi bug\u00fcn daha temkinli okunmakta, &#8220;belirli t\u00fcr imalat ve **belirli ba\u011flamlarda&#8221; b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru&#8221; olarak yorumlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tart\u0131\u015fma, \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde imalat eksenine do\u011fru hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve verimlilik \u00fczerindeki etkisini analiz ederken, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn <strong>niteli\u011fini<\/strong> ve <strong>d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> dikkate alman\u0131n \u00f6nemini ortaya koyar.<\/p>\n<h2>4. \u00dcretim \u0130mk\u00e2nlar\u0131 E\u011frisi \u00dczerinden \u0130\u00e7 Talep ve \u0130hracat Odakl\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fcme Senaryolar\u0131<\/h2>\n<h3>4.1. \u0130ki eksenli \u00dc\u0130E modeli: \u0130\u00e7 talep vs ihracat\/imalat<\/h3>\n<p>Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, makalenin \u00e7ekirdek sorusuna yan\u0131t vermek i\u00e7in \u00dc\u0130E\u2019yi iki eksenli basit bir model olarak kullan\u0131yoruz:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>X ekseni: \u0130\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (in\u015faat, yerel hizmetler, kamuya d\u00f6n\u00fck harcamalarla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen kollar),<\/li>\n<li>Y ekseni: \u0130hracat ve imalat odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (d\u0131\u015f talebe dayanan imalat, turizm ve belirli hizmet ihracat\u0131).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu iki eksen, elbette ekonominin tam resmini vermez; ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejilerini <strong>&#8220;i\u00e7e d\u00f6n\u00fck\u2013d\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fck&#8221;<\/strong> ve <strong>&#8220;d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimlilik\u2013y\u00fcksek verimlilik&#8221;<\/strong> ayr\u0131m\u0131 \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in i\u015fe yarayan, stilize bir ara\u00e7 sunar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerindeki her nokta, i\u00e7 talep ve ihracat\/imalat bile\u015fiminde farkl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejisini temsil eder. E\u011frinin tamam\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru kaymas\u0131, her iki eksende de daha y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim kapasitesine i\u015faret eder; bu kayman\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi, verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve teknolojiye ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>4.2. \u0130\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosu<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosunda, ekonomi \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde X ekseni y\u00f6n\u00fcne a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir. Bu, \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat ve yerel hizmetler gibi, k\u0131sa vadede istihdam ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme yaratma kapasitesi y\u00fcksek, ancak verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir bile\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu senaryonun k\u0131sa ve uzun d\u00f6nem etkileri, \u015fu \u015fekilde \u00f6zetlenebilir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>K\u0131sa d\u00f6nem<\/strong>: Kamu harcamalar\u0131, kredi geni\u015flemesi veya finansal ko\u015fullardaki gev\u015feme ile i\u00e7 talep canland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r; in\u015faat ve yerel hizmetler h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcr; GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Orta\u2013uzun d\u00f6nem<\/strong>: Verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u00dc\u0130E\u2019nin d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru yap\u0131sal kaymas\u0131 zay\u0131f kal\u0131r; b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha \u00e7ok &#8220;e\u011fri \u00fczerinde nokta hareketi&#8221; ile a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r. Teknoloji, \u00f6\u011frenme ve \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri kanallar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak y\u00fckselmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm literat\u00fcr\u00fc, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn tar\u0131m veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimli hizmetlerden yine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimli ba\u015fka alanlara kaymas\u0131n\u0131n, toplam verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu durumda \u00dc\u0130E, i\u00e7 talep eksenine do\u011fru geni\u015f bir kullan\u0131labilir alan sunsa bile, e\u011frinin kendisi&#8221; dar ve i\u00e7e yak\u0131n kalabilir; yani ekonomi, potansiyelinin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kullanamamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>4.3. \u0130hracat\/imalat odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosu<\/h3>\n<p>\u0130hracat ve imalat odakl\u0131 senaryoda, ekonomi \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde Y ekseni y\u00f6n\u00fcne a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir. Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131 ile birle\u015fti\u011finde bu senaryonun \u00f6zellikleri \u015fu \u015fekilde \u00f6zetlenebilir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130malat sanayinde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri ve \u00f6\u011frenme s\u00fcre\u00e7leri sayesinde verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikler.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130malat\u0131n ara mal\u0131 ve sermaye mal\u0131 talebi, di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rler \u00fczerinde \u00e7arpan etkisi yarat\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>D\u0131\u015f talebe dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli, d\u00f6viz kazand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 faaliyetleri art\u0131rarak d\u0131\u015f k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 nispeten gev\u015fetebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu mekanizmalar, \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde sadece &#8220;e\u011fri \u00fczerinde bir noktadan di\u011ferine hareket&#8221; anlam\u0131na gelmez; ayn\u0131 zamanda <strong>e\u011frinin imalat\/ ihracat y\u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u00f6nmesi ve d\u0131\u015fa kaymas\u0131<\/strong> bi\u00e7iminde yorumlanabilir. Yani hem sekt\u00f6rel kompozisyon de\u011fi\u015fir hem de ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim kapasitesi artar.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte, g\u00fcncel literat\u00fcr, bu mekanizman\u0131n ko\u015fullu \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgular. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojili, \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomilerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ithal girdiye dayanan imalat kollar\u0131, bu dinamikleri daha zay\u0131f tetikler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ihracat\/imalat odakl\u0131 bir stratejinin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilmesi i\u00e7in, se\u00e7ilen imalat kollar\u0131n\u0131n <strong>teknoloji yo\u011funlu\u011fu<\/strong>, <strong>\u00f6\u011frenme potansiyeli<\/strong> ve <strong>k\u00fcresel de\u011fer zincirlerine entegrasyon derecesi<\/strong> kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>5. T\u00fcrkiye \u0130\u00e7in Stilize Bir \u00dc\u0130E Anlat\u0131s\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin son otuz y\u0131l\u0131, \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde \u00fc\u00e7 stilize nokta \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Ama\u00e7, ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 tarihsel analiz yapmak de\u011fil, b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejilerinin \u00dc\u0130E ve Kaldor \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle nas\u0131l okunabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektir.<\/p>\n<h3>5.1. Nokta A: 1990\u2019lar \u2013 k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve dalgal\u0131 bile\u015fim<\/h3>\n<p>1990\u2019lar, y\u00fcksek enflasyon, finansal krizler ve makroekonomik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klarla karakterize edilen bir d\u00f6nem olarak, \u00dc\u0130E\u2019nin nispeten i\u00e7e yak\u0131n ve d\u00fczensiz kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir evreye benzetilebilir. Tar\u0131m, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimli hizmetler ve geleneksel imalat kollar\u0131 \u00f6nemli yer tutar; d\u0131\u015f talep ekseni g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahiptir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00dc\u0130E hem i\u00e7e d\u00f6n\u00fck hem de \u015fekil olarak dard\u0131r; potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131, krizler ve dalgalanmalarla kesintiye u\u011framaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>5.2. Nokta B: 2000\u2019ler \u2013 ihracat ve entegrasyonla geni\u015fleyen \u00dc\u0130E<\/h3>\n<p>2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda uygulanan makroekonomik istikrar programlar\u0131, AB ile entegrasyon s\u00fcreci ve k\u00fcresel likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130hracata dayal\u0131 imalat sanayinin ve turizmin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinde <strong>ihracat\/imalat ekseni y\u00f6n\u00fcnde anlaml\u0131 bir hareket<\/strong> olarak yorumlanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin ampirik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, sanayi \u00fcretimi ile GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi aras\u0131nda Kaldor\u2019un birinci yasas\u0131yla tutarl\u0131, pozitif ve anlaml\u0131 ili\u015fkiler bulmu\u015ftur. Sanayi \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f, hem do\u011frudan GSYH\u2019ye katk\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f hem de verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve istihdam yeniden tahsisi kanallar\u0131 \u00fczerinden b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamiklerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u0130E metaforu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 1990\u2019lara k\u0131yasla daha d\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fck, daha geni\u015f bir \u00fcretim kapasitesine sahip h\u00e2le gelmi\u015f; e\u011fri hem imalat ekseni y\u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f hem de d\u0131\u015fa kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h3>5.3. Nokta C: Son d\u00f6nem \u2013 hizmetle\u015fme, in\u015faat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma riski<\/h3>\n<p>Son on y\u0131lda ise, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme bile\u015fiminde <strong>in\u015faat ve baz\u0131 yerel hizmetlerin<\/strong> a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n imalat sanayinde katma de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir. \u0130\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck altyap\u0131 projeleri ve konut yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemi\u015f; ancak verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve teknolojik derinle\u015fme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Kaldor \u00e7er\u00e7evesinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sanayi \u00fcretiminin GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerindeki itici rol\u00fc zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara duyarl\u0131 h\u00e2le gelebilir. \u00dc\u0130E metaforu ile ifade edilirse, ekonomi k\u0131smen <strong>i\u00e7 talep ekseni y\u00f6n\u00fcne geri kaym\u0131\u015f<\/strong>, \u00dc\u0130E\u2019nin d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru geni\u015flemesi ise yava\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum, potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131n\u0131n ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek bir &#8220;s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma&#8221; riskini beraberinde getirir.<\/p>\n<h2>6. Politika \u0130mplikasyonlar\u0131 ve Veri Temelli \u0130zleme<\/h2>\n<p>\u00dc\u0130E ve Kaldor yasalar\u0131n\u0131 bir arada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek, b\u00fcy\u00fcme politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 temel noktaya i\u015faret eder:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Sekt\u00f6rel kompozisyon sadece muhasebe de\u011fil, dinamik bir tercih meselesidir.<\/strong> \u0130\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, k\u0131sa vadede siyasi ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan cazip olabilir; ancak verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00dc\u0130E\u2019nin d\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru yap\u0131sal kaymas\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130malat sanayi, niteli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorudur.<\/strong> Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji yo\u011fun, ihracata d\u00f6n\u00fck imalat kollar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri ve \u00f6\u011frenme kanallar\u0131 sayesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkiler \u00fcretebilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn y\u00f6n\u00fc ve h\u0131z\u0131, veriyle izlenebilir olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong> Sekt\u00f6rel katma de\u011fer paylar\u0131, verimlilik g\u00f6stergeleri, ihracat kompozisyonu ve istihdam kaymalar\u0131n\u0131n birlikte izlenmesi, \u00dc\u0130E\u2019nin fiilen nereye do\u011fru hareket etti\u011fini anlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdedir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>7. Sonu\u00e7<\/h2>\n<p>Bu makale, <strong>\u00fcretim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 e\u011frisi<\/strong> ile <strong>Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> birle\u015ftirerek, T\u00fcrkiye gibi orta gelirli bir ekonomi i\u00e7in <strong>i\u00e7 talep odakl\u0131<\/strong> ve <strong>ihracat\/imalat odakl\u0131<\/strong> b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dc\u0130E, sekt\u00f6rel kompozisyon ve potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi g\u00f6rselle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in basit ama g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ara\u00e7 sunarken, Kaldor\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme yasalar\u0131 imalat sanayinin \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri, verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve istihdam yeniden tahsisi yoluyla b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki dinamik etkilerini vurgulamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye deneyimi, imalat ve ihracat eksenine do\u011fru kay\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirebildi\u011fini, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k i\u00e7 talep ve in\u015faat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin uzun vadeli verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. G\u00fcncel literat\u00fcr, &#8220;imalat b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motorudur&#8221; ifadesini ko\u015fulsuz bir yasa olarak de\u011fil, <strong>belirli ba\u011flamlarda ve belirli imalat t\u00fcrleri i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli bir hipotez<\/strong> olarak yorumlamay\u0131 \u00f6nermektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesinde \u00dc\u0130E ve Kaldorcu \u00e7er\u00e7eve birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hem makro sonu\u00e7lar hem de sekt\u00f6rel detaylar daha tutarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde analiz edilebilir. Veri temelli izleme ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gelecekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme yollar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in yal\u0131n ama analitik bir dil sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>Kaynak\u00e7a<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Cantore, N., Clara, M., Lavopa, A. ve Soare, C. (2017). Manufacturing as an engine of growth: Which is the best fuel? <em>Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 42<\/em>, 56\u201366.<\/li>\n<li>Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes of the slow rate of economic growth of the United Kingdom. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<\/li>\n<li>McMillan, M. ve Rodrik, D. (2011). Globalization, structural change and productivity growth. <em>NBER Working Paper<\/em> No. 17143.<\/li>\n<li>Pacheco-L\u00f3pez, P. ve Thirlwall, A. P. (2013). A new interpretation of Kaldor\u2019s first growth law for open developing economies. University of Kent, School of Economics, Working Paper.<\/li>\n<li>Pata, U. K. ve Zengin, H. (2020). Testing Kaldor\u2019s growth laws for Turkey: New evidence from symmetric and asymmetric causality methods. <em>\u00c7ank\u0131r\u0131 Karatekin \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi ve \u0130dari Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi Dergisi, 10<\/em>(2), 713\u2013729.<\/li>\n<li>Thirlwall, A. P. (2014). A plain man\u2019s guide to Kaldor\u2019s growth laws. In: <em>Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics<\/em>. Palgrave Macmillan.<\/li>\n<li>Yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, sanayile\u015fme ve ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerine \u00e7e\u015fitli UNIDO ve UNCTAD raporlar\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>Wallerstein, I. (1974). <em>The Modern World-System I: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century<\/em>. New York: Academic Press.<\/li>\n<li>Arrighi, G. (1994). <em>The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of Our Times<\/em>. London: Verso.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu makale, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda klasik bir ara\u00e7 olan \u00fcretim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 e\u011frisi\u00a0Kaldor yasalar\u0131 ve yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm literat\u00fcr\u00fc ile birlikte ele alarak, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in sade ama tutarl\u0131 bir analitik \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00f6nermektedir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6nce \u00dc\u0130E, potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve sekt\u00f6rel bile\u015fim ili\u015fkisi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmakta; ard\u0131ndan imalat sanayinin &#8220;b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru&#8221; olarak konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kaldorcu yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6zetlenmektedir. Daha sonra \u00dc\u0130E \u00fczerinden i\u00e7<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,47],"tags":[545,312],"class_list":{"0":"post-5634","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jeoekonomik-makro-veriler","8":"category-makro-ekonomik-analizler","9":"tag-kaldor","10":"tag-post-keynesyen"},"better_featured_image":{"id":5635,"alt_text":"\u00dcretim \u0130mkanlar\u0131 E\u011frisi ve Kaldor Post 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